The war in Ukraine as of March 25: Kyiv’s defenders launch counterattacks
Ukrainian forces also attacked two Russian ships and an ammunition deposit in the occupied city of Berdyansk, putting Moscow’s troops on the defensive
March 25 | Counterattacks
The Ukrainian offensive northwest of Kyiv has relieved some of the pressure on the capital over the past three days, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The city’s defenders recovered ground south of Borodyanka and on the E-40 highway, in an attempt to surround Russian troops occupying Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel. Ukrainian forces also repelled Russian attempts at advancing on the city of Brovary from the northeast and completely encircling Chernihiv.
In a display of its ability to inflict serious damage, the Ukrainian army attacked two Russian ships and an ammunition deposit in Berdyansk, a city they have been occupying for weeks. According to the UK Defense Ministry, these attacks against logistical targets on Russian-controlled territory could force Moscow’s troops to defend their supply chain and it could also limit their ability to carry out offensive operations.
Active
advance
Counterattacks
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Earlier
advance
Recent bombing
Recent
fighting
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Brovary
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Mykolaiv
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
MOLD.
Melitopol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Counterattacks
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombing
BELARUS
Kursk
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Counterattacks
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombing
BELARUS
Kursk
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Central nuclear
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
In northwest Ukraine, Russian forces continued to bomb Kharkiv but did not conduct any ground attacks in the last 24 hours.
In Mariupol, in southeast Ukraine, Russian forces entered the city center and continued to gain ground. Local authorities have left the city “to better coordinate regional operations,” according to the ISW.
One month into the invasion
Today marks one month since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. In that time, the strategy has shifted from one of swift advance towards the main cities to the current tactics of besieging and bombarding populations from a distance.
Russian advance
Besieged city
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Konotop
Sumy
Chernobyl
Kyiv
UKRAINE
Kharkiv
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
Mariupol
Odessa
Kherson
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
Black Sea
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Besieged city
Russian advance
BELARUS
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Konotop
Chernobyl
Sumy
Irpin
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
Mariupol
MOLD.
Odessa
Kherson
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
Black Sea
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Foreceful entry. Russia had massed nearly 190,000 soldiers along the Ukrainian border before the offensive, which began on February 24. On that day, troops penetrated Ukrainian territory on four fronts: the north, with the capital Kyiv as the goal; the northeast to reach Sumy and Kharkiv; the south on a path across the annexed peninsula of Crimea; and the east through the pro-Russian separatist region of the Donbas. Russian troops made swift progress at the beginning, and in just one week had reached the outskirts of all the main cities.
Besieging the main cities. Russia began a strategy to wear out local authorities. The cities of Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv were encircled but they continue to resist to this day. Russian soldiers also reached Kherson in southern Ukraine. Mariupol, a key city in the southeast, was surrounded in early March and has since been subjected to incessant shelling. Agreements on humanitarian corridors are allowing some residents to flee the besieged city following several failed attempts and broken promises. The strategy of surrounding Kyiv from the northwest and northeast has so far failed due to strong Ukrainian resistance.
Indiscriminate bombings. The Russian advance came to a halt outside Kyiv and Mariupol, but troops took control of Kherson on their way to the port city of Odessa. Continuous bombardments are destroying urban infrastructure and the conflict is slipping into a stalemate. The Russians are unable to physically occupy most of the cities due to the Ukrainian resistance, and appear to have shifted their strategy: now they are launching heavy artillery attacks from a distance. The tactic has been on display in Kyiv for the past week, and it is the same one that has reduced Mariupol to rubble, even though the city refuses to capitulate. The United Nations has reported a civilian death toll of 900 to date, although the international organization admits this figure is almost certainly an undercount.
March 23 | Russian advance on Mariupol
Russian troops did not make any significant progress in the last 24 hours in their attempts to control besieged cities. Continued attacks on the port city of Mariupol, however, have reduced the Ukrainian resistance in the city center, where street-by-street fighting is taking place, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said there are nearly 100,000 people trapped in a city in ruins, where they are going hungry and thirsty while the Russian airstrikes continue unabated. Ramzan Kadyrov, the president of Chechnya, a republic of Russia, reclaimed that Chechen fighters are taking control of Mariupol “quarter by quarter” – one city block at a time. Social media users have independently confirmed the presence of Chechen units around Mariupol, said the ISW in its latest update.
