In Argentina, Javier Milei runs up against political realities

Javier Milei’s shouts and insults don’t intimidate like they used to. This past week, the 24 governors of Argentina led a rebellion in the Senate, where the provinces are represented, approving laws that increase fiscal spending. It was a direct blow to the president’s economic model, which had achieved a budget surplus after laying off 50,000 public employees, closing or merging around a hundred state agencies, and halting all public works.

The austerity measures allowed Milei to lower inflation, an achievement he repeatedly claims will be enough for “freedom to sweep” the legislative elections in October. The governors’ revolt, mostly led by his own allies, quietly brewed while Milei took no action to stop it. Convinced that he leads a crusade of “heavenly forces” against “leftist sons of bitches,” the far-right president burned all bridges for negotiation. Unwilling to engage in the art of compromise, he has run up against the realities of politics.

Milei doesn’t have any governors aligned with him and counts on barely six out of 72 senators and 27 out of 257 deputies. Still, since coming to power in December 2023, he has managed to get laws he deemed essential for his project approved, even securing a one-year delegation of legislative powers. He took a chainsaw to the state and ruled unchallenged. The Argentine opposition is decimated.

Peronism — Argentina’s dominant leftist movement for much of the past 75 years — has yet to recover from its defeat by an eccentric figure, and its main leader, Cristina Kirchner, is imprisoned on corruption charges. PRO — the party of former liberal president Mauricio Macri — is now little more than an acronym. It has taken shelter in the government of Buenos Aires City and was forced to merge with Milei’s party La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances) in the rest of the country. A majority of provincial governors — who wield territorial power — had until now bowed to the central government, driven by their provinces’ urgent need for federal funding.

With the economy under control and a public approval rating hovering around 50%, Milei appeared to have the wind at his back. But his own missteps and a clear political amateurism triggered a self-inflicted crisis that has rattled the far right.

“This is the weakest government since the return of democracy, and it’s a poor payer,” says political analyst Carlos Fara. “Those helping Milei govern feel he hasn’t delivered on many of his promises, and that was bound to cause friction at some point. It happened now in the Senate.”

Political scientist Pablo Touzon, director of the consultancy Escenarios, agrees: “There’s something in the government’s dynamic that brings it back to self-sabotage just when it seems to be doing well. He had nearly all the provincial leaders on his side — but he used and alienated them.”

Argentina is a federal country. Since the 19th century, its provinces have had their own constitutions and legislatures. They are largely funded by shared tax revenues: the central government collects, then redistributes. To reach a fiscal surplus, Milei withheld those funds — which legally don’t belong to him.

Lara Goyburu, executive director of Management & Fit, says: “Many governors supported Milei because they believed the macroeconomy needed fixing, but now they see that their legislative backing hasn’t translated into the return of public works funds, for example — and that’s affecting their administrations.” “Today’s fiscal surplus is a false one,” Fara warns. “If I achieve it by keeping your money, sooner or later you’re going to demand it back.”

Upcoming elections

Patience ran out with the approach of the elections. Milei’s party, emboldened by economic successes and strong polling numbers, decided to run its own candidates in every district — even against candidates aligned with the government.

“What the governors wanted,” explains Touzon, “was to avoid having a libertarian list in their provinces. They were looking to negotiate, not to pick a fight. If they’re confronting now, it’s because a larger force pushed them to.”

Milei is applying the same logic to political parties. Macri’s PRO backed him on the premise that it was time to bury Kirchnerism once and for all. In return, they got an all-out assault from the far right in Buenos Aires — their last electoral stronghold — and an offer of total submission in the rest of the country.

Meanwhile, Peronism, the only major opposition force, is in disarray. Cristina Kirchner’s imprisonment has blocked any chance of renewal. “It’s entered a state of entropy, a festival of internal feuds that ignores voters’ concerns,” says Touzon. “It’s closed in on itself, because with Kirchner in jail, she’s managed to stifle any notion of succession. That creates moral pressure and coercion, which means nothing new is likely to emerge anytime soon.”

Milei is triumphing in a ring with no real opponents — but keeps tripping over himself. As the Senate prepared on Thursday to defy the government, the president declared the country was facing an “attempted institutional coup.” He accused the governors of trying to “destroy” his administration, supposedly driven by the “desperation” of seeing his party surging in the polls.

Milei then announced that he would veto the newly approved legislation and said he was ready for battle on December 11 — when the new lawmakers elected in October take office. Since the start of the Senate session, pro-Milei social media activists or influencers — bankrolled with public funds — had been calling for the president to “send in the tanks” and blow up Congress “with every senator and deputy inside.” Within hours, the ultra government went from feeling untouchable to theatrically warning of a coup attempt.

How did it come to this? For Touzon, it stems from a belief that “it’s now or never” — the ultras feel this is the moment to go all in. Their recent win in Buenos Aires’ legislative elections — where they fiercely challenged Macri’s candidates — “convinced them they’re self-sufficient and don’t need allies,” he says.

Fara takes it further: “At some point, Milei chose to let the bills advance in Congress, thinking he could spin it to his advantage electorally. If the dollar becomes volatile or country risk rises, he already has someone to blame.” He’ll be able to point the finger — without remorse — at “the caste,” his elastic catch-all label for politicians, business leaders, journalists, unionists, and anyone else who dares oppose him and thus earns the title of “filthy leftist.”

This strategy is reinforced by Milei’s confrontational style, which constantly produces new insults and slurs. The list is long: “sodomized mandrills,” “Republican nerds,” “dainty little formalists,” “mental parasites,” “eunuch donkeys.” His verbal aggression — echoed by many of his ministers — only grows, fueled by the belief that his base is mostly young and enjoys the show. “That young vote has a different sensibility,” says Lara Goyburu. “What seems shocking to us is appealing to Freedom Advances.”

If the polls are right, far-right candidates are poised to perform very well in October, and Freedom Advances will have even greater representation in the next Congress. But there’s still a ceiling to Milei’s ambitions: no matter how well he does, his party is starting from such a low legislative base that it won’t achieve the majority needed to pass its most radical reforms. The day after the elections, he’ll still have to negotiate — with the same allies he’s currently trying to annihilate.

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