Health impacts of global warming hit record levels but governments continue to fund fossil fuels

The climate crisis has direct impacts on human health, and an international team of scientists from various academic institutions and organizations has been analyzing these effects since 2016. As global warming progresses, the toll on health continues to rise. The latest Lancet Countdown report, featuring contributions from 122 researchers, reveals “the most concerning findings yet in the collaboration’s eight years of monitoring.”

“Of the 15 indicators monitoring climate change-related health hazards, exposures, and impacts, 10 reached concerning new records in their most recent year of data,” the report warns. These indicators include heat-related mortality among individuals over 65, which has increased by 167% compared to data from the 1990s; a rise in the number of hours of sleep lost due to high temperatures; and the spread of infectious diseases such as dengue, malaria, West Nile virus, and vibriosis, which are now reaching areas previously free of these diseases due to climate change.

However, the report — published less than two weeks before the start of COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan — not only accounts for the damage but also highlights the underlying causes. “The relentless expansion of fossil fuels and record-breaking greenhouse gas emissions compounds these dangerous health impacts,” says Marina Romanello, executive director of Lancet Countdown.

These fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) are the main sources of the greenhouse gases that are overheating the planet. Their concentration in the atmosphere continues to rise, and as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) cautioned this week, they threaten to entrap humanity in a “vicious feedback loop” of warming.

“Far from declining, global energy-related CO2 emissions reached an all-time high in 2023,” the report warns. “Oil and gas companies are reinforcing the global dependence on fossil fuels and — partly fuelled by the high energy prices and windfall profits of the global energy crisis — most are further expanding their fossil fuel production plans.”

The researchers analyzed the plans of the world’s 114 largest oil and gas companies, which account for 80% of global oil and gas production. In last year’s edition, they cautioned that the expansion plans of these companies would lead to emissions by 2040 that are 173% above the levels necessary to meet the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement — keeping warming, currently about 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, from exceeding 1.5 degrees. However, the gap is widening. Using data from March 2024 on new fossil fuel projects as a reference, the researchers now estimate that these companies’ emissions in 2040 will be 189% higher.

Many of these oil companies are publicly owned, meaning that thanks to government support for these expansionist strategies, “the world is increasingly off-track from meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.” Private companies also benefit from government support, such as public subsidies for fuel production and consumption.

The report explains how dependence on fossil fuels led many countries to experience sharp increases in energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. To mitigate the impact on their populations, “many governments resorted to increasing their explicit fossil fuel subsidies.” Researchers estimate that the net value of these subsidies amounted to $1.4 trillion in 2022 alone. “Substantial financial resources are being allocated to activities that harm health and perpetuate a fossil fuel-based economy,” they warn.

Climate change experts and institutions such as the U.N. have long called for the elimination of these public subsidies, which obstruct the advance of renewable energies. While it is widely recognized that fossil fuels are responsible for emissions that heat the planet, direct references to them have traditionally been avoided in the final declarations of climate summits over the last three decades. At these conferences, the texts must be approved by consensus from nearly 200 negotiating countries, and direct mentions of fossil fuels have always faced opposition. However, at last year’s summit, COP28, held in Dubai, an explicit commitment from all governments to transition away from fossil fuels was achieved, albeit without specific deadlines.

Climate experts and activists hope that this year’s summit will uphold that commitment, especially as governments prepare to present their new climate plans aimed at reducing emissions in 2024. The upcoming summit will heavily focus on the climate financing necessary for developing nations to transition away from fossil fuels. Recently, the U.N. warned of the risk of a two-speed energy transition, where resource-limited nations may struggle to access clean energy sources.

“There is an urgent need for financial mechanisms to support countries in the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions,” the Lancet Countdown report states. “Although renewable energy could provide power to remote locations, its adoption is lagging, particularly in the most vulnerable countries.”

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