Active
advance
Earlier
advance
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent bombing
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Brovary
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Mykolaiv
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
MOLD.
Melitopol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombing
BELARUS
Kursk
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Central nuclear
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombing
BELARUS
Kursk
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Central nuclear
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
In northeast Ukraine, Russian forces did not conduct any offensives against Chernihiv, Sumy or Kharkiv, said the ISW. A senior US Defense Department official said that Russian troops were “coming down out of Kharkiv toward Izium, to the southeast of Kharkiv, which is believed to be an attempt to cut off the joint force operations area that’s basically the Donbas, the department noted in a report. This could be one of the main reasons for Russia’s insistence on capturing Mariupol, as the city could be used as a base to send troops north to meet those marching south from Izium.
Ukrainian troops launched a series of counterattacks around the city of Mykolaiv, in southern Ukraine, and near Kyiv, where they claimed to have retaken control of two small populations northwest of the capital. Local Ukrainian sources also reported Russian forces “entrenched” around Bucha, northwest of Kyiv, according to the ISW. And the UK Defense Ministry said that the battlefield in northern Ukraine remained largely static and that Russian troops are likely conducting a reorganization before launching new large-scale attacks.
The Ukrainian army said it had recorded 80 flights by Russian fighter jets over Ukrainian airspace in the last 24 hours. The ISW said it is unlikely that the invading forces will be able to subjugate Ukrainian cities with just airstrikes. According to the ISW, the media organization CNN “quoted multiple sources on March 21 that the US has been unable to determine if Russia has appointed an overall commander for the invasion of Ukraine. These sources stated that Russian units from different military districts appear to be competing for resources and are not coordinating their operations.”
March 22 | Renewed shelling
There were no major advances for Russian troops. The war is approaching a stalemate, with Russia unable to take control of key cities such as the capital, Kyiv, Instead, the army is resorting to long-range missiles to bomb them from afar.
Northeast and northwest of Kyiv, Russian forces continued to shell the city and reinforce their positions, but they did not carry out offensives, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The bulk of the troops remained around 15 miles (25 km) from the city center, as reported by the UK Defense Ministry.
Active
advance
Earlier
advance
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent bombing
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Brovary
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Mykolaiv
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
MOLD.
Melitopol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombing
BELARUS
Kursk
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombing
BELARUS
Kursk
Chernihiv
RUSSIA
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine, where for weeks they have been besieging the cities of Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv.
In southeastern Ukraine, Russian troops continued their slow advance on Mariupol, which they have been trying to take for weeks. Hundreds of thousands of citizens remain trapped in a city where civilian infrastructure has been heavily shelled.
March 21 | The siege of Kyiv and Mariupol continue
Russian troops barely made any progress in recent days, but they continued to strike the capital, Kyiv, as well as Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov, from their positions in the outskirts of both cities.
In Kyiv, most of the fighting has taken place in the north and northeast, according to the United Kingdom Defense Ministry’s intelligence reports. This is the area where the Russians have come nearest the capital in recent weeks. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russian troops are no longer trying to advance, but are instead preparing to provide logistical support while they deploy missiles and long-range weapons. On Monday morning there were verified video and photographic reports of an airstrike against a shopping center in the heart of the city.
At least six people died in a Russian airstrike against a shopping center in Kyiv. Reuters and Google Street View.
This repositioning appears to be a clear sign that Russia has given up on trying to encircle the city, and will instead focus on a long series of airstrikes from positions outside the city center, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In Mariupol, Russian troops continued to advance slowly. No new ground has been gained in recent days, but the city remains under siege. Incessant airstrikes have now hit dozens of buildings. Unlike in Kyiv, Russian troops have managed to secure a few areas of Mariupol, according to the Russian army. At least 365 buildings have been destroyed in an operation that has lasted two weeks now, according to an analysis by the United Nations Satellite Center (UNOSAT) based on satellite images. According to this data, bombed sites include three hospitals and seven schools.
