Fresh off election victory, Canada’s leader plans to begin talks with Trump administration

For the first time in almost a century, Canada’s two main parties, which have alternated in power for decades, each obtained around 43% of the vote in the parliamentary elections held this Monday. The endorsement confirms the historic dimension of the election, with Canada in the crosshairs of the U.S. president, his tariff war, and his imperialist threats of annexation. Mark Carney, the Liberal leader who won the election, doubled down on his warnings to Washington in his victory speech, addressing Donald Trump by stating that Canada has “many more options” and potential partners and allies and needs not cower in the face of his threats. “Trump is trying to break us, but that will never, ever happen,” was both his battle cry and victory cry.

“When I sit down with President Trump, it will be to discuss the future economic and security relationship between two sovereign nations, and it will be with our full knowledge that we have many, many other options than the United States to build prosperity for all Canadians,” said Carney, anticipating one of the main challenges of his new term. He cited Europe and Asia as continents where Canada can find new partners.

According to local media reports, the leader is expected to form a new cabinet in the next two weeks. A senior Liberal official told The Globe and Mail that by Canada Day, on July 1, the government plans to present a new budget that includes the promised middle-class tax cuts and legislation to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers. Carney will also reduce the number of portfolios in his government to no more than 30. But his top priority is to immediately begin new trade and security negotiations with the Trump administration, especially as tariffs on cars and auto parts are scheduled to take effect on May 3.

The main challenge for Carney, a two-time central banker in Canada and the United Kingdom, will be managing an increasingly tense relationship with the United States, as demonstrated by the Republican’s interference on Canada’s election day when he reminded Canadians that he still wants to make their country the 51st state of the United States. His message on the Truth Social platform was flatly rejected by both Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who otherwise shares the Republican’s ideology.

“We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons,” Carney warned in his victory speech early Tuesday morning. “As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country. These are not idle threats: President Trump is trying to break us, so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen, but we also must recognize the reality that our world has fundamentally changed,” he added, recalling that the traditional and privileged relationship between the two neighboring countries since World War II has ended and that other countries with fewer ties to Canada now appear better positioned both to engage in trade relations and to cooperate in matters of security and defense.

Foreign policy had not dominated a Canadian election campaign since 1988, when, ironically, free trade with the United States was the predominant theme of political platforms and speeches. Achieving an armistice in the tariff war will be Carney’s priority, given that more than 75% of Canadian exports go to the United States, and Trump’s desire for automakers to move production to the U.S. could be the final straw in that offensive. During the campaign, Carney promised that every dollar the government raises from counter-tariffs on U.S. products would go to workers harmed by the trade war, particularly those in the aluminum, steel, and auto industries.

The Liberals and Conservatives engaged in a close race that had not yet concluded this Monday in key ridings of the Greater Toronto Area, the country’s economic capital. However, it left the former on the verge of an absolute majority, and the latter in a better position than the polls had predicted, although their leader, Pierre Poilievre, lost his House seat to a Liberal. He will be the leader of the opposition, but without parliamentary representation.

The Liberals’ re-election to a fourth consecutive term, following Justin Trudeau’s three previous terms, is a victory in itself, given the poor results predicted by the polls just two months ago. Far from the triumphalism of other leaders, Carney based his victory speech on the value of humility, which will be a stark contrast to Trump’s arrogance when they sit down to negotiate the tariff offensive and the free trade agreement, which Carney considered dead when he announced the end of the privileged relationship in late March.

An elusive majority

With most ballots counted, it increasingly looks like Carney will lead a minority government that will require additional support from other parties in parliament to approve some of his initiatives. In any case, his mandate will revolve around Canada’s resilience, independence, national cohesion, and unity as the main assets to withstand Trump’s onslaught. “No matter where you live, no matter what language you speak, no matter how you voted, I will always do my best to represent everyone who calls Canada home.,” he stated, with a clear nod to his political detractors and the millions of foreigners who swell Canada’s demographics, which have grown exponentially during Trudeau’s years in power.

Carney’s governing plans are as much about the economy as they are about redefining the country and its national cohesion, which has been somewhat disjointed since Trudeau defined Canada as a post-national country in 2015. Canada’s new formulation—the classic one, a country founded on its dual British and French heritage—would not only bring it closer to Europe, but also to the potential support that a minority government would need to manage its foreign and domestic economies, such as from the separatist Bloc Québécois, from French-speaking Québec.

The Liberals were projected to win 169 seats of Parliament’s 343 seats (an outright majority is set at 172) while the Conservatives were projected to win 144. The separatist Bloc Québécois party was expected to finish with 22 seats, the progressive New Democrats with seven and the Greens with one.

This means that Carney may be able to rely on the support of the New Democrats and avoid collaborating with the Bloc, which would impose more difficult conditions, such as the management of immigration or its non-negotiable secularism law, which the Liberals reject.

The New Democrats not only lost seats, but also their leader, Jagmeet Singh, who after eight years in office has been the hardest hit by tactical voting and the shift of votes to Carney. With their support for previous Trudeau governments, the New Democrats had managed to pull the Liberals slightly to the left. While the last parliament seats wait to be allocated, what is certain is that Carney will be able to form a new government. In Canada there are no coalition governments, nor are there rewards in the form of ministerial positions or senior posts for the party that supports the executive when necessary.

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