An experienced and pragmatic economist to succeed Trudeau (and take on Trump)

Among the many unexpected consequences of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, perhaps few are more surprising than the fact that ice hockey, a passion in Canada, has become a symbol of the renewed nationalism of a country not given to expressing such feelings, as well as a central argument in its political debate. The change at the head of the Liberal Party, staged this Sunday with a vote in which the economist and former governor of two central banks, Mark Carney, obtained 89.6% of support to succeed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, was another great symbol. Once the succession was confirmed, Carney, with no political experience and a steep road ahead of him, used the simile of sport. “Americans should make no mistake,” he said, “In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.”

Carney, 59, was referring both to the trade war launched by Trump against Canada with the cycle of tariff impositions and postponements, and to the recent victory of the national team over the United States in a high-tension final that allowed Canada to claim the Four Nations tournament. Not only that: the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England was also talking about his own personal history. Married since 1994 to Diana Fox, another economist, with whom he has four daughters, he played Canada’s most popular sport in his teens and during his university years, and is a die-hard fan of the Edmonton Oilers. In his acceptance speech for the Liberal leadership, he boasted of Canadian values, which he said he learned at home and also from his hockey coaches.

In addition to that sportsmanlike ethic, Carney also presents as credentials to become Canada’s prime minister — until elections are held at some point to be determined this year — his pragmatism and proven success in dealing with difficult situations. “Canadians know that new threats demand new ideas and a new plan. They know that new challenges demand new leadership,” he said Sunday. He also lashed out at Trump and Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, his main rival at the polls, whose prospects have worsened considerably since hostilities with the southern neighbor began. In another unexpected consequence of the Trump effect, an electoral victory that the Conservatives took for granted just a few weeks ago is no longer so clear, according to the polls.

Trudeau took the Liberal helm in 2013 and, two years later, became prime minister thanks to his charisma and a long list of promises. Over the years, low popularity ratings and internal frictions within his government would plague his tenure, which finally pushed him to announce his resignation on January 6.

Carney’s style, very different from Trudeau’s, has hit the nail on the head given the circumstances: a party that was constantly falling in the polls and a trade war with the Americans. Carney avoids launching proposals in bursts, points to his extensive CV, and relies more on quiet work than on making a splash in front of the cameras. He is a political outsider, a product of technocracy, and from the outset of this new stage of his career he has made it clear that he will not hesitate to stand up to Trump.

Mark Joseph Carney was born in 1965 in Fort Smith, a city in the Northwest Territories, although he spent his childhood and adolescence in Edmonton, Alberta. He graduated in economics from Harvard and Oxford. He worked at Goldman Sachs for 13 years, in London, Tokyo, and New York. He then joined the Bank of Canada, where he rose through the ranks to become governor of the institution between 2008 and 2013. He held the same position at the Bank of England between 2013 and 2020. He subsequently worked as UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance, and served on the boards of several firms.

During the pandemic, he accepted an advisory position with the Trudeau government. In September 2024, Trudeau appointed him as a special adviser to the Liberal Party of Canada. When the party's crisis was already evident, Trudeau offered him the Ministry of Finance. Carney declined that invitation; he knew that a bigger opportunity might soon open up. And he was right: on January 16, he announced his candidacy for the leadership of the Liberal party.

Carney promised during his internal campaign for the Liberal leadership to “get the country’s economy back on track,” and he highlighted his experience in monetary policy, mainly during the 2008 economic crisis and Brexit. His proposal, among other points, includes cutting taxes and managing the budget in a more balanced way, a message that seeks to distinguish itself from Trudeau’s years in power. As hostilities with Washington increased following the threat of tariffs, Carney shifted his focus to Donald Trump. A few days ago he said that Trump’s plans to weaken Canada would not succeed and that his country was ready to win the trade war. On Sunday, Carney declared that his government will maintain tariffs on American imports until Washington shows “respect.”

He also devoted time to Poilievre, whom he described as a danger to the country. The Conservative leader replied that the Liberals want to deceive Canadians in order to stay in power, having replaced Trudeau with their economic adviser. He defined Carney as a “globalist and an elitist.” Poilievre and Carney will face each other in an election that is expected to take place before October, the date stipulated in the electoral calendar, but that can be modified because the Liberals govern in a minority (and, therefore, it is possible that they want to bring forward the date to avoid instability).

For now, the decision on when is up to Carney. Parliamentary work resumes on March 24. Carney has the option of presenting a government plan after that date, although at the risk of losing a vote of confidence and causing the fall of the Liberal administration. He can also call an early election before Parliament reopens — the scenario cited by analysts as the most likely, given the reduction of the significant Conservative lead over the Liberals in recent polls. In this way, Carney could try to turn the situation around and ensure that his party continues to govern despite strong gusts of headwinds for many months. Or he could lose and go down as one of the shortest-serving prime ministers in Canadian history.

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