Buildings hit in Mariupol’s Livoberezhnyi
district
Destroyed
Severe damage
Moderate damage
Possible damage
Analyzed
area
Mariupol
Military area
(not analyzed)
1 km
Fuente: UNITAR - UNOSAT.
Buildings hit in Mariupol’s Livoberezhnyi district
Destroyed
Severe damage
Possible damage
Moderate damage
Analyzed
area
Mariupol
Mariupol
Military area
(not analyzed)
1 km
Source: UNITAR-UNOSAT damage assessment
Buildings hit in Mariupol’s Livoberezhnyi district
Destroyed
Moderate damage
Possible damage
Severe damage
Analyzed
area
Mariupol
Mariupol
Military area
vv
1 km
Source: UNITAR-UNOSAT damage assessment
Buildings hit in Mariupol’s Livoberezhnyi district
Destroyed
Moderate damage
Possible damage
Severe damage
Analyzed
area
Mariupol
Military area
(not analyzed)
Mariupol
1 km
Source: UNITAR-UNOSAT damage assessment
March 20 | The danger of a prolonged war
The Russian strategy of besieging the main cities to force their capitulation has met with very little success in the past week. As a result, Moscow has opted for indiscriminate airstrikes in besieged urban areas, leading to greater destruction and death of civilians, according to UK intelligence reports.
Active
advance
Earlier
advance
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Sumy
Brovary
Kiev
Lviv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Dnipro
Deliatin
Zaporizhzhia
Krivoi Rog
MOLD.
Volnovaja
Mykolaiv
Kherson
Odessa
Mariupol
ROMANIA
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Lutsk
Irpin
POLAND
Brovary
Yitomir
Kiev
Lviv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Dnipro
Konstantinovka
Deliatin
Donbas
Krivoi Rog
Donetsk
Zaporizhzhia
Volnovaja
MOLD.
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
Kherson
Mariupol
Odessa
Berdiansk
ROMANIA
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombings
RUSSIA
Kursk
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
POLAND
Lutsk
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Yavoriv
Kiev
Lviv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Dnipro
Konstantinovka
Deliatin
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Krivoi Rog
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
ROMANIA
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
The Kremlin’s forces were getting ready for a heavy artillery attack against Kyiv, according to the ISW, which warned that troops deployed in the northwest of the capital were taking up positions in spots where they might be able to reach the city center with their strikes.
Russian forces lack the means to mount an efficient siege of major cities such as Kyiv, Odessa or Kharkiv, in the ISW’s view. The battered city of Mariupol is small by comparison.
Berestyanka
Zdvyzhivka
Brovari
Kiev
20 km
Ozera
Berestyanka
Zdvyzhivka
Brovari
Kiev
20 km
Ozera
Berestyanka
Zdvyzhivka
Brovari
Kiev
20 km
Ozera
Russian troops northeast of Kyiv, in satellite images taken last Thursday. AFP / Maxar Technologies.
This strategy could lead to a stalemate that could make the conflict drag on indefinitely, warned the ISW. Russian troops could continue to bomb Ukrainian cities indiscriminately while Ukrainian forces would keep inflicting casualties on the Russian side. “Ukraine’s defeat of the initial Russian campaign may therefore set conditions for a devastating protraction of the conflict and a dangerous new period testing the resolve of Ukraine and the West,” said the ISW.
March 19 | A change in strategy
Ukraine reported 14 missile attacks in recent hours, one of them in Deliatin, some 100 kilometers from the border with Romania.
Russian troops barely made any gains, largely due to two factors: Ukrainian resistance, which is testing the material and human resources of Russia, and a possible change of strategy by the Kremlin. The goal may now be to conduct a war of attrition, according to British intelligence reports. This may be a result of a high casualty count on the battlefield for the Russians. Instead, military leaders may be switching to a strategy of wearing out the population.
March 18 | Ukrainian counterattacks affecting Russian supply lines
Russian troops did not make any significant gains on any front on Thursday. Ukrainian counterattacks, particularly in the Kyiv area, inflicted “heavy casualties” on the Kremlin’s forces, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Incessant Ukrainian counterattacks are forcing Russia to divert a large number of troops to defend their own supply lines, said the United Kingdom’s Defence Ministry in its daily update. “This is severely limiting Russia’s offensive potential.”
