Florida’s Cuban-American voters: A story of Republican love and Trump fervor

The day Enrique Tur met Donald Trump, he was tired after a grueling 15-hour drive in a rented blue Ford from his home in Rockwall, Texas, to Asheville, North Carolina. But nothing about him showed signs of exhaustion. He was impeccable, with his light white shirt, black pants, a cross hanging from his left ear and his hair intact, with his hair neatly styled, seemingly set with hairspray.

Just weeks prior, photojournalist Evan Vucci had captured the iconic image of the Republican candidate at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania — an indomitable Trump, flanked by bodyguards, raising his fist against a backdrop of the American flag, as blood ran down his face. The assassination attempt on Trump — who was hit in the right ear with an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle wielded by Thomas Matthew Crooks — caught Enrique’s attention. He went to his tattoo studio outside Dallas, grabbed Vucci’s photo, made a nearly exact 30-by-44-inch oil painting, and then found out where the nearest rally was to personally deliver the artwork to Trump.

He rented the blue Ford, said goodbye to his wife and children, and drove as fast as he could to arrive on time at the Thomas Wolfe Auditorium at Harrah’s Cherokee Center on August 14. “I arrived, I was nervous, alone. There were a lot of Americans and white people there, I felt out of place, but I said, well, I came to bring what I do, I don’t have to please anyone,” he says. “I swallowed hard, put on my glasses so I wouldn’t have to make eye contact, and tore the wrapping off the painting.”

Minutes later, Enrique became a sensation at the rally, and with the local press and security guards, who escorted him to a room so he could present his gift to Trump.

Enrique says meeting Trump is like meeting, say, a grandfather. He looks younger in person, is pleasant, and shook his hand at least seven times. He is tall. Trump even noted the height difference when they stood side by side, comparing his own 192 cm stature to Enrique’s 175 cm. Trump was also exceedingly complimentary about the painting, even reprimanding a guard who touched the back of the artwork. This gesture led Enrique to believe that Trump was not only an art enthusiast but also a sensitive individual.

Trump asked him a few questions in English, which Enrique answered as best he could, because he says the words weren’t coming out. Despite the language barrier, he felt the experience was worth it. In that moment, it was as if he was reflecting on his entire life: the day he left his home in Palma Soriano, in eastern Cuba; crossing the border at age 24; and his first of many jobs as a builder, truck driver, barber, cook, and picture framer. Now, standing on the verge of voting for the first time, Enrique has no doubt that he will cast his ballot for Trump, from whom he has picked up more than one motivational phrase.

“Like when he says ‘never give up,’ I always keep that phrase in my head. He himself has never given up, he is a millionaire, they have tried to kill him three times, he is someone you can admire,” says Enrique.

He believes that Trump is the only candidate capable of bringing about change for Cuba. “Trump likes to be first in everything he does. I want him to help us get out of this situation and recover our land. The other candidate won’t do anything for Cuba. That woman isn’t ready to be president,” he says, referring to Kamala Harris.

He is not alone in this belief. A significant portion of the Cuban community in the United States — approximately 2.5 million citizens, the majority of whom live in South Florida — will vote for the Republican candidate in a state that the Democrats long ago gave up on winning. A recent survey conducted by Florida International University (FIU) confirms what is already evident on the streets, on the billboards along the Palmetto Expressway, and on the boats that sail through Miami Bay with a giant Trump head: 68% of Cuban-American voters plan to vote for the Republican candidate, doubling the support he received in 2016, while only 23% intend to vote for Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, 5% of voters remain undecided.

The eternal frustration

The FIU poll reveals additional insights about the Cuban voter demographic: supporters of Harris tend to be younger than those backing Trump, and the Democrat also appeals to voters with higher levels of education. Overall, economic issues are their primary concern, with worries about rising rent, the cost of gasoline, supermarket prices, and the potential impact of inflation on their wages taking precedence. Following economic issues, they express concerns about healthcare, immigration, and, importantly, the United States’ foreign policy towards Cuba.

Most Cuban voters are wondering whether the next U.S. president will be able to change the future of the island. Many view their vote as a reflection of their desires for Cuba — a direct message from Miami to Havana. Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute and a professor of Anthropology in the Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies at the University of Florida, says Cuban-American voters are “very diverse, to the extent that the community is also diverse, diverse in terms of its composition by age, gender, year of arrival in the United States, social class, race, place of residence.” He adds: “But at the same time, there is a dominant tendency towards conservatism and a very clear affiliation with the Republican Party and its presidential candidate.”

Since the wave of Cuban migrants following the Cuban Revolution in the 1960s, the Republican Party has focused on securing the Cuban vote, even sending representatives to the first naturalization ceremonies. “The recruitment effort began there,” explains Michael Bustamante, a professor at the University of Miami and author of Cuban Memory Wars. Other scholars trace the Republican shift to the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, when John F. Kennedy did not authorize an airstrike to support Cuban exiles in their battle against Castro’s forces.

“Many Cubans at that time felt betrayed by the Kennedy administration and the Democratic Party and gradually moved towards the Republican Party,” says Duany. But if the researcher had to pinpoint a key moment for the Cuban vote, he would say it was the 1980s, during the administration of Republican Ronald Reagan, who, according to him, won over many Cuban exiles.

Reagan engaged with the Cuban community in ways that other presidential candidates have imitated: he had coffee at the iconic Versailles restaurant in Little Havana. This tradition was continued by Trump, who, after pleading not guilty to 37 charges of improper handling of classified documents in a federal court, stopped by Versailles to order a Cuban coffee and croquettes, while his supporters sang “Happy Birthday” to him on his 77th birthday.

