Democratic primaries reveal Israel’s waning political influence in the United States

AIPAC has become a toxic word for many Americans. The acronym stands for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, an organization founded in the 1950s to promote strong relations between the United States and Israel. But in recent years the organization has become a polarizing force in the United States, pouring millions into campaigns for pro-Israel candidates and seen by many citizens as synonymous with the shadowy influence of money in politics.

The latest politician to find that out is Representative Haley Stevens, whose bid last week to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in Michigan ended in defeat. Stevens enjoyed the backing of her party’s establishment and the generous support of the pro-Israel lobby, which poured $30 million into her campaign, a record-breaking amount. But she ran up against the appeal of Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive candidate who built his success on the idea of ending the sway of special interests in electoral campaigns. “Get money out of politics, put money in your pocket, and pass Medicare for All” has become his rallying cry. And the first part of that message is aimed above all at one target: Israel’s political influence in Washington.

In an interview with The New Yorker shortly before the primary, El-Sayed acknowledged that the millions of dollars AIPAC spent to defeat him had allowed him to cast himself as a kind of David versus Goliath. “You gave me a gigantic platform. Thank you so much, AIPAC donors. I’m so grateful for you,” he said. If he wins the November 3 election, El-Sayed will become the first Muslim senator in U.S. history.

Three pillars under pressure

Aaron David Miller has spent half a century observing U.S.-Israel relations. He spent the first 30 years in government — advising six secretaries of state in various rounds of Arab-Israeli negotiations until 2003 — and the last 20 as an analyst. He says he has never seen a situation as fraught as the current one. “Over these decades, the relationship between the two countries has rested on three pillars: shared values, common interests and a strong bipartisan base of support in the United States. All of those elements are now under extreme pressure,” said the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace fellow by phone.

Given the complexity of the issue, Miller resists making a definitive conclusion about where the relationship between the — until now — close allies is headed. But he points to two factors that will set the tone: who will win the October 27 elections in Israel — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he says, is opposed by most Americans — and ending the long-standing taboo surrounding the $3.8 billion in U.S. aid to Israel.

El-Sayed’s success is not an isolated case. Democrats most critical of Netanyahu have turned circumstance into an advantage, repeatedly highlighting AIPAC and the money spent to defeat them as proof of their independence, while drawing attention to their rivals’ ties to the pro-Israel lobby. It is a strategy that worked for congressional candidates backed by New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. But it is no guaranteed formula for success: other Democrats running on similar platforms have failed. El-Sayed’s victory — by a razor-thin margin of just 15,000 votes — also highlights the deep divisions among Democrats over issues such as Israel.

Meanwhile, Republicans have already begun campaigning on the claim that El-Sayed is hostile to Israel and to Jews. They hope that message will help their candidate, Mike Rogers, win Michigan’s Senate race in November. The battleground state, which Trump carried in the 2024 presidential election, could prove crucial in determining control of the Senate. But Republicans are not monolithic in their support for Israel either. Many still recall Vice President J.D. Vance’s public rebuke of Netanyahu in June over what he saw as the Israeli leader’s obstruction of the peace process with Iran. “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left ‌in the entire world,” he said.

“El-Sayed’s victory suggests a Congress that is increasingly likely to treat the relationship with Israel as less exceptional, with aid leveling out to what other countries receive — an idea shared by both Democrats and Republicans,” says political strategist and Haaretz analyst Dahlia Scheindlin from Israel. “If a significant number of Democrats deeply critical of Israel enter Congress after the midterm elections, the United States will give much more limited support. There will be a reduction in arms exports and financial aid,” adds Scheindlin, who holds dual nationality.

From nonpartisan group to campaign financier

AIPAC’s spending on U.S. campaigns has grown as the two countries’ interests diverged. An organization that began as a nonpartisan platform lobbying Congress and sending lawmakers to Israel changed its role as it saw what it regarded as growing anti-Israel sentiment in some Democratic quarters. Key turning points included the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran negotiated by the Obama administration and the rise of the Squad, a group of progressive lawmakers that included Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and was viewed by AIPAC as overly sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.

In 2022, AIPAC created a vehicle to finance campaigns of candidates favorable to its interests, and its spending has risen steadily ever since. Four years ago, it spent $29 million; by 2026, that figure had climbed to $67 million, making it one of the biggest political spenders in the United States. According to an analysis by The New York Times, AIPAC funded 109 television and digital advertisements over the past four years, but only six explicitly mentioned Israel, a practice that has fueled criticism that it operates opaquely and without clearly disclosing its objectives.

Following El-Sayed’s victory, AIPAC issued a statement warning that it would do everything in its power to prevent the Democratic candidate, the son of Egyptian immigrants, from winning the general election. El-Sayed has openly described Netanyahu’s conduct in Gaza as genocide and has called for an end to unconditional U.S. support for Israel.

“I appreciate AIPAC proving it doesn’t belong in the Dem Party and especially our primaries,” Ocasio-Cortez replied on social media in response to the statement. “AIPAC is an org committed to undermining democracy at home and abroad. See you in November.”

Despite protests from Israel’s strongest supporters, it is clear that something is shifting in U.S. politics. Former vice president Kamala Harris, who has become increasingly open about her intention to seek the White House again in 2028, has endorsed El-Sayed ahead of the November election. The move is notable given that many analysts cited the Biden-Harris administration’s support for Israel as one of the factors that hurt her 2024 campaign and helped pave the way for Trump’s victory.

It is further evidence that traditional support for Israel is fracturing. And the upcoming midterm elections will be a crucial test of just how indissoluble the decades-old relationship between the two countries really is.

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