Active
advance
Earlier
advance
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
bombings
Recent bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Sumy
Brovary
Kyiv
Lviv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Dnipro
Zaporizhzhia
Krivoi Rog
MOLD.
Volnovaja
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
Kherson
Odessa
Mariupol
ROMANIA
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
POLAND
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Lviv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Krivoi Rog
Donbas
Donetsk
Zaporizhzhia
Volnovaja
MOLD.
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
Kherson
Mariupol
Odessa
Berdiansk
ROMANIA
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent
bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kursk
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
POLAND
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Lviv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Krivoi Rog
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Volnovaja
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
ROMANIA
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
“Reluctance to maneuver cross-country, lack of control of the air and limited bridging capabilities are preventing Russia from effectively resupplying their forward troops with even basic essentials such as food and fuel,” added the report.
Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian efforts to encircle Kyiv and the southern city of Mykolaiv. But the cities of Kharkiv, Chernihov, Sumy and Mariupol are encircled and under constant shelling.
In the west, the mayor of Lviv said that several missiles had struck near the airport before dawn on Friday. A plume of smoke could be seen in the area, reported EL PAÍS correspondent Luis de Vega. Lviv, a city of 700,000 residents, is located near the border with Poland and until now it had been considered a safe place for Ukrainians fleeing other parts of the country.
In the south, some reserve forces of the Russian naval fleet that is stationed near the port city of Odessa were deployed to Mariupol in what appears to be an effort to support the ongoing assault there, said the ISW.
In the east, Russia said on Thursday that separatist forces in the Donbas region captured several towns after making limited territorial gains.
March 17 | The Russian invasion has stalled
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has “largely stalled on all fronts,” according to the United Kingdom Defense Ministry’s latest intelligence report. Moscow’s forces have made minimal progress on land, sea and air in recent days and continue to suffer heavy losses, said the report. “Ukrainian resistance remains staunch and well coordinated. The vast majority of Ukrainian territory, including all major cities, remains in Ukrainian hands.”
Russian troops failed to make any progress on any of their four fronts: the attempt to encircle the capital Kyiv, the assault on Kharkiv, the advance on Donetsk and the capture of Mariupol. There were also no significant gains in the push west from Kherson.
Active
advance
Earlier
advance
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
bombings
Recent bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Lutsk
Sumy
Brovary
Kyiv
Lviv
Kharkiv
Yavoriv
UKRAINE
Dnipro
Ivano-Frankivsk
Zaporizhzhia
Krivoi Rog
MOLD.
Volnovaja
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
Kherson
Odessa
Mariupol
ROMANIA
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Lutsk
Irpin
POLAND
Brovary
Yitomir
Yavoriv
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Lviv
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Lugansk
Dnipro
Krivoi Rog
Donbas
Donetsk
Zaporizhzhia
Volnovaja
MOLD.
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
Kherson
Mariupol
Odessa
Berdiansk
ROMANIA
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent
bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kursk
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
POLAND
Lutsk
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Yavoriv
Kyiv
Lviv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Krivoi Rog
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Volnovaja
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
ROMANIA
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAÍS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).
Russian troops conducted several unsuccessful attacks northwest of Kyiv on Wednesday, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). There were no major ground operations in Chernihiv, Sumy or Kharkov, three cities that the Russian army is attempting to encircle.
In the meantime, Russian forces continued to pound civilian targets. According to Ukrainian authorities, a theater in Mariupol that was being used as a shelter was struck on Wednesday, and at least 10 people died while lining up for bread in Chernihiv. Before dawn on Thursday emergency services also reported an attack against a residential building in Kyiv.
The United States estimates that 7,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine in these past three weeks, according to information published by The New York Times. There could be an additional 14,000 to 21,000 injured out of a total of 150,000 troops, according to the Pentagon’s calculations. This casualty rate could make it difficult for combat units to carry out their tasks.
