Specter of amnesty for Bolsonaro haunts Brasília 

In South America’s most futuristic city, politics insists on demonstrating that “Brazil has a great past ahead of it.” This is one of the most famous jokes by comedian Millôr Fernandes (1923-2012).

The historical curse of pardoning politicians and military personnel is once again haunting Brasília. Former president Jair Bolsonaro is the accused, with the right to a defense before the Supreme Court. He and seven former close associates, both civilians and military officers, are on trial.

The conspiracy to grant amnesty to the group involved in the 2022-2023 anti-democratic adventure is being hatched by right-wing and far-right Brazilian parliamentarians. This is taking place under the leadership of Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas (Republican Party), a likely rival to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) in the 2026 elections. De Freitas governs São Paulo, the state with the greatest economic power in the country.

The Supreme Court in charge of trying the coup plotters is located in the equilateral triangle of the Three Powers Plaza, just a quarter-mile from the National Congress, where deputies and senators are colluding to free Bolsonaro and the generals from possible convictions.

On one side of the plaza, enthusiasm reigns over the possibility of imprisoning — for the first time in the history of the republic — those who attacked the democratic order. On the other side, machinations to overturn any judicial decision by the court are moving at full speed.

The gap in public opinion favors justice: according to Datafolha, the country’s leading polling institute, 55% of Brazilians oppose any idea of pardoning the former president. The rest either don’t know, or declined to answer the survey.

The historical curse that haunts the modern architecture of the federal capital has persisted since the 1889 coup, during the proclamation of the Republic of Brazil. It was repeated in the uprisings of 1904, 1922, 1924 and 1964. And, most recently, the curse flared up again, during retired army captain Jair Bolsonaro’s attempt to stay in power after losing his re-election bid in 2022. In all these uprisings, the military was present and played a leading role, as historian Carlos Fico writes in his book, Brazilian Authoritarian Utopia (2025).

The current interference by the United States government — with President Donald Trump imposing 50% tariffs on Brazil and applying sanctions against Supreme Court justices — is another specter from the past that has returned to haunt the halls of Brasília. It echoes the strong presence of the CIA and the White House during the 1964 coup d’état.

That last coup attempt — which took place with U.S. participation — is a national classic, almost a Samba de uma nota só (a “one-note samba”), recalling the extraordinary success of the great bossa nova maestro, Tom Jobim (1927-1994).

The most bizarre thing is knowing that the conspiracy to grant amnesty to the former president and his accomplices began to take shape — and could be approved in Congress — before any ruling by the Supreme Court. It’s a new blow to democracy, intended to erase the crime of the attempted coup d’état that took place on January 8, 2023. A ruse very much in the style of the eternal curse.

“I hope these people are convicted and that there’s no amnesty [granted]. Many people ask me if there will be an amnesty… if I look back at history, I tend to believe so, because the pattern has been one of impunity. And [this has had] a truly significant impact on the perpetuation of this interventionism [by the military] to this day,” Fico noted, in an interview with Agência Brasil.

Only protests by the majority of Brazilians (the 55% registered in the polls) will free the country from the ghosts of the past that haunt the futuristic labyrinths of the Federal District. For now, it’s as if the country’s democracy is an eternal (dystopian) science fiction movie.

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