Tension in the Caribbean reverberates in Havana: ‘Venezuela is crucial for the Cuban political elites’

When Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla denounced the U.S. State Department and its secretary, the “corrupt and compulsive liar” Marco Rubio, on X a few days ago, the Cuban-American official didn’t waste much time crafting a response. Rubio seized upon the message in which the official condemned “the false pretexts” used to justify a military invasion of Venezuela, and shared it with what he deemed the most fitting gift for his reply: a clown emoji, thus labeling Cuban diplomacy a farce. To the stones thrown from Washington and Havana was added one from Congressman Carlos A. Giménez, with a much more direct warning, at a time of escalating military activity in the Caribbean. “Bruno, be careful, the ship could set sail and come for all of you narco-terrorist henchmen of the murderous dictatorship in Cuba,” he warned.

He was alluding to the arsenal the United States has deployed off the coast of Venezuela as part of “Operation Southern Spear,” which has resulted in the deaths of more than 80 people in the name of the fight against drug trafficking. With the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, positioned in the Atlantic, and Puerto Rico militarized with at least 5,000 of the nearly 15,000 troops mobilized for the operation, the specter of the Cold War — this time against drugs — seems to have resurfaced in the region, and Havana is beginning to worry.

Cuba has been mentioned very little in this regard, even as the Caribbean Sea reverberates with activity. Decades ago, Fidel Castro ensured the island was placed on the agenda of the region’s political conflicts, perpetuating a Cold War. “Cuba ceased to be a protagonist when Fidel died; he had managed to embody the image of the great manipulator of global politics,” José Hernández, former Venezuelan representative to the OAS’s hemispheric security commission, told EL PAÍS.

Given the current military action from Washington, which has been justified with the argument of the fight against drugs and a subsequent overthrow of the Venezuelan regime, many — especially in the hardline wing of the Cuban exile community — are questioning why the Donald Trump administration is not undertaking similar threats against Castroism.

María Werlau, author of the book Cuba’s Intervention in Venezuela, has investigated the presence of the Cuban military apparatus within the armed forces of the South American country, and she believes that the United States’ interest in Venezuela is two-fold: the fight against drug trafficking, something Trump has prioritized in his rhetoric, and certain characteristics that the Caribbean island lacks. “In Venezuela, there hasn’t been a totalitarian system implemented to the same extent as in Cuba. There are signs of a free market, it’s a country with resources for reconstruction, and more importantly, it has a government elected by the people. Cuba has none of that. It’s much easier to conceive of a strategic intervention in Venezuela, although I doubt there will be a landing of American troops,” she maintains.

Even so, an escalation in the Caribbean Sea poses a direct threat to the Castro regime, although Washington’s focus is not on the Palace of the Revolution in Havana, but rather on Miraflores Palace in Caracas. With the continent’s governments on alert, some believe that Havana’s political leadership may be fearful. According to Carlos M. Rodríguez Arechavaleta, a political scientist, there is evident unease within the island’s Foreign Ministry. “There is growing concern among Cuba’s political elite, as evidenced by their continuous statements and events in support of Maduro’s regime,” he notes. “These are framed within a historical narrative against imperialist interventionism, describing the situation as an ‘unacceptable threat’ to sovereignty and security, with ‘unpredictable consequences’ for Latin America. Both the narrative and the nonverbal communication of Cuban officials reflect concern about a probable fall of the Venezuelan regime.”

From every possible platform, the Cuban government has made clear its commitment to the Nicolás Maduro regime, whose legitimacy it has emphasized, the same as it did in last year’s disputed elections. At the United Nations, Foreign Minister Rodríguez extended “full support to the Bolivarian Government.” Through official channels, he has refuted the “untenable lie” that this is a fight against fentanyl, stating that the military escalation could become “a first-order international crime,” and asserting that the action represents a violation of international law. This Tuesday, he even posed several questions in a video shared on X, some once again targeting Rubio: “If war breaks out, where will the Secretary of State be? Does anyone really believe he will accompany young soldiers to risk their lives in a battle that is not theirs? Ask him if he ever did his military service,” he said.

The Cuban government has also mobilized its citizens with demonstrations of support for Venezuela. According to official reports, more than 50,000 people gathered in front of the statue of Simón Bolívar on Avenida de los Presidentes in Havana’s Vedado district, and more than four million signatures in support of the Chavista cause were collected in schools and workplaces. At a public event, President Miguel Díaz-Canel was quick to declare that “whoever messes with Venezuela, messes with Cuba.” Days later, Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío clarified his statement in an interview on the Zeteo platform: “We are not going to war with the United States,” he asserted. However, he stated that Cuba would provide “its full political support” to Venezuela.

An intense relationship since the 2000s

Cuba insists on the rhetoric of solidarity, appealing to the public’s desire that nothing befall its historic economic and political ally in the region. Since the 2000s, with Hugo Chávez in power, the oil-rich Venezuela has replaced the USSR as Cuba’s benefactor. The Chavista leader went so far as to send more than 90,000 barrels of oil daily; in 2011, the island connected to the ALBA-1 submarine cable, a joint venture between Telecom Venezuela and the Cuban company Transbit. Havana has received millions of dollars for more than two decades in exchange for medical missions to Venezuela, something the current Trump administration has labeled as “human trafficking.”

Arechavaleta asserts that “the survival of the Venezuelan autocratic regime is of paramount importance for the survival of the Cuban political elites.” If Venezuela falls, he says, Cuba would lose its most important point of reference in the Southern Cone, “at a time when Latin American democracies, with their electoral volatility, are transitioning from progressive governments — which could be potential allies — to right-wing governments. More than an economic loss, Cuba would lose an ideological and symbolic ally,” he explains.

Although specialists believe that economic aid has decreased due to the Venezuelan crisis itself — sometimes resulting in only 8,000 barrels of oil arriving on the island daily, and a reduced presence of Cuban personnel in medical and educational projects in Venezuela — a collapse in Caracas would be devastating for Cuba. The full extent of the relationship between the two nations is impossible to measure due to the secrecy surrounding it, but it is known that Cuban intelligence — which trained Maduro on the island and has been infiltrated in the Venezuelan Armed Forces for years — may be exerting pressure on the Venezuelan government in Miraflores amid threats from the United States.

“The Cuban regime’s influence in Venezuela remains very high, particularly in the security and military intelligence sectors,” Werlau asserts. A few days ago, a high-ranking source told the news site Axios that Maduro’s Cuban advisors could even assassinate him “if he yields to U.S. pressure and resigns,” but those interviewed by this newspaper believe this information is purely speculative. “I do believe there will be a lot of pressure from Cuba to prevent him from relinquishing power, even through threats; that’s my opinion after years of knowing the situation,” the author says.

Some believe that a coup in Venezuela could trigger a domino effect, leading to the fall of regimes like those in Cuba and Nicaragua. But Werlau isn’t so sure about this assertion. While the impact on the island would certainly be significant, given the ongoing humanitarian crisis, “these regimes have defied many predictions,” she maintains. “When the Soviet Union collapsed, many people saw Cuba’s demise, and then Chávez emerged. They’ve managed to reinvent themselves several times. I think recovering from this will be difficult because the island is devastated. However, they’ve managed to maintain control and internal security. I don’t know if it will be the end, but it could be very significant.”

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition