The omnipresent Trump (also) dominates Mexican politics

There is not a month without Trump, a week without Trump, or even a day without Trump. Mexican politics is completely dominated by the U.S. president’s omnipresence in matters that concern both countries, and there are many: the fight against drug trafficking and criminal organizations, migration, money laundering, corrupt politicians, and the important trade agreements that have the entire country on edge, given the asymmetry in the bilateral relationship and Mexico’s many economic dependencies on the northern giant. Headlines led by the United States monopolize the media. Last week, in particular, Washington began its Mexican agenda by accusing two businessmen of bribing the state oil company Pemex, followed by the delivery of 26 cartel prisoners to Washington, and ended with the arrest in Texas of Carlos Treviño, the last director of Pemex during Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration (2012-2018). And that wasn’t all. There was praise from the Trump administration for cooperation between “allies,” followed by a full-blown slap in the face: “Mexico does what we tell them to do. And Canada does what we tell them to do,” the U.S. president said.

Mexico’s subservient relationship with the United States to rescue the economic horizon is here to stay, according to analysts, who after eight months of the Republican’s second term have seen nothing but a carrot and stick approach, with little coherence in strategy. President Claudia Sheinbaum sees no other way out than to invoke Trump’s personality when asked about his unexpected statements: “Well, you know how the president expresses himself,” assuming that beyond his bravado, agreements are moving forward. But what is moving at full speed are security policies, a non-negotiable demand from the Republican to advance everything else. Secretary of Security Omar García Harfuch continues to present results of drug seizures, dismantled laboratories, and captured criminals. Along the way, he justifies other suspicious actions, such as the flight of U.S. aircraft with remote crews over Mexican forests and cities: the drone that flew over Valle de Bravo last Wednesday, he said, is being investigated at the express request of the Mexican government; Or that the prisoner shipments north without an extradition order respond to national security regulations. The same entanglement applied to the former director of Pemex, Treviño, who was initially reported to have been detained under an extradition order and later said to have been arrested for immigration reasons, and will be handed over to Mexico to continue the ongoing legal proceedings against him for criminal association and illicit assets. Each chapter seems to flout the rules of the rule of law to immerse itself in obscure cooperation agreements between the two countries. But almost no one doubts that Trump is pulling all the strings anymore.

“It’s been going on for eight months and it feels like three years,” such is the intensity of the daily political exchange between the two nations, says Josué González, a security expert at the faculty of political and social sciences at UNAM. “Nothing like this has ever been seen in this entire modern era. It doesn’t seem like international or diplomatic relations, but rather a negotiation with a company 20 times smaller,” he says, alluding to Trump’s attitude toward Mexico, which he describes as “absolute power” over the entire world. “The level of pressure is brutal, like nothing we’ve ever experienced before.” Despite everything, he acknowledges that Mexico is coping, “without raising the tone, because it can’t,” delivering tributes, he says, and with clean operations, without incidents “that would have been impossible a few years ago.” Regarding security, the expert affirms, as well as in the fight against drug trafficking, Sheinbaum’s administration is presenting results that distance it from the previous policies of her predecessor.

Every cloud has a silver lining, summarizes internationalist Aribel Contreras, who repudiates Trump’s threats but appreciates the benefits of his pressure on Mexican policies: “For those of us who disagree with these administrations of the 4T (the Fourth Transformation, a political project led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador), which pulverize democracy, trample on institutions, and dilute the three branches of government, Trump is preventing this government’s agenda from penetrating,” affirms the expert from the Universidad Iberoamericana. Contreras adds that the migration policies of the previous administration were “a mess” and that, in any case, Trump’s populism is compounded by the populism of Sheinbaum when she replies that “in Mexico only the people govern.” “These are powerful phrases that appeal to the [ruling party] Morena electorate, just as Trump’s statements appeal to his,” explains Contreras. What remains to be seen, she adds, is whether the two of them and Canada will be able to address the pressing trade issues that concern them. Meanwhile, Trump, she notes, has forced everyone into bilateral talks, something Mexico and Canada should have prevented by all means, given their shared trade agreement.

González already assumes that nothing can be done about Hurricane Trump, other than to evade the storm as best Mexico can. “At no point will these relations be diplomatic, and we will always be subject to the ups and downs and impacts of his statements. Mexico only has to manage this. And we can no longer rule out other actions, with him or with whoever comes next, because the kidnapping of ”El Mayo" Zambada [in July 2024] already demonstrated the entry of U.S. agencies into Mexican territory.”

The United States ambassador to Mexico, Ronald Johnson, has outlined his 10-point plan for “collaboration” during these 90 days of the tariff truce. It is the unequivocal list of duties for the entire mandate. It cites “transfers” of prisoners, reducing migration and fentanyl trafficking, hitting cartel finances, and even water transfers across the border and cooperation in the 2026 World Cup. Point seven mentions the designation of cartels as terrorist organizations, which “unlocks a wide range of new powers and resources to combat them.” It doesn’t seem like there’s much to add.

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