Tanker transits through Strait of Hormuz approach prewar figures

The Strait of Hormuz is far from what it was before Donald Trump blew everything out of the water: a maritime route that, although located in a hotspot region, allowed the free and safe passage of huge volumes of oil and gas from the Middle East. However, something has been moving in recent days, with many more tanker transits than over the previous several months. Some analysts even place crude shipments through the area around the levels seen before last spring and near those recorded during the short-lived ceasefire in June.

“The export arteries for Middle East oil are flowing again,” JP Morgan analysts said on Tuesday. Their estimates point to a rebound to about 17.5 million barrels a day, 98% of what transited the area before the U.S. and Israel launched their war on Iran.

Analysis firm Vortexa, meanwhile, puts crude shipments through the strait at a six-month high: 14 million barrels a day. Another investment bank, Goldman Sachs, estimates total crude exports from Persian Gulf countries — via Hormuz or alternative pipelines — at more than 23 million barrels a day in the last week, similar to the 2025 average.

Putting the numbers aside, the evidence points in one direction: fossil fuel flows through Hormuz have risen substantially, helping clear a maritime route that has kept the world on edge since late February and has triggered a major energy crisis. It is the second such crisis in less than five years, after the one caused in 2022 by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Yes, Middle Eastern oil exports are much higher, [but] at a great cost,” wrote Rory Johnston, an oil sector analyst and author of the newsletter CommodityContext, on Wednesday. “But no, we are not ‘back to normal,’ for God’s sake.”

Saudi crude

The clearest proof that something has changed in Hormuz is that, far from causing a sudden collapse in Saudi exports, the two-week closure of the only pipeline that allowed Riyadh to bypass the strait resulted in a relatively manageable drop in shipments. Largely because Riyadh managed to push more crude through the traditional route: from the port of Ras Tanura, in the Persian Gulf, toward Hormuz before reaching the Indian Ocean. There were also ship-to-ship transfers.

Goldman Sachs’s estimates, which include activity by the so-called phantom fleet (with transponders switched off), suggest Saudi exports more than doubled in September, to 11.6 million barrels a day — higher than last year’s average.

If confirmed in the coming days and weeks, the gradual revival of oil transit through Hormuz carries an important geostrategic implication: Iran risks losing its greatest leverage over the United States and, more broadly, the West, both stunned by the second hydrocarbon price crisis in less than five years.

The greatest risk now is that Tehran feels cornered and responds by intensifying military escalation, directing attacks not only at vessels transiting Hormuz, as so far, but also at the origins of their cargo: ports, pipelines and even oilfields in Gulf states. As in the worst days of the war. If that happens, such an escalation would reverberate strongly on prices and could even affect the global supply of crude and gas.

A fall in prices will have to wait

On the purely economic side, what stands out is that oil prices have barely reacted to the growing traffic in the Gulf. Partly because crude is not only a physical commodity — measurable in millions of barrels sold and transported every day worldwide — but also a financial asset whose trading moves over half a trillion dollars daily, roughly equivalent to the GDP of Colombia, Norway, or the United Arab Emirates. And investors, like Rory Johnston, remain unconvinced that global supply is returning to normal, even if flows through Hormuz are recovering.

Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel on Wednesday, although the futures contract for December delivery already trades slightly below that level. Investors continue to apply a risk premium to crude that keeps prices elevated. “We remain concerned about a potential new escalation that could damage more energy infrastructure,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in their client note.

For now, these green shoots in Hormuz are not making crude — nor the main end product refined from it, fuel — cheaper; the real bottleneck is in refined products caused by the war. In fact, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports from Gulf countries remain about half the 2025 average, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.

The crude/refined fuels split has an explanation: several refineries were damaged and others have been underfed in recent months. While oil wells have largely escaped attacks, some refineries hit in the early days of the war have not fully resumed operations. In addition, transporting refined products is more costly and complex than moving crude. “They are more flammable than crude, so the physical risks when crossing the Strait of Hormuz are greater for product tankers than for crude tankers,” Goldman Sachs explains.

Pending consolidation, this nascent rebound in energy flows still looks largely cyclical rather than structural. But it appears to support the view that the U.S. Navy is exercising considerably more effective control of the area, allowing oil and LNG tankers to take the Oman route to leave the zone outside the reach of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

All the same, the risks remain very high. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported three incidents in recent hours involving ships carrying fossil fuels — two oil tankers and one LNG carrier — that were struck by projectiles. If confirmed, it would be the most attacks recorded in a single day since July. Two opposing realities, face to face: Hormuz may be more porous, but not safer. “The increase in crossings should not be confused with greater safety; rather, it reflects the sector’s growing capacity to operate under sustained risk,” JP Morgan analysts concluded.

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