March 16 | Advances in the Kherson province
The Russian advance in Ukraine has been slowing for several days now when compared to the early stages of the offensive. The Russian troops have not carried out simultaneous attacks on the different fronts since March 4, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The biggest Russian advances in the last day were in the south of the country, where Russian troops have been mounting a series of attacks from Kherson, toward Zaporizhzhia.
In the south, the Russian Defense Ministry stated on Tuesday that it had taken control of the Kherson province, although the ISW limited that advance to certain areas in the northeast of that area. This move could be aimed at surrounding Zaporizhzhia, something that seems unlikely, at least until this front can receive reinforcements from the Russian troops that are currently trying to force the surrender of Mariupol, in the east of the country.
Russian troops are encountering difficulties in replacing the losses that they are suffering, according to British intelligence services. This difficulty is impeding the invading troops from consolidating positions that they have secured as well as from carrying out multiple offensive operations, given the Ukrainian resistance.
In the east, the outskirts of Mariupol – which is located on the coast of the Sea of Azov – have suffered constant Russian air and artillery attacks, both in residential areas and on civil infrastructure. The ISW believes that the surrender of Mariupol will be the next turning point in the conflict, given that the Ukrainian defenders of the city are likely to be left without ammunition or drinking water in “the near future.”
The capture of this city, which has been under siege practically since the start of the offensive, would free up Russian troops that the army could send to the east of Zaporizhzhia and toward the area of the Ukrainian coast that Russia is yet to control: Odessa. This port city was bombed last night by a number of Russian ships, according to Anton Yuriiovych, an advisor at the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs.
On the outskirts of Kyiv, the Russian troops launched a number of attacks on different areas in the northwest of the capital, while on the eastern flank of the city, the combat units continued to receive reinforcements.
March 15 | Russian troops make no progress towards Kyiv
There were no significant changes to the situation on the ground. Russian forces launched several attacks northwest of the capital, Kyiv, and unsuccessfully attempted to bridge the Irpin river, according to the ISW.
The Russian army did not advance east of Kyiv and might be lacking sufficient troops to renew the offensive on that front for a few days. According to Rochan Consulting, an independent defense consulting firm, Russian soldiers were held back by Ukrainian forces in Brovary, northeast of the capital.
Active
advance
Earlier
advance
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
bombing
Recent bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Lutsk
Sumy
Brovary
Kyiv
Lviv
Kharkiv
Yavoriv
UKRAINE
Dnipro
Ivano-Frankivsk
Mykolaiv
Volnovaja
MOLD.
Melitopol
Kherson
ROMANIA
Mariupol
Odessa
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombing
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Lutsk
Irpin
POLAND
Brovary
Yitomir
Yavoriv
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Lviv
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Lugansk
Dnipro
DONBAS
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Volnovaja
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Odessa
Melitopol
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
ROMANIA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kursk
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
POLAND
Lutsk
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Yavoriv
Kyiv
Lviv
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Lugansk
Dnipro
DONBAS
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Volnovaja
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
ROMANIA
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
Airstrikes on Kyiv continued on Monday, when a projectile hit a residential building in the northern neighborhood of Obolon. There were more strikes on Tuesday and two residential buildings in the districts of Podilsk (northwest) and Osokorky (southeast) were reportedly hit, according to Ukrainian emergency services.
In southern Ukraine, Russian troops resumed their attacks from Kherson toward Mykolaiv but Ukrainian forces were able to contain them, according to the ISW.
In recent days, Ukrainian citizens have staged public protests in Kherson, Melitopol and Berdiansk against the Russian occupation. According to the UK Defense Ministry, Russia may be trying to organize a “referendum” in Kherson in a bid to legitimize the area as a “separatist republic” similar to Donetsk or Luhansk, in eastern Ukraine, which Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized as republics shortly before launching the invasion.
March 14 | Russia secures positions in the Donbas region
The Russian army conducted few ground offensives on Sunday save for the Donbas region, where it secured new positions in Donetsk and Luhansk, according to the latest report by the ISW. Operations were renewed on Monday, however, when Ukrainian emergency services reported that two people were killed in an airstrike against a residential building northwest of the capital, Kyiv.
