Why Bashar al-Assad trembles

Bashar al-Assad was saved by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The Syrian dictator managed to retain power over the past decade thanks to the support of these allies. In recent years, the situation seemed relatively stable. But now Moscow is undermined by the immense effort of its war against Ukraine, Tehran is weakened by Israeli attacks, and the Lebanese militia is in ruins after the devastating Israeli offensive. The diminished capacity of these actors to provide backing is the crucial element to understand the lightning advance of the Syrian rebels, a heterogeneous conglomerate of radical Islamist forces and other militias for which Turkey represents a decisive source of support.

The picture is clear. The Kremlin is providing Damascus with essential air support. Although the Russian Air Force is not the arm of Vladimir Putin’s war machine that has been most exhausted by the war in Ukraine, it is evident that three years of wear and tear on that front are taking their toll, and that Moscow has reduced its attention on Syria. Iran has seen its projection in the country — and to some extent in Iraq — completely inhibited by Israel’s relentless strikes and it also has the challenge of deciding whether and how to respond to the latest Israeli blow, while its military inferiority has become plain. Hezbollah, which was essential as a ground force supporting Assad, and also in the framework of mercenaries from other countries who fought for the regime, is in a state of extreme weakness.

But there is another key to understanding what is happening, which is the extraordinarily opportune — for the rebels — coincidence of several political developments in important places: the transition in Washington, with the new administration not due to be installed until January 20; the truce between Israel and Hezbollah, which spares Turkey the embarrassing image of being behind a strike against Israel’s enemies that brutally crushes Muslim civilians; and, although of lesser importance, the transition of power in the EU and a China absorbed in serious economic problems.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov that what happened is “part of an Israeli-American plan to destabilize the region,” according to local media cited by Reuters. It is true that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made abundantly clear his intention to reshape the order of the region by breaking the backbone of the “axis of resistance” that runs from the Mediterranean to Tehran, connecting Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad’s Syria, Iraq — led by Shiite factions — and the Islamic Republic. He has made this clear with deeds and words, going so far as to say that regime change will soon come to Tehran.

However, the current situation is probably not a subversive plan by the Israeli government. It seems to be rather an action supported by Turkey at a perfect time to weaken Assad, Iran, and Russia, while also placing the Kurdish militias in difficulty. They have the support of the United States, now distracted by the democratic transition. The rebels’ lightning offensive puts them in the complex position of converging with Assad against the same adversary in a suddenly dramatic situation.

What is happening in Syria is evidence of the growing global interconnection of conflicts. There is an immense arc of conflict that stretches from Gaza to North Korea — which provides military support to Russia— including Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey — which is militarily involved in Syria — Iraq, Iran, Georgia — with a frozen conflict and Russian troops stationed on its territory — Russia, and Ukraine. The communicating vessels influence strategic decisions.

Azerbaijan took advantage of Moscow’s weakness in Nagorno-Karabakh, with the abrupt capitulation of the Armenians while Russia stood by and watched. Now the Syrian rebels are trying the same trick. In this case, the Kremlin will undoubtedly try to support a key ally, in a country that allows it a significant military projection in the Mediterranean. It remains to be seen how much strength it can wield. Assad, on his own, has very little. Meanwhile, the transition of power in Washington promises to be very long.

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