María Corina Machado sweeps the opposition’s presidential primary in Venezuela

María Corina Machado won the opposition primary in Venezuela this Sunday, early returns indicated, and is emerging as Nicolás Maduro’s main competitor in the presidential elections expected to be held in 2024. Machado, as the polls had suggested, had no close rival and obtained 93% support with 26% of the ballots counted, in a consultation that was held simultaneously in Venezuela and 28 other countries. The vote took place without any glitches despite a host of logistical problems. The ballot was self-managed by the opposition without any technical support, but the challenges were resolved along the way and nothing deterred thousands of Venezuelans who waited in long lines under the sun and the rain to cast their vote.

Machado’s success is a great first victory for a fractured opposition that has managed to move forward with the process and choose a unity candidate, but it opens up a big question. In June, the politician was banned by the Comptroller General of Venezuela (CGV) from running for elected office for 15 years over alleged fraud and tax violations. In 2015, the first time she was targeted by the CGV, the latter argued that Machado had not included some bonuses she received as a lawmaker in her asset declaration. Machado denies the allegation. Then, this year, she was hit with an administrative decision banning her from running, partly over her defense of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela. This latest judicial decision coincided with a surge in her popularity, in another example of how the government resorts to legal tricks to hinder the opposition.

It remains unclear whether Machado will be able to register as a candidate in the presidential election. In the agreement reached by the opposition Unitary Platform of Venezuela and the Maduro administration in Barbados last week, it was specified that authorization “for all candidates and political parties” will be promoted for next year’s election, but it is not at all clear that this will really be the case. The government has already ruled out the possibility of lifting the ban on Machado, although there will be pressure from Washington, which has just announced the temporary lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan oil, gold and gas, and which said it will only continue along this path if the government works on ensuring free and fair elections in 2024. Machado is not the kind of rival that the ruling Chavista movement likes to see. In the polls she surpasses Maduro himself in popularity. The president has slumped in popularity due to the country’s agonizing crisis, and Machado’s candidacy has breathed some hope into a large segment of Venezuelan society.

The desire for change brought millions of Venezuelans to the streets to vote in the primary. Up to 21 million people were called upon to vote at a ballot that was entirely organized by the opposition using its own resources and which did not even get coverage from the national media, pressured by the government to ignore the process. The election was also rejected by a minority of the opposition, who believed that the conditions were not there to hold a consultation of this magnitude with guarantees. But nothing could stop the flow of voters, who stood in long lines well past the original closing time at polling stations. The results had been expected around 10 p.m. local time, but internet servers began to fail hours after the voting centers closed, delaying the count and the announcement of results. The first early result was released after midnight, with 26% of the votes counted. After Machado, who had no close rival, the second most voted candidate was Carlos Prosperi, with 4.75% of the votes.

The primary was held at a time of understanding between the United States and Venezuela. In Barbados, the government and the opposition agreed to hold the presidential election in the second half of 2024, as established by the constitutional calendar. Until now, Chavismo had refused to set a date. Other agreements were reached, such as the need to invite electoral observation missions. Washington viewed all this as progress and announced that it was easing sanctions, while waiting for Maduro to take more steps towards democracy. Hours later, the government of Caracas released five political prisoners. In just 24 hours, the negotiation made more progress than in the entire last year.

These announcements, although they have occurred with little success in the past, nevertheless renew the hopes of Venezuelan society, which has been in a political paralysis for years, more concerned with surviving day to day than with inventing a new way to get rid of Chavismo. The real victory of the primaries is the fact that so many Venezuelans took to the streets to elect a competitor for Maduro.

The road ahead is still long and full of difficulties. Machado has lots of citizen support, but even though all the opposition parties have promised to respect the result of the primary, the candidate maintains a difficult relationship, if any at all, with other leaders of Venezuela’s democratic forces. The politician is considered to be within the radical wing of the opposition: she defends privatization and the economic reduction of the state, in addition to leading a hard line against Chavismo that sought to end Maduro’s administration by force with U.S. help, a theory that gained momentum during Donald Trump’s administration but never moved beyond the realm of theory.

Now, Machado is determined to oust Maduro at the polls, but nobody knows what she will do if the government prevents her registration in the presidential election. Other opposition leaders, such as the also disqualified Henrique Capriles, defend that if authorization is not achieved, another unity candidate would have to be chosen who can compete against Maduro. But that debate will come later. For now, Venezuelans are celebrating the success of a primary that enormous difficulties could not hold back.

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