The lessons of ‘Otis’ and ‘John’: Mexico avoids catastrophe from ‘Erick,’ the first major hurricane of 2025

Hurricane Erick made landfall in Oaxaca on the morning of June 19, in the municipality of Santiago Pinotepa Nacional, about 340 kilometers (210 miles) from the state capital. It did so at category 3, with winds of up to 205 kilometers per hour (127 mph) and gusts of 250 kmph (155 mph). A few hours earlier, it had reached category 4 but gradually decreased in intensity as it entered Oaxacan territory and became a tropical storm. The result, as reported by local and federal authorities, is “white.” In other words, there has been no loss of human life or missing persons reported. In less than 24 hours, the government set up hundreds of shelters and deployed a security force of more than 30,000 personnel to prepare and support the population in the face of the threat. Fresh in the collective memory was the havoc wreaked by hurricanes John and Otis on those same coasts in 2024 and 2023.

“We are not alone,” said the governor of Guerrero, Evelyn Salgado, a few hours before Erick made landfall in the southeastern part of the state. She was referring to the more than 18,000 troops that the federal government had sent to southern Mexico as a preventive measure — a number which later topped 30,000 — to respond to the population’s needs. The Guerrero state administration’s social media has been reporting on the watch zone since June 15 when the chances of the storm approaching the Pacific becoming a hurricane increased. “We have already had the experience of Otis, we must follow the recommendations,” wrote one citizen on the governor’s networks.

In less than 12 hours, Erick went from category 1 to category 4. As it approached the coast, it hit land as a category 3. The rapid increase in intensity was reminiscent of Otis in 2023, which made landfall at category 5, the highest on the Saffir-Simpson scale, devastating Guerrero. Slightly less lethal was Hurricane John in September 2024, a cyclone that made landfall twice: the first time as category 3 — affecting 270,000 people and leaving 23 dead — later to return to land as a tropical storm.

Meteorologists José Martín Cortés and Christian Domínguez agree that what is relevant about Erick is how strong it is given that this is just the start of the hurricane season, which began on May 15 and ends on November 30. The most powerful hurricanes usually occur at the end of the season, in the months of September and October, as was the case with John and Otis. In June, these weather events are not usually so intense. Domínguez also stressed that between 13 and 19 tropical cyclones are expected to form in 2025, when the historical average over the past 30 years is 16.

But Erick did not pose the same level of threat as Otis, due to the collaboration of the governments of Oaxaca and Guerrero with the national Directorate of Civil Protection and the close monitoring of President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has been warning of the danger that Erick was beginning to represent since the G-7 summit in Canada: “There is a probability that it will evolve into a category 2 hurricane and make landfall tomorrow, Wednesday. We ask the entire population of the coasts of Chiapas, Oaxaca and southern Guerrero to keep themselves informed,” she wrote on social media.

Loudspeakers in the streets of Guerrero, the setting up of shelters in the most vulnerable municipalities, and the transfer of families to shelters coupled with conferences and daily broadcasts were part of the strategy that offered thousands a degree of safety in the affected states. From June 18, federal authorities had more than 8,000 soldiers, 9,000 members of the Navy, 37 employees of Conagua — the National Commission of Water — and 91 specialized teams preparing for Erick. This was in addition to 665 personnel from the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), which has 154 cranes and 51 lighting towers deployed in the area.

The implementation of preventive programs ensured that the population had the means to reach safety. “We recognize that today there is greater awareness, a greater culture of Civil Protection, and many are heeding the recommendations,” said the governor of Guerrero. However, some fishermen in Oaxaca are taking stock of their losses.

In Puerto Escondido, a turbulent sea snatched away at least six boats and sunk another six while the waves destroyed the pier. Although Navy personnel are still cleaning the streets and coasts, those affected complain that they were not helped. “It’s a difficult moment. All of us in the fishing sector are having a hard time. We can’t work, and we don’t know when we will be able to as the engines were damaged. We want the authorities to take note,” a fisherman told the local media. In the background, a dozen boats appeared destroyed or half-sunk. The tourism and fishing sectors are waiting for the weather to improve so that they can resume their activities. The waves, on the eve of Erick’s landfall, were several meters high and cleared everything in their path.

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