The owner of Russia’s Wagner Group military contractor claimed Wednesday that his troops have extended their gains in the Ukrainian stronghold of Bakhmut, but it remained unclear how long the grinding fight that has exacted heavy losses might continue.
The battle for the city the Ukrainians have dubbed “fortress Bakhmut” has become emblematic of the way each side has tried to wear down the other. Russian forces must go through Bakhmut in order to push deeper into the areas in Donetsk province they don’t yet control, but Western officials say that capturing the city won’t change the course of the war.
Bakhmut has been the focus of much of the fighting in recent months, as each side hopes it can inflict severe damage on other there – while buying time to prepare offensives elsewhere. It’s not clear which has paid a higher price in the battle, which has lasted six months and reduced the city with a prewar population of more than 70,000 to a smoldering wasteland.
Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose troops have spearheaded the fight in Bakhmut, said they have taken full control of all districts east of the Bakhmutka River that crosses the city. The city’s center lies west of the river.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian officials commented on Prigozhin’s claim. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank that closely monitors the fighting, said Russian forces were likely in control in the areas cited by Prigozhin following a Ukrainian withdrawal.
Russian troops have enveloped the city from three sides, leaving only a narrow corridor leading west. The only highway west has been targeted by Russian artillery fire, forcing Ukrainian forces defending the city to rely increasingly on country roads, which are hard to use before the muddy ground dries.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed Monday not to retreat from Bakhmut after chairing a meeting with his top generals.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday that its seizure would allow Russia to press its offensive farther into the Donetsk region, one of the four Ukrainian regions that Moscow illegally annexed in September.
In a blustery video statement recorded near a World War II monument in Bakhmut, Prigozhin echoed that rationale, saying the prospective Russian push would make “the entire world shudder.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged that the Russians could seize the city soon.
“What we see is that Russia is throwing in more troops, more forces, and what Russia lacks in quality they try to make up in quantity,” he told reporters on the sidelines of an EU defense ministers meeting in Stockholm. “They have suffered big losses but at the same time we cannot rule out that Bakhmut may eventually fall in the coming days.”
But like other Western officials, he played down the significance of Bakhmut’s potential capture, arguing that this “does not necessarily reflect any turning point of the war, and it just highlights that we should not underestimate Russia.”
The Ukrainian military has already strengthened defensive lines west of Bakhmut to block the Russian advance, including in the nearby town of Chasiv Yar that sits on a hill. Farther west are the heavily fortified Ukrainian strongholds of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
The ISW observed that Russia was also likely short of the mechanized forces it would need to push on from Bakhmut.
On Wednesday, Russian forces shelled scores of towns and villages in the Donetsk region and other areas in Ukraine’s east and south, Ukraine’s presidential office said.
As the fighting raged in the east, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met with Zelensky in the Ukrainian capital early Wednesday. The UN said that he would “discuss the continuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in all its aspects, as well as other pertinent issues.”
That deal allows Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports and permits Russia to export food and fertilizers. It’s considered critical to easing food shortages and bringing down prices in many parts of the world.
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