Mexican opposition embraces Trump’s pressure to gain strength against Sheinbaum

Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada was testifying in a U.S. federal court, but the tremors were occurring south of the Rio Grande. In his guilty plea, the veteran Mexican drug lord publicly acknowledged what was already widely known: that he bribed police officials, military personnel, and politicians to “operate freely” in the country. The allusion to that last group, elected representatives, has sent a chill through the entire Mexican political class. The statement is brief and general, so general that anyone could use it as a weapon, even at the risk of it coming back to haunt them. The Mexican opposition, diminished to the point of irrelevance at the legislative level and eager for any kind of boost, has concluded that the risk was worth it and used it against the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum, who denied Tuesday that she was worried about what El Mayo might reveal to Donald Trump’s administration.

“Given the lack of tools in the chambers, this is the ideal scenario for the opposition,” notes Mariela Díaz Sandoval, an expert on political parties and violence at the University of Guerrero. “It is capitalizing on the sentiment that has always existed among certain sectors of the population who see the need for outside intervention to address long-standing problems in Mexico, such as corruption and security.” Statements by National Action Party (PAN) Senator Lilly Téllez, riding high after her appearance on the conservative network Fox News, in which she requested U.S. “support” against the cartels in Mexico, support this view. “The truth is that if the United States didn’t take him [Zambada], he would remain untouchable under the protection of [Sheinbaum’s party] Morena,” she said this Tuesday, reinforcing the rhetoric she had already outlined on U.S. television, which earned her the label of “traitor” from the ruling party.

She’s not alone within the PAN. Representative Noemí Luna has also used the words of the former leader of the Sinaloa Cartel to take a swipe at Sheinbaum’s administration. “Of course they’re nervous! And that’s why they’re looking for distractions, but how great that Mayo Zambada is ‘singing’!” she said Tuesday. Attorney General Pam Bondi touted the kingpin’s hearing as “a historic victory” for the U.S., which had been wanting to get its hands on him for years. The Mexican opposition also sees it as a victory, attempting to shake off its lethargy and rally behind Donald Trump’s rhetoric as he pressures Sheinbaum to achieve more decisive results on security in exchange for relieving the Latin American nation of harsher economic measures.

“The opposition hadn’t been able to generate an alternative narrative [to that of the government], and now the United States, or at least its president, is allowing it to generate that narrative to position a leader, as in the case of Lilly Téllez,” argues Javier Rosiles, a political scientist at UNAM. “It’s not that the opposition has been able to generate that space; it has come to it from overseas,” he adds. In the background, says the analyst, the 2027 midterm elections loom, and, a little further ahead, the 2030 presidential elections: then the success of this new strategy will be put to the test.

Until now, Sheinbaum’s measured response and her ability to deal with Trump’s interventionist threats had turned the tense bilateral relationship into a source of political credit for the president, who has handled her counterpart with a gentle but firm hand. This territory, until now exclusive, is becoming an ambivalent terrain in which the opposition is also digging in search of the keys that will allow it to rebuild. “It’s impossible for the government not to emerge weakened from this situation,” says Raúl Benítez Manaut, an expert in North American politics and security at UNAM. “The United States has information, but Sheinbaum doesn’t know what; no one knows what El Mayo is saying. The pressure capacity that the United States can exert is far superior to [that of] the Mexican government,” the researcher emphasizes.

In reality, everyone is moving blindly ahead in the face of the scenario opened by the pacts made between the U.S. Attorney’s Office and drug lords extradited to the United States, who have agreed to plead guilty in exchange for avoiding the death penalty request threatened by the government. The loot handed over to Trump between February and August of this year includes more than 50 drug traffickers, some of them very high-profile, who could bring down many politicians south of the border with just a few words.

While the PAN has seized the opportunity, the ruling party has also not shied away from reminding the conservative opposition of the drug trafficking ties of former secretary of security Genaro García Luna, sentenced in the United States to 38 years in prison for organized crime. “Let’s look at the complicity between organized crime and the government [of Felipe Calderón], given the hypocrisy the PAN members are now displaying,” Morena president Luisa María Alcalde said, taking up the gauntlet of the Mexican president, who on Tuesday morning echoed the DEA director’s remarks, placing the former public official on the same level as El Mayo and Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, another long-time leader of the Sinaloa Cartel.

The abstract accusations are intertwined, courtesy of the generality of El Mayo’s phrasing, which stretches like chewing gum from one end of the political spectrum to the other. It will be a different story, experts agree, when the trickle of names begins, if any of the more than 50 cartel detainees in the U.S. decide to speak out.

El Mayo’s criminal activities date back to the 1980s and have spanned administrations of very different stripes, none of which enjoy immunity, as Morena deputy Ricardo Monreal has warned, already foreseeing the possible consequences. “There is a competition between the [political] parties to distance themselves from this character and foist him on the other, without taking into account the longevity and transversality of the Sinaloa Cartel,” he reminded colleagues and adversaries this Tuesday.

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