Leftist ex-army officer Humala surges in Peru's polls as elections loom

Peru's presidential race is in a close three-way tie with a leftist former army officer surging to first place in the latest polls after months of trailing behind several of the Andean nation's major front runners for the election to be held on April 10. Ollanta Humala, who lost the 2006 election to President Alan García, has garnered the first-place spot, with a slight lead over his closest rival Keiko Fujimori, according to the polling firm Ipsos-Apoyo, which released its results on Monday.

Humala, a candidate for the Peru Wins coalition that includes his own Nationalist Party, got a 22.8-percent favorable showing compared to 22.6 percent for Fujimori, the 35-year-old daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori.

Former President Alejandro Toledo, who just two weeks ago was favored to win, claimed the third spot in the nationwide survey with 21.6 percent. If the close trend continues up to election day, Peruvians will have to go to the polls for a second round to select from the two top vote-getters.

Two other candidates trailing are Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, a former energy and mines minister of the Alliance for Great Change, with 15.8 percent, and Luis Castañeda, a former Lima mayor of the Alliance for National Solidarity, with 15 percent. Last year, Castañeda was the lead candidate in all opinion surveys. But the race is a volatile one because at least one-fourth of Peruvians say they are still undecided.

Humala's sudden rise from third to first place from the last poll taken earlier this month came as a surprise to many. Alfredo Torres, director of Ipsos-Apoyo, said that Humala has more support in rural communities rather than in metropolitan areas. "The rise in support for Humala, at the expense of Toledo, this past week is shown among the lower-class sectors. His rise has been seen throughout Peru, more so in provinces than in Lima. Humala has also gained strength in Lima but Toledo has lost strength in all the provinces," Torres told a Peruvian television station.

Reacting to his slip in the polls, Toledo, who served as president from 2001-2006, congratulated Humala for unseating him but stressed that "Peru needs to consolidate the economic growth it is experiencing."

Once an ally of Venezuela's Hugo Chávez, Humala is campaigning for a stronger state role in the economy and "recovering" control of Peru's profitable gas and mining industries from foreign-owned companies. This could be detrimental for a country that saw a 9.8-percent growth rate in 2009, one of the world's fastest.

While some of his proposals reflect policies instigated by Chávez in his own country, Humala has distanced himself from the Venezuelan leader, who is unpopular with most Peruvians.

"We don't want to a return to the past," said Toledo, who also accused his rival of wanting to change the Constitution and "scaring investors," many of whom came to Peru invited during Toledo's term in office.

Humala's critics have also accused former Brazilian President Inácio Lula da Silva of intervening in the race by lending him advisors from his Workers Party (PT).

Kuczynski, whose dual US-Peruvian nationality and high earnings from gas investments in Texas have also come into question, denounced the "foreign intervention" but acknowledged that "Brazilians are a lot better people than Chávez, in any case."

The former minister, an outspoken millionaire, pledges to renounce his US citizenship- which he obtained during 20 years in exile- if he wins the election, and has asked voters to weigh in his wealth as a positive factor. "I am not going to steal," he says.

Presidential pardons for high-profile inmates- in this case, family members of two of the major candidates- have also crept up as an issue in the campaign race. Some predict that if he wins, Humala will pardon his brother, Antauro, a former army major who is serving a 25-year prison term for a 2005 uprising against Toledo in which four police officers were killed. Many also believe, and indeed many supporters are demanding, that Keiko Fujimori pardon her father, the former president, if she should win. The daughter suggested it after his convictions on human rights abuses and corruption charges in 2009. Former President Fujimori is serving a 30-year sentence.

On the social front, all candidates say they will help battle Peru's rising crime rates. Homosexual marriage has also become an issue with Toledo announcing this month that he will fight to legalize it. Both Kuczynski and Humala have publicly come out against gay marriage.