The only way is early elections

The Prime Minister's decision on Friday to hold early elections on November 20 offers a glimmer of hope amid a generally gloomy political and economic landscape. As José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero pointed out when he made the announcement, the new electoral calendar now provides a degree of certainty; at the same time it brings to a close a near-unsustainable legislature. The Socialist Party's loss of credibility, as reflected in the opinion polls, is hindering the work required if the economy is to begin to recover. Friday also saw the release of new unemployment figures, with a modest reduction in joblessness in the second quarter. News came that ratings agency Moody's is threatening to put Spain's Aa2 rating on review for possible downgrade, while the country's risk premium refuses to fall below 300 basis points. There was no need to heighten the social and economic decline with the political uncertainty that has gripped Spain over the last year.

This lengthy and profound economic crisis has pinned the government on the ropes throughout its current term in office and has now brought about its early exit. It is not just about creating jobs; this will be a long and slow recovery, involving further reform, bad news, and spending cuts. Faced with such a bleak outlook, seeing the legislature through to its bitter end in March made little political sense.

Bringing the elections forward not only answers the electorate's demands, but also benefits the two candidates campaigning to lead the next government. The de facto twin leadership of the Socialist Party following the election of former Interior Minister Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba was a likely source of problems, and that would have increased over the next eight months. The most recent polls show that Rubalcaba has reduced the Popular Party (PP)'s lead by three points, and will perhaps have encouraged the Socialist Party to keep campaigning in the hope of reducing the PP's seven-point lead further between now and November.

Mariano Rajoy, the PP leader, has finally obtained the early elections he has so vigorously demanded. Early elections can only be to his benefit.

Above and beyond electoral calculations, the most positive aspect of the decision is that it will bring an end to the stalemate of a spent government prevented from taking the ambitious initiatives that this country needs, and an opposition that does nothing more than repeat the mantra that a change of administration is in itself the solution to the current crisis. The country's economic impoverishment is now matched by a near-bankruptcy of political thinking that is out of step with a real democracy.

Zapatero is right when he says that from now on political debate will have to move beyond the date of the elections, and onto specific proposals. Mariano Rajoy would be doing this country a great service were he to rise to the challenge and tell the electorate just how he intends to get Spain out of its current mess, instead of nice-sounding but empty words about the need to regenerate Spain's institutions or improve education.

The PP is now surely obliged to abandon its policy of attrition and begin working on specific proposals that will convince the electorate that Rubalcaba - who is considered a better leader than Rajoy, according to the polls - should be sent straight to the opposition benches. In all likelihood, the current economic straits will favor the PP, as it has opposition parties in the rest of the world. But Rajoy cannot keep repeating that a change in government itself will generate the confidence needed, unless of course his only goal is to win the election, rather than acting for the greater good.

In reality, there is little reason to delay the elections for a further four months. Zapatero's reasons for doing so hold little water. The government has no major projects in hand between now and November that justify such a long wait. On the contrary, delaying the creation of a government until the end of December is wasting precious time to carry out reforms that will presumably help economic recovery. What's more, delaying the election date puts the 2012 budget at risk. Zapatero has said that it will be the incoming administration that will decide on spending for next year.

On a related note, the decision by the Socialist Party head of the regional government of Andalusia, José Antonio Griñán, not to bow to pressure from Madrid and to wait until March 2012 to hold elections, is to be applauded. He too is likely to lose his job, but Griñán also knows that his best chance of salvation is to distance himself and the Andalusian branch of the Socialist Party from the government's likely fate.