In the east, Moscow’s forces launched several attacks in the area extending north of the besieged city of Mariupol. The Ukrainian army said the Russians have captured several towns but that their own forces were able to repel an offensive in Volnovaja, a town of 21,000 residents located between the Sea of Azov and the city of Donetsk, around 40 miles (65 km) from Mariupol. Volnovaja has been hard hit by airstrikes in recent days.
Active
advance
Earlier
advance
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
combat
Recent bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Lutsk
Sumy
Brovary
Kyiv
Lviv
Kharkiv
Yavoriv
UKRAINE
Dnipro
Ivano-Frankivsk
Zaporizhzhia
Mykolaiv
Volnovaja
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
ROMANIA
Mariupol
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Annexed by
Russia in 2014
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
combat
Recent
fighting
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Lutsk
Irpin
POLAND
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Yavoriv
Kharkiv
Lviv
Izium
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Lugansk
Dnipro
DONBAS
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Volnovaja
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Odessa
Melitopol
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
ROMANIA
Annexed by
Russia in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kursk
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
POLAND
Lutsk
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Yavoriv
Lviv
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Izium
Ivano-Frankivsk
Lugansk
Dnipro
DONBAS
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Volnovaja
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
ROMANIA
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by
Russia in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
In the south, the British Defense Ministry said that Russia has established a distant blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, thereby isolating the country from international maritime trade. Russian naval forces are continuing to carry out missile strikes against targets in Ukraine, said the ministry in its latest intelligence update. “Russia has already conducted one amphibious landing in the Sea of Azov and could look to conduct further such operations in the coming weeks,” said the report.
In the west, there were Russian airstrikes against military facilities near the border with Poland.
March 13 | Airstrikes hit western Ukraine
Russian airstrikes hit targets around 15 miles (25 km) from the border with Poland, which is a member of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Ukrainian authorities said Russia launched around 30 missiles against a military base in Yavoriv, near Lviv, a major city in western Ukraine. Following the Friday attacks on Ivano-Frankivsk and Lutsk, this represents the third Russian offensive in an area that up until this weekend had been deemed relatively safe for Ukrainians fleeing the country as well as for the delivery of Western resources to the local army.
Around Kyiv, Russian troops renewed their attacks with the goal of encircling the city. The New York Times reported on street-by-street battles in suburbs such as Irpin, west of the capital.
Active
advance
Avance
anterior
Russian
control
Besieged
city
Controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent bombing
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Lutsk
POLAND
Sumy
Brovary
Kyiv
Lviv
Kharkiv
Yavoriv
Dnipro
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Zaporiyia
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
ROMANIA
Mariupol
CRIMEA
Black Sea
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence.
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
Controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombing
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Lutsk
Irpin
POLAND
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Yavoriv
Kharkiv
Lviv
Izium
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Lugansk
Dnipro
Zaporiyia
Donetsk
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
ROMANIA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence.
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
Controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombing
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kursk
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
POLAND
Lutsk
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Yavoriv
Lviv
Kharkiv
Izium
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Lugansk
Dnipro
Zaporiyia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
ROMANIA
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by
Russia in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence.
Even so, the Russian army did not appear to have gained new territory. Logistical problems, growing losses and Ukrainian counter-attacks have been slowing down Russian forces’ advance, according to the ISW. This would explain why they have not launched a major attack on Kyiv in recent days, although new troops appeared to be deploying on this front.
There was no progress towards Kyiv from other directions, either. Russian forces have for days been trying to capture Chernihiv (north). Near Sumy (northeast), Ukrainian forces said they had attacked and destroyed several Russian vehicles. In Kharkiv (east), the second largest city in the country, the front had barely moved while the fighting and the Russian airstrikes continued.
In the south, Ukrainian authorities said Russian troops have captured suburbs east of Mariupol, which has been under intense attack for days. It is here that Russian bombs destroyed a hospital’s maternity ward. According to the ISW, the Kremlin’s goal is not to march into the city with its troops, but to keep up the airstrikes and isolate the city in order to force its citizens to surrender. Ukraine said that a convoy carrying 90 tons of food and medicine is already on its way to Mariupol.
