California votes to replace Gavin Newsom and test its role as leader of resistance to Trump

California voters on Tuesday are set to choose the candidates who will compete in November for the governor’s office and 52 seats in Congress, in primary elections that are seen as a barometer of how a stronghold of progressive policies is responding to President Donald Trump’s second term. Attention is focused on the gubernatorial race to fill the vacancy left by Democrat Gavin Newsom, one of Trump’s most vocal critics and who continues to send signals of a possible presidential bid.

There are 61 contenders on the ballots to succeed Newsom and, according to polls, none holds a comfortable lead. California remains one of the most favorable territories for the Democratic Party, so it appears unlikely that a Republican nominee—even one with the president’s backing—will turn the state red. Since actor Arnold Schwarzenegger finished his second term in 2011, Republicans have not won that office again.

The choice of the next governor will not be decided Tuesday. Under the jungle primary system, or open primaries, all candidates compete on a single ballot and the top two vote-getters advance to the November 3 general election, regardless of party affiliation. Adopted in 2012, this model has allowed Democrats and Republicans to compete against each other in the same primary. Since its implementation, the two slots for the general election have been occupied by candidates from both parties.

The race among Democrats

The fractured Democratic vote is split among 23 candidates for governor, most with almost no support. Although Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign and gave up his congressional seat amid serious allegations of sexual abuse, his name still appears on the ballots. His withdrawal benefited Xavier Becerra, who served as secretary of health during Joe Biden’s presidency and as the state’s attorney general.

The son of Mexican immigrants is seeking to become the first governor of Hispanic descent in the past 100 years. Recent polls place him in the lead, with about 28% of the vote. Behind him are Democrat Tom Steyer, a billionaire who founded one of San Francisco’s largest investment firms, and Republican Steve Hilton, a former political commentator backed by Trump and by his party’s financial machinery.

What happens in California could influence Democratic strategy heading into the 2028 presidential elections. During Trump’s first term (2017–2021), the state positioned itself as the main force of resistance on issues such as immigration, climate change, reproductive rights and social justice. The question now is whether it will maintain that confrontational stance or if some Democrats will try to moderate their message. This time, the debate is compounded by relentless inflation and high fuel and housing costs that continue to hit Californians’ wallets — despite living in what is considered the world’s fourth-largest economy.

Early mailed-in ballots indicate an undecided and unenthusiastic electorate. Only 11% of the state’s roughly 23 million voters had returned their ballots by Wednesday night. That includes 15% of Republicans, 11% of Democrats and 8% of voters registered with no party or with another party, according to tracking by strategist Paul Mitchell, cited by the Associated Press.

The shadow of Trump

Days before polling places opened, Newsom signed a law he said is intended to shield elections from possible interference by the Trump administration. The measure, which took effect Thursday, bars anyone, including federal agents, from accessing voter rolls or election technology without a court order. “We have to be prepared for anything,” he said at a news conference. The governor said the step is in response to a “legitimate anxiety” generated by a president who, in his view, “does not believe in free and fair elections.”

The White House responded immediately. Its spokeswoman, Abigail Jackson, told the AP that Trump was committed to the integrity of electoral processes. “Instead of launching false attacks against the president, ‘Newscum’ should look in the mirror,” she said.

Democratic leaders say the president has tried to meddle in election matters after the FBI seized ballots earlier this year from the state’s most populous, Democratic-leaning county in Georgia. The Department of Justice has also sought access to election materials in counties in Arizona and Michigan.

The controversy has reached California as well. One of the Republican candidates for governor, Sheriff Chad Bianco, drew public attention after ordering the seizure of ballots in Riverside County as part of an investigation into alleged irregularities.

These actions have been interpreted as a way to capitalize on narratives promoted by Republican sectors that claim, without presenting evidence, that their political rivals benefit from irregularities to add votes.

The hand of outside interests

These primaries also show how corporations, unions, tech companies, outside groups and unprecedented spending by one candidate continue trying to shape the state’s political course. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer set a record by spending more than $195 million of his own money on advertising, including payments to dozens of influencers, according to data compiled by AdImpact. That figure surpassed the $178.5 million spent in 2010 by Republican Meg Whitman, who still failed to unseat Democrat Jerry Brown.

Also leaving a historic mark in these primaries are corporations and special interest groups that, unlike candidates, can receive unlimited donations. By the end of May they reported spending $79 million, more than double what was spent in the November 2018 general election when Newsom won his first term, according to local outlet Cal Matters.

A political spending committee called “California Is Not For Sale” and funded by the state association of real estate agents, the California Chamber of Commerce, energy company Pacific Gas & Electric and the state electricians’ union had invested $32 million in ads against Steyer.

Meanwhile, Chevron, McDonald’s, dialysis giant DaVita, California Resources Corporation (one of the state’s largest oil drilling firms), Meta, Airbnb and several unions have contributed more than $17 million to buy ads supporting Becerra.

Hilton, for his part, amassed the largest number of campaign donors in the race (more than 20,000), and nearly a quarter of them live outside California, Cal Matters reported. The former Fox News host saw a spike in donations after Trump endorsed him on April 6.

Hunting for five seats

Ahead of the midterm elections, Trump urged Republicans in Texas to redraw U.S. House districts to help the party retain control. Subsequently, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee and Louisiana also approved new electoral maps. Together, these redistrictings could translate into a gain of up to 14 seats in the November elections.

In response, Newsom and California Democrats pushed their own redistricting through Proposition 50, aimed at increasing their representation in Congress. Tuesday’s primaries are the first under that new map, which will remain in effect through the 2030 elections. All 52 congressional districts in the state are at stake, 43 held by Democrats and eight by Republicans.

Five districts (1, 3, 22, 41 and 48) were redrawn to include more Democratic voters in areas that had strong Republican majorities. One of the five legislators under pressure, Kevin Kiley of the 3rd District, was a Republican when he won the previous election but is now running as an independent.

The reorganization has also intensified tensions within the Democratic Party in the race for the 22nd District in the Central Valley, a largely Latino region. Positions diverge between those who favor backing a Hispanic candidate, professor Randy Villegas, to capitalize on the broad Latino vote in the area, and those who prefer supporting a lawmaker with a record in public service, the physician and state assemblymember Jasmeet Bains. Divisions deepened after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) broke its decision not to intervene in California contests and included Bains in its Red to Blue initiative, focused on flipping Republican-held seats.

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