The year of revolts

On Saturday, the Egyptian armed forces removed demonstrators camped out in Cairo's Tahrir Square, killing at least 10 people and injuring around 300 more. The incidents show that hopes of a peaceful political process, following the overthrow of President Mubarak, have so far been misplaced. The Egyptian Revolution was possible only because the military decided not to crush demonstrations — now that same military is limiting the pace of change.

A year has passed since Mohamed Bouazizi, a Tunisian market trader, set himself on fire to protest against the lack of freedom in his country. Bouazizi's gesture set off a chain reaction of further protests throughout the Arab world, which first removed the Tunisian leader, and then Egypt's, followed by those of both Libya and Yemen. Syria's Bashar al-Assad may be the next. A year is not enough time to assess how events will unfold, but these days will change the Arab world forever, and will impact on global geopolitics in ways that are still to be determined.

Tunisia has held its first free elections ever, which have given Islamist parties a majority. This has unsettled many in the West, despite the conciliatory gestures by the new president, Moncef Marzouki. The country must now draft a new Constitution, and set up a parliamentary system in which the Islamists will have to work with other political forces.

The Islamists have also won widespread support in the Egyptian elections. With the count still unfinished, it nevertheless looks as though more radical groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists will emerge as the leading forces. Unlike in Tunisia, it is unclear how Egypt's transition will pan out. The Constitution has been reformed, allowing for greater plurality, but the armed forces continue to wield enormous power, as events on Saturday showed. If the Islamist parties do emerge victorious from the electoral process, the military may well use this as an excuse to slow down the transition to civilian rule.

Unclear future

The future of Libya is still impossible to predict, given the political and regional divisions wrought by the civil war. Similarly, the outlook in Yemen remains unclear, although the opposition to Saleh does not show any signs of degenerating into open conflict.

One thing that has been learned over the last year, is that violence makes it much harder for differing political factions to reach agreement. This is worth bearing in mind when trying to assess what will happen in Syria, should the army be divided over support for the regime or for the opposition, and where there is growing armed resistance to Assad's forces. The Syrian president has now lost all legitimacy, but each day that passes, and with each new victim, the uncertainty about the country's future after Assad is only heightened.

The Arab world began to demand the right to live freely a year ago, and over the last 12 months its peoples have made a great deal of progress in achieving that goal — although, as recent events in Egypt all too clearly illustrate, they still face many more difficulties and uncertainties.