Venezuela’s opposition candidates limp toward the primaries

There are only a few days left until the Venezuelan opposition’s primary elections on October 22. Various factions and parties have agreed to unite and nominate a single candidate to run against President Nicolás Maduro in the 2024 presidential election. María Corina Machado is currently leading comfortably in opinion polls. However, the primary is facing challenges from various fronts, including predictable hostility from the ruling Chavista regime and criticism from pro-democracy groups who have lost interest in it. The election on October 22 will be difficult to carry off without the logistical support of the National Electoral Council (CNE), since the voting process will be self-managed and manual.

Diosdado Cabello, a prominent legislator and Maduro ally, rants about the primary every week on his television program and doubts it will ever be held. Cabello even called for an investigation (that never happened) of José María Casal, the director of the primary organizing committee. As Machado’s popularity rises, even moderate opposition factions are starting to question the benefits of the primary.

After Henrique Capriles bowed out of the primary in mid-October, the Fuerza Vecinal political party also withdrew their support and called for its cancellation. The pro-democracy alliance is also wondering about Un Nuevo Tiempo, a party that has so far failed to nominate a candidate. The party was founded and is led by Manuel Rosales, governor of the state of Zulia, who has voiced presidential aspirations outside of the primary process. Carlos Prosperi, the Democratic Action candidate, recently posted a video on social media saying he doesn’t have any information about his voting center, adding more doubt concerning unresolved logistical issues. Various members of electoral committees around the country have also resigned.

Some social sectors coopted by Chavismo — journalists, analysts and civil activists — say this is not the right time for a primary. María Carolina Uzcátegui, who resigned from the primary organizing committee and is typically cautious with the media, has repeatedly called for organizers to be realistic and truthful regarding all the problems. She wants the election to be cancelled to avoid misleading and disappointing the public. Luis Alejandro Ratti, a relative newcomer to Venezuelan politics, has presented several motions to the Supreme Court seeking sanctions for María Corina Machado and contesting the primary election itself.

Some opposition politicians privately expressed concerns about the potential for significant, unforeseen issues on October 22. Several voting centers set up by volunteers and small landowners had to be abandoned due to tax issues and threats by the ruling party. Despite these problems and media censorship, the primary election appears to be proceeding as planned, and the organizers continue to put on a brave face. The most recent survey shows that around 40% of people intend to vote in the primary. The public is aware of the event and paying attention, even if many are not fully committed to participating. Some groups say a turnout of 1.5 million people would be satisfactory.

Roberto Abdul, a member of the primary organizing committee, stated there will be 3,000 voting centers nationwide with 5,000 tables. They will be situated in 331 out of the 335 municipalities and in 1,100 parishes. Around 15,000 trained election workers will staff the voting centers. Venezuelans living abroad will also be able to vote, and ballots have already been printed. Representatives from Venezuelan civil society organizations will act as election observers.

Despite the resignations and ballot changes (Freddy Superlano of Voluntad Popular has withdrawn and is backing Machado), the 12 candidates and their parties have reiterated their commitment to the primary. Amid intense negotiations between the Venezuelan and U.S. governments in Doha (Qatar), there are indications that Maduro will allow the primaries to proceed. For now, the ruling regime has refrained from pressuring the Supreme Court and the CNE to suppress the primaries, and just announced a deal with the opposition on electoral conditions that should be signed promptly.

The increasingly unpopular president is preparing for potential protests and occasionally firing salvos at his adversaries. He has strengthened a unified security force consisting of military, police, civilian groups and militia members to provide “social intelligence” and suppress or prevent protests, all under the guise of maintaining public safety. Civilian volunteers in the primaries are deeply concerned about what these government security forces could do on election day.

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