Yemen’s Houthi rebels prepare for a long conflict with the US in the Red Sea

In late January, a U.S. Coast Guard patrol boat deployed in the Arabian Sea boarded a vessel from Iran suspected of transporting advanced weapons and military aid to areas of Yemen controlled by the Houthi rebel movement. Inside, as reported by the U.S. Central Command (Centcom), more than 200 packages containing components for making medium-range missiles and military communications equipment were seized, as well as parts for underwater drones.

Three weeks later, on February 18, Centcom announced that its naval forces in the Red Sea had destroyed an unmanned underwater vehicle launched by the Houthis, the first detected in the escalating violence in the region since November, when the Yemeni Islamist movement began disrupting shipping along this crucial trade route to press for an Israeli ceasefire in Gaza.

The use of these elusive underwater drones has been interpreted as further evidence that the U.S. military deployment in the area and the attacks it is directing against Yemeni targets are not deterring the group. In this sense, the movement, which counts on the support of Iran, has fortified its positions in recent weeks and has adapted its tactics with the apparent intention of waging a long conflict with Washington.

The U.S. strategy to curb the Houthis has included their designation as a terrorist organization and sanctions, in addition to a large naval deployment in the Red Sea to protect commercial shipping and air and missile strikes, carried out with the U.K. and other allied countries, against dozens of the movement’s military targets in Yemen. There have been at least four rounds of strikes since January.

The Houthis, however, have not been deterred and since mid-January the militia has carried out 16 attacks, according to Centcom. In one of the latest, on February 19, they fired two missiles at a Greek-flagged, U.S.-owned ship headed for the Yemeni port of Aden to deliver humanitarian aid. On February 18, a Belize-flagged, British-owned ship that sank last Saturday with thousands of tons of fertilizer on board was hit with missiles.

Fortified trenches and tunnels

The Yemeni rebel group has in recent weeks expanded and fortified its trenches and tunnels in the remote and rugged mountains of Hajjah province, northwest of the capital, Sana’a, to better protect its military arsenal — especially its stock of missiles — and to launch attacks from safer positions facing the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Bloomberg News reported, citing sources on the ground.

The Houthis have also used new weaponry to expand their attacks, including underwater drones, which are more difficult to manufacture than aerial drones but cheaper to produce than missiles. They are also more complicated to intercept and pose a threat to the most vulnerable parts of ships. The leader of the Houthis, the secretive Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, was recently quoted on a sympathetic Yemeni channel as predicting that the introduction of this new underwater technology “will worry the enemy.”

The militia has also used greater mobility to circumvent U.S. attacks, taking advantage of Washington’s lack of solid intelligence. “Since the campaign [of attacks] began, I have not seen a single target that differs from those that have been attacked since 2015 and until the truce with the Saudis,” notes Yemeni political analyst Ammar al-Aulaqi, referring to the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen against the Houthis following the fall of the internationally recognized government in Sana’a.

The Houthis are taking advantage of their confrontation with the United States and advocacy of the Palestinian cause — which is well-supported among Yemenis and throughout the region — to expand their own ranks. Since last October, the militia has accelerated its recruitment drives and is estimated to have enlisted tens of thousands of new fighters. “They are using their fight against the Big Devil, the U.S. forces, to revive their recruitment rhetoric,” Al-Aulaqi notes.

Iran’s provision of military aid, meanwhile, is largely continuing. “The only new trend is the increase in seizures by U.S. vessels. [But] the modus operandi remains the same: small wooden boats, historically used for fishing and transporting goods, [are now being] used to transport illicit weapons,” notes Mohammed al-Basha, a researcher with the Navanti analysis group.

Strategic doubts

Faced with this scenario, senior U.S. officials have admitted in recent days that their strategy has reduced attacks, but has not stopped them entirely. And its military approach has raised doubts from the outset because it requires the deployment of very expensive personnel and weapons compared to the cost of the Yemenis’ drones and missiles.

Gabrielle Reid, associate director of intelligence at security consultancy S-RM, believes that while U.S.-led airstrikes may temporarily reduce their stockpiles of weapons and materiel, “the current strategy is unlikely to fundamentally degrade their capabilities in the coming weeks or months.”

The White House strategy in the Red Sea contrasts with that adopted against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. There, the U.S. military, which has troops on the ground, has chosen to kill several commanders of militia groups and has succeeded in halting attacks on U.S. positions, which had resumed in the wake of the Israeli invasion of Gaza.

Washington also points to Tehran as a major supplier of weapons and military technology to the Houthis. But fear of broadening the conflict into an escalation that would jeopardize the truce with Riyadh is seen as holding back more aggressive measures. The legal limits on U.S. action and the Houthis’ insistence that they will only stop attacks when Israel ceases its aggression in Gaza generate additional doubts.

The Houthi attacks have had a heavy impact on world trade. Shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Gulf of Aden in the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea, has fallen by almost 57%, according to the maritime trade monitoring platform PortWatch, and traffic through the Cape of Good Hope, off South Africa, has risen by more than 100%. Up to October 2023, more than 10% of world trade flowed through the Red Sea.

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