North Carolina: Voting amid conspiracy theories and the hurricane aftermath

The tall, wiry man overseeing operations at a makeshift aid center in Rutherford County — a rural area nestled in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains in western North Carolina — introduces himself as Lewis Arthur, a journalist-turned-volunteer. He moves through the crowd, greeting people, asking questions, and distributing blankets and boxes of diapers to those affected by Hurricane Helene, the most devastating natural disaster to strike the U.S. in nearly two decades. Yet his rhetoric, laced with anti-government tirades and conspiracy theories, suggests his motives are far from purely altruistic.

“It’s a shame. If the government contributed all the money it extorts from people through taxes, and provide the services and equipment it can provide, instead of sending money to all these wars, we could have everything resolved much faster,” he says, empathetically.

Without fully explaining, he touches on the relief efforts he leads: “Yes, we have a militia helping us. We have armed people, but it’s not to attack the government... It’s to protect the supplies we’re giving out to the people. Look, we’ve got generators worth thousands of dollars.”

The “we” Arthur refers to is Veterans on Patrol, a group the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) — a nonprofit organization that monitors hate groups — describes as “a militia [...] founded on common antigovernment and anti-immigrant ideas.”

Arthur — whose full name is Michael Lewis Arthur Meyer — is the group’s founder. According to the SPLC, he is a “Christian nationalist who rallies hard-right extremists and conspiracy theorists around the issue of immigration and encourages vigilantism” against migrants. His criminal record in Tucson, Arizona, includes charges of trespassing and assault, and he has been arrested for theft and vandalizing water tanks meant for migrants in the desert, among other offenses. In 2018, he infamously made false claims about a homeless camp operating as a pedophilia ring.

Arthur speaks without pause, amplifying one of the many rumors circulating about official aid operations after the disaster: that the hurricane was deliberately created by the U.S. government to depopulate the area and in order to seize land to mine lithium in the Appalachians. Despite this theory being repeatedly debunked, Arthur frames it as a “controversy.”

“What we’re going to do is build houses for the poor people here who have lost everything. Houses that will be better than the ones they had, so they can stay,” he explains. “That way, the government won’t be able to claim this is an ecological disaster and prevent people from living here again. Well, they will be able to live here, because we’re going to provide them with everything. They won’t need to accept any offers. They won’t have to sell. They won’t have to watch a mine operating in these mountains, these pristine landscapes, if that’s what the government wants to do.”

“Donald Trump Territory”

These kinds of conspiracy theories have been circulating since Hurricane Helene struck nearly three weeks ago. The falsehoods find fertile ground among a traumatized population, exacerbated by an extremely polarized political climate and a longstanding mentality of distrust toward federal power, particularly in rural areas. This skepticism intensifies when the government in question is Democratic. In counties like Rutherford, where highway signs boldly declare the area as “Donald Trump territory,” Ronald Reagan’s famous quip — “the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help’” — isn’t just a joke. It’s practically a creed.

These malicious conspiracy theories are having real consequences, already hampering the work of official aid services. In some areas, suspicious residents are rejecting the assistance they are entitled to, some more politely than others.

Last week, a man was charged with “spreading terror” just a few miles from Arthur’s distribution center after he made armed threats against FEMA officials, the federal agency responsible for disaster relief. Arthur referenced this incident when denying that the militia supporting Veterans on Patrol intended to harm government workers.

Several Republican politicians have spread some of the most extreme rumors, such as the claim that the hurricane was engineered by the government or — as Trump himself suggested — that relief funds are being funneled to illegal immigrants. In response, officials ranging from local leaders to President Joe Biden have worked to counter these false narratives. FEMA has even set up a dedicated page to debunk the rumors.

Last week, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper issued a stern warning about the “persistent and dangerous flow of misinformation” undermining relief efforts, explaining it was demoralizing rescuers and harming those in need. “If you’re participating in spreading this stuff, stop it,” urged the Democrat. “Whatever your aim is, the people you are really hurting are those in western North Carolina who need help.”

With two weeks left until the election, and early voting already underway, the spread of misinformation could have an impact at the polls in this deeply divided state. North Carolina, one of seven key swing states — along with Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — will play a decisive role in determining the next U.S. president on November 5. With the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump almost deadlocked, even a handful of votes could tip the balance. Poll aggregators show Trump with just a slight lead in North Carolina, only a few tenths of a point ahead of his Democratic rival. In this state, every vote counts.

The state’s decisive 16 electoral votes

North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes — the second-largest after Pennsylvania’s 19 — are pivotal in the Electoral College, which has a total of 538 votes. The race for the White House will be won by the candidate who secures 270 votes. While Kamala Harris views Pennsylvania as a near-essential win on her path to the White House, “Trump needs to win North Carolina,” says Justin Gest, a professor at George Mason University in Virginia. “If either of them were to lose in these states that they need to win, not only would their prospects of winning the electoral college decrease, which they would. Above all, it could be the prelude to other defeats,” he explains. “If Trump loses North Carolina, that same dynamic could affect his results in Georgia.”

With such a tight race, even a small number of voters switching allegiances or abstaining could be decisive. “North Carolina isn’t so much a purple state [as swing states are often called, for their mix of Republican red and Democratic blue], but rather two distinct states: one deep red, vermilion, and the other dark navy blue, with very little purple in between — almost no undecided voters,” says Lightning Czabovsky, a professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. In this scenario, the outcome depends on “which party can best mobilize its own base.”

Major hurricane damage in Republican areas

The rumors complicate an already challenging electoral process, which has faced severe logistical hurdles in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. After making landfall in Florida on September 29 as a Category 4 storm, the hurricane unleashed unprecedented fury in a predominantly rural, heavily Republican area of North Carolina, affecting 28 counties — covering 25% of the state’s land and 16% of its population.

The flooding and windstorms destroyed homes, swept away roads, and wiped entire towns off the map. North Carolina’s official death toll stands at 95, with almost as many people still missing. Rescue workers privately acknowledge that many of the missing may never be found. Three weeks after the disaster, tens of thousands remain without water or electricity, and nearly 200,000 residents have applied for federal aid.

“I’m worried about the impact this will have on the vote, that people won’t be able to get out and cast their ballots,” says Heidi, a gift shop owner in Asheville, the largest city in this picturesque, mountainous region known for its vibrant fall colors. Asheville, a progressive enclave in the middle of a deeply Republican area, is preparing to ensure voting access for its residents says Heidi, but she is concerned for those in the hardest-hit rural areas: “In the city, there will be a big push to make sure everyone can vote, but in the remote areas, it could be much more difficult.”

In Asheville, Trump is an unwelcome figure. Yard signs across the city display support for the Democratic ticket, with the message: “Harris-Walz, naturally.”

The wounds left by the apocalyptic storm still run deep in Asheville, a city that, before the hurricane, was a bustling tourist destination known for its vibrant arts and bohemian community. Now, the city’s famous cultural district along the French Broad River has been devastated by the flooding and fierce winds. The raging waters destroyed years of work by dozens of artists, leaving behind only piles of rubble, broken wood, and shattered glass where modern galleries and charming restaurants once stood. A landscaped promenade is now a muddy wasteland of fallen trees. In some places, the pavement has caved in; in others, downed trunks are stacked high. On one street, someone can be seen trying to salvage a final memento with a stick.

“It will take years to rebuild all this. There are people who have lost absolutely everything,” says Heidi, the gift shop owner. Her shop is one of the few businesses that have reopened, just a day earlier when water service was restored. Inside, her beauty products and home decor share space with promotional items supporting Kamala Harris. Outside, she’s rehung the colorful lanterns and pendants that once graced her storefront before the hurricane. “We want to send a message of hope, that we will come back stronger and that this will not be able to defeat us,” she explains.

Outside, the streets are eerily quiet, save for groups of homeless people and the occasional team of rescuers working to clear fallen trees or repair power lines. The few businesses that remain open are mostly focused on providing the essentials to hurricane victims. Hot meals, in particular, have become a luxury, even for the state’s wealthier residents.

Despite the devastation, early voting began last week with only minor disruptions. Of the 400 polling stations across North Carolina, just four in Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, were unable to open, according to Karen Brinson Bell, director of the North Carolina Elections Committee. She noted, however, that exercising the right to vote “may look a little different” in polling places lacking electricity or running water. It remains uncertain how many polling stations will be operational on November 5, election day.

Nationwide, turnout on the first day of early voting surged, with 353,000 ballots cast and lines stretching over an hour at some locations — figures that are several thousand times higher than the early voting numbers from four years ago, when the Covid-19 pandemic boosted the popularity of remote and mail-in voting.

n Charlotte, the state’s largest city, African-American Reverend Marcel Bush voted with his family, casting his ballot for Kamala Harris. “Democracy is at stake, and we need to vote for candidates who respect the Constitution,” he explained after voting. Meanwhile, in Wellons, a working-class neighborhood in Durham, Sarah, an unemployed African-American woman, said she had voted for Trump. “I prefer him. There’s no other reason than that,” she said.

More interest in voting

The high initial turnout indicates significant interest among North Carolina’s 10.8 million residents, as the state transitions from its historical tobacco economy to a hub for technology and health companies, particularly in the so-called Triangle formed by Durham, Chapel Hill, Greensboro, and Raleigh, the state capital. This region represents the largest concentration of Democratic voters in North Carolina.

While the African-American population — a traditionally Democratic-leaning group — is shrinking, the Latino population is on the rise. Additionally, white retirees are flocking to the state for its coastal air and mild temperatures, alongside executives and workers in the burgeoning innovation sector. “This is a state that has experienced substantial growth, but that growth is split between Democrats and Republicans,” notes Professor Czabovsky.

One factor that could ultimately tip the balance in North Carolina’s elections is the contest for the governor’s seat. Current attorney general and Democrat Josh Stein is running against Republican Mark Robinson, the lieutenant governor, who has been struggling in the polls due to various scandals. In September, CNN aired a series of old messages from Robinson on a pornography website where he described himself as “a black Nazi” and expressed support for reinstating slavery.

“The fact that North Carolina [which has voted Republican in the last three elections] is now in play is a promising sign for the Harris-Walz campaign. The state’s increasingly diverse and more educated demographics have sparked a political evolution similar to Georgia’s shift to a swing state. However, what has particularly energized Democratic hopes in this campaign is Robinson’s candidacy, which may dampen Republican enthusiasm while mobilizing Democratic voters,” explains Professor Gest.

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