Federal criminal cases against Trump resurface in the final stretch of the campaign

Donald Trump is not only campaigning to return to the White House and regain power on November 5. It is possible that what is really at stake for him is to avoid going to jail for the dozens of charges in two different cases leveled against him by a special counsel appointed by the Department of Justice. Both cases appeared to be in limbo: the one claiming Trump mishandled classified documents that he took with him to his residence in Mar-a-Lago had been shelved by the judge in a surprise move; another case regarding electoral interference in Washington was on hold due to the ruling on presidential immunity by the Supreme Court. Both have resurfaced this week, just over two months before the presidential election.

A few decades ago, criminal charges like the ones faced by Trump would have ended the career of any politician. No president or former president had been indicted by a grand jury until Trump, who has been indicted in four different cases on dozens of charges. A jury found him guilty of 34 counts for falsifying invoices, checks and accounting records to hide payments to the porn actress Stormy Daniels so that she would remain silent and not harm his electoral chances in the 2016 presidential election. In addition, other juries have found him guilty of fraud, sexual abuse and defamation in civil cases. Despite this history, Trump masterfully manages his communication skills, his lies and his propaganda networks to present himself as a martyr and a victim of political persecution.

That is the script that has been followed this week. Two cases that seemed to be on hold are back in the spotlight, although neither of them will go to trial before November 5. Federal Judge Aileen Cannon, who was appointed by Trump, decided in July to dismiss the Mar-a-Lago papers case on the grounds that the appointment of Special Counsel Jack Smith was illegal because he had not been appointed by the president (the Attorney General did so instead) nor had he been ratified by the Senate. Trump welcomed the judge’s decision, which broke with all precedent in this regard. However, Smith filed an appeal on Monday with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, which has already dealt several legal blows to the judge for her decisions favoring Trump. The case, therefore, is still alive and kicking.

The other case involves Trump’s alleged attempts to alter the results of the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden. The trial was scheduled for early March, but the former president’s lawyers appealed again and again, claiming presidential immunity. The Supreme Court, with a conservative majority, granted him broad immunity for acts carried out while president, rendering part of the initial indictment void, but leaving the lower courts to continue with the case and draw the line on which allegations could go to court.

The prosecution has obtained a new indictment voted by another grand jury that considers that the new allegations fit into the new doctrine. The revised indictment leaves out acts that appear to be protected by the Supreme Court’s ruling, mainly Trump’s interactions with the Department of Justice. Trump and his lawyers believe that the new accusation continues to violate his immunity. Judge Tanya Chutkan, appointed by Barack Obama, will have to decide.

Awaiting sentencing

The same Supreme Court ruling on immunity led Judge Juan Merchan to postpone sentencing in the hush money case, which was initially scheduled for July 10. The judge postponed it until September 18 to give the parties time to argue whether the high court’s ruling affected their case or not and to make a decision, which is scheduled for September 16. Trump’s lawyers asked the judge last week to postpone sentencing until after the election. In theory, Merchan’s decision could put Trump behind bars for years, although the most common outcome would be for him to receive probation or conditional discharge.

Trump’s preference for a delayed sentencing is a sign that he believes it could hurt him electorally, although the effect on voters is not entirely clear. The former president fell somewhat in the polls after being found guilty in late May, but has frequently used his legal troubles to mobilize his supporters and attract donations for his campaign. Following the special counsel’s decisions, Trump has insisted without foundation that it is a “witch hunt.” He has said that Washington’s accusation is “ridiculous” and should be dismissed immediately and that it is all an attempt to interfere in the election.

Curiously, the Democratic campaign, which is usually very aggressive against Trump, has remained silent on Smith’s latest decisions. During last week’s convention in Chicago, several party leaders drew a contrast between prosecutor Kamala Harris and convicted felon Donald Trump. It is a comparison that many in the party expect to emerge in the debate on September 10. However, the Democrats have not touched the wound this week, perhaps afraid of giving credibility to the Trumpist theory of political persecution.

This week’s rallies will serve as a gauge of how the candidates approach the issue. Harris is campaigning by bus through Georgia, one of the key swing states, with her vice presidential candidate, Tim Walz, and will hold a rally in Savannah on Thursday. Trump has a rally scheduled in La Crosse, Wisconsin, on Thursday and another one in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, on Friday, in two other key swing states.

Harris has also finally agreed to her first interview since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race more than a month ago. It will be broadcast on CNN on Thursday at 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Her vice-presidential candidate Walz will be with her, a fact that has already been mocked by the Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance, who said it was like a teenager bringing his mother or father to their first job interview.

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