March 12 | The Russians are massing forces to encircle Kyiv
Russian troops have made no progress for a week. In the last 48 hours they tested the Ukrainian defenses west of Kyiv without success. They failed to take Kharkiv, made no progress on their path towards Mykolaiv or Zaporizhzhia, and same near Donetsk and Luhansk, according to the ISW.
Active
advance
Earlier
advance
Russian
control
Besieged
city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fightning
Recent bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Lutsk
Kyiv
Brovary
Kharkiv
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Dnipro
Zaporizhzhia
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
ROMANIA
CRIMEA
Annexed by
Russia in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does "control" mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying thea area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
Controlled by
the Russians
Recent
fightning
Recent
bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kursk
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Lutsk
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izium
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Lugansk
Dnipro
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Odessa
Mariupol
Kherson
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
ROMANIA
Annexed by
Russia in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does "control" mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying thea area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
Active advance
Earlier advance
Russian control
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Combate reciente
Recent bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kursk
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Lutsk
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Izium
UKRAINE
Ivano-Frankivsk
Lugansk
Dnipro
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
MOLD.
Melitopol
Mariupol
Odessa
Kherson
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
ROMANIA
Annexed by
Russia in 2014
250 km
Black Sea
Note: What does "control" mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying thea area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy.
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
In Kyiv, Putin’s troops continued to try to encircle the city, attacking on three flanks. The fighting continued in the northwest, with Russian soldiers around 15 miles from the city center, according to a British Defense Ministry intelligence report from Saturday. The vehicles in the enormous convoy that was detected 10 days ago appear to have dispersed, either to surround Kyiv or to be less vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.
The Russians are also approaching Kyiv from the east, around Brovary. However, according to the ISW, their forces have not secured new territory and part of the contingent appears to have fallen back to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks in the Sumy region.
The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain under siege and air bombardments. On Friday, Ukrainian authorities reported bombing in Mykolaiv.
In the south, Ukrainian forces halted Russian advances from Crimea, in the north and the west. Russian forces have been dealing with growing problems with supplies and troop morale, according to the ISW.
March 11 | “Limited” progress and new airstrikes
Russian troops have been making “limited” progress in Ukraine in recent days, according to British Defense Ministry intelligence reports. The invading ground forces have been dealing with logistical problems and with “strong Ukrainian resistance.” This pushback throughout the north of the country, from eastern Kyiv to the city of Sumy, continues to disrupt the Russian army’s efforts to move more troops towards Kyiv in order to encircle the city, according to the ISW.
On the 16th day of fighting, British intelligence reports said it was “highly unlikely that Russia has achieved the objectives outlined in its pre-invasion plan.” But Moscow is still expected to reorganize its forces for a renewed offensive, probably including attacks against the capital.
In eastern Ukraine, Russian troops bombed civilian areas in Dnipro, a city that had so far not come under attack, said Ukrainian emergency services. In the northwest, Russia claimed to have bombed and rendered inoperative the airbases of Ivano-Frankivsk and Lutsk. Local authorities in the latter municipality, which is near the Polish border, said they heard explosions during the night. Mikhaílo Podoliak, an advisor to the president of Ukraine, confirmed attacks on all three cities.
Meanwhile, Russian troops continued to put pressure on besieged cities like Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Mariupol. Ukrainian resistance in these enclaves is forcing Russia to devote more resources to them, slowing down their advance to other parts of the country, said the United Kingdom. The Russian Defense Ministry on Friday announced it will declare a ceasefire in the capital and in those four cities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an overnight address that around 40,000 people had been evacuated on Thursday via humanitarian corridors.
March 10 | Russian troops test Kyiv’s defenses
Russian troops did not make significant progress. According to the British Defense Ministry intelligence reports, there was a notable drop in air operations thanks to an efficient Ukrainian defense.
In the north, Russian troops renewed their attempt to encircle Kyiv, and on Wednesday they tested the Ukrainian defenses at several points, as confirmed by the ISW and Rochan Consulting. According to Ukrainian information gathered on Tuesday, five Russian battalions launched an attack near Bucha, around 15 miles northwest of Kyiv. Four more battalions reportedly advanced on Yasnohorodka, 23 miles southwest of the capital’