In contrast, Joe Biden has not prioritized Cuba in recent years, only visiting Miami late in the campaign. “When Biden finally made an appearance here, it was at the Ball and Chain club in Little Havana, a place where people with more or less a certain amount of power go. But he did not visit Hialeah, where many voters reside, including those enrolled in Obamacare — a program Trump has sought to eliminate multiple times. We have told them that they are not going where the voters are, that they have to invest money,” says Busatamente.

Trump has also endeared himself to the Cuban community in other ways. On one occasion, he was spotted in Miami waving a Cuban flag, and at another event, he and Melania visited the library of the Bay of Pigs Veterans Association. During this visit, he remarked — knowing his words would resonate with his audience — that his policy was focused on “maintaining pressure on Castro.” What’s more, last year, Trump held a rally at Milander Park in Hialeah, a city known for its Republican leanings where 95% of the Hispanic population is predominantly Cuban. Here, U.S. flags wave from businesses selling clothing, food, and medical supplies destined for Cuba.

Bustamante believes that Trump’s platform creates an emotional connection with a part of the Cuban electorate. “When Trump or his team comes to Miami to preach this very strong message against socialism, he connects with the people, with the frustration they feel, and that is enough. People connect with the message that blames [former president Barack] Obama for all the ills of the crisis, and with the anti-socialist rhetoric. And there is no strong local Democratic Party to try to respond to that message.”

The Democratic exception

Not all Cubans are Republicans, nor are all Republicans Trump supporters, but Trump undoubtedly has a stronghold in South Florida, which has an identity all of it own. People display flags bearing his name in their front yards, drive pickup trucks, and keep their AR-15s on hand in case efforts to build the border wall fail and crime rises. Some respond to questions about abortion with, “Why is it mandatory to wear a seatbelt?” They either follow or ignore influencer Alexander Otaola, and many get angry at the mere mention of Democrats Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, insisting that socialism — or worse, communism — will take root in the United States under the Democrats.

As president, Trump revived Cold War rhetoric and rolled back the rapprochement policy with Cuba that had been initiated by Barack Obama, who, during the 2012 elections, enjoyed unprecedented support from the Cuban electorate, securing 49% of their votes during that historic Democratic victory.

“During the Obama era, we saw a diversification of the Cuban vote,” says Bustamante. “Part of what was anticipated regarding a generational shift in the Cuban electorate was linked to the emergence of two or three generations of Cuban-Americans born in this country, who inherited their families’ trauma but had other perspectives. What has happened in recent years? That’s a question that needs further investigation.” Many conservative Cuban-Americans do not forgive Obama for his policy of rapprochement with Cuba. Many believe that this approach ultimately cost Hillary Clinton Florida’s 29 electoral votes in the 2016 election.

Trump, for his part, adopted an iron fist approach with Cuba, which included restrictions on travel, investments, and remittances, the closure of the embassy, the withdrawal of U.S. diplomatic personnel in Havana, and the designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism. Although the Republican has not managed to deliver the decisive blow to the Cuban government that exiles had hoped for, researchers agree that his influence among Cuban-American voters is now much stronger. “It seems to me that support for Trump has solidified within the Cuban community, particularly in Miami,” says Duany.

However, Trump does not have the support of Ingrid Verdes, 41, a Cuban-American who lives in North Bay Village, Miami. In contrast to many in her community, what concerns Verdes is the possibility that Trump could turn the United States into a kind of dictatorship. “He has referenced staying in power indefinitely on more than one occasion,” she says. “I am very worried that it will become a dictatorship. I am worried about the fanaticism surrounding him and the violence of his supporters. Cubans come from a dictatorship, and there are many toxic things we have normalized. They think that everything is Cuba-style communism, but they don’t even flinch when Trump says that he will govern indefinitely. They say “no to ‘socialism’ but they readily accept food stamps, Obamacare, Medicare, and any other of those benefits.”

Verdes says she is also concerned about other things “as a woman, lesbian and immigrant.” She does not feel a strong connection to the Democratic Party, nor does she have any fondness for the Republicans. She is also unwilling to vote for an independent party, as she views that choice as a “wasted vote.” For her, the choice in November is clear: she will be voting for Kamala Harris. “I am very excited about the possibility of having a female president for the first time in the history of the United States. Twenty years ago, when no presidential nominee supported gay marriage, Kamala Harris was performing one of the first same-sex unions.”

Trump’s anti-immigrant discourse

Neither Donald Trump’s racist and anti-immigrant rhetoric, his interest in building a border wall with Mexico, his proposals to eliminate the humanitarian parole program or carry out the largest deportation in history, or his claims that crime is rising due to Latinos, seem to upset Cuban-American voters. Bustamente believes this is due to racial differences. “We know that Cuban emigration over the years has been predominantly white, although this has changed somewhat recently. The relationship between the Cuban community and other Latino communities in the United States has always been complicated,” he says.

The civil struggles of the Chicano or Puerto Rican communities in the 1960s, which often invoked leftist symbols such as the image of Che Guevara, were frequently rejected by the South Florida community. What’s more, the unique immigration status of Cubans — who are protected by the Cuban Adjustment Act, which facilitates permanent residency and eventual citizenship — has legally set them apart from other Latino communities in the country. “That difference has also created divisions,” says Bustamante.

Duany adds that most Cubans do not identify with Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric because, “at least in the first generations, they feel more like exiles than immigrants. This perspective makes Trump’s words are not alluding to Cubans. But he is in fact. I had thought that the trend would lean towards greater Latinization, but that does not appear to be the case.”

Poll numbers reflect this sentiment: approximately 54% of Cuban-Americans are registered as Republicans. Analysts suggest that one reason for this is that Democrats have largely overlooked Florida, a historically crucial state — ranking third in population behind California and Texas — that has 29 electoral votes. But Florida is no longer considered a swing state.

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