Venezuela’s leadership remains silent about US military escalation in the region

The Chavista leadership remains silent following the message from U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who announced on the social media platform X the start of a U.S. military operation to “remove narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere.” Details of what the operation, dubbed “Southern Spear,” will mean for Latin America — and specifically for Venezuela — have not yet been released, but it represents another step in the escalating U.S. presence in the Caribbean Sea, where the world’s largest warship has just arrived.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro did speak on Thursday, but it was before the announcement. In his statement, the Chavista leader denounced the United States for “persecuting” young Venezuelan migrants while “threatening Venezuela with an invasion.” He appealed for reconciliation and argued that Americans and Venezuelans should “unite for the peace of the continent.”

Maduro, who has declared the highest alert level in the Armed Forces, asked the president of the United States, Donald Trump, “no more endless wars, no more unjust wars, no more Libya, no more Afghanistan.” And he repeated several times in rudimentary English: “Yes, peace.”

A day before Hegseth’s announcement, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado declared that “decisive hours” were approaching in the country, and prophesied “a crucial change.” Speaking at a virtual forum of Ibero-American former presidents from the IDEA Group, Machado announced, before advocating for the reconstruction of a “devastated country”: “The days ahead are very difficult. But we are no longer afraid of what others believe is impossible.”

Machado, the so-called “Iron Lady” of the most intransigent anti-Chavista currents and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, assured that the country is “on the threshold of its freedom” and guaranteed that the transition to democracy that Venezuela has planned “will be peaceful.”

While the Venezuelan opposition leader predicted (as she has done on other occasions) crucial moments for her country, the U.S. carrier Gerald Ford lined up alongside dozens of aircraft and military vessels already in the Caribbean region in Trump’s declared war against drug trafficking — a campaign that carries the underlying aim of removing Maduro from power.

Some political observers inside and outside Venezuela, particularly on social media, are issuing periodic warnings about the importance of not underestimating the capacity of Chavismo — a political movement that defines itself as “a force” and that continues to have a clear influence among the military — to generate a general or partial conflict in Venezuela in the event of foreign aggression.

U.S. military might is incomparably greater than that of Venezuela, but Chavismo can retreat and organize guerrilla fronts, or take over entire areas of the country and foment chaos with variants of terrorism inspired by guerrilla warfare.

According to this view, it would be a mistake to assume that a U.S. intervention would produce the “domino effect” that some imagine.

On the contrary, many Venezuelans abroad tend to think, as suggested by Machado’s speech, that no one will come out in force to defend Nicolás Maduro — a leader with little popular appeal, but based on strong military support — if a foreign force intervenes to interrupt his term, especially after the accusations of fraud in last year’s presidential elections.

Among the majority of the opposition, who have enormous faith in Machado’s word, the possibility of uncontrolled violence should Maduro fall is dismissed. There are doubts about his ability to mobilize support, and even about the loyalty of his military leadership should he face a decisive moment that opens the door to democracy.

In general, within the democratic camp, there is a widespread feeling that no U.S. operation in the country would last too long.

Donald Trump’s intentions, in any case, remain unclear. Despite the military escalation, the U.S. president has shown caution regarding intervention in Venezuela: the chances of a military incursion resulting in bloodshed on both sides, and of failing to achieve the unstated objective of overthrowing Maduro, are high. According to U.S. media, Trump’s team has presented him with several options for action that go beyond attacks on alleged drug-running boats in the Pacific. These range from airstrikes to the direct removal of the Chavista leader. According to CNN, Trump continues to weigh the risks and benefits of launching a broader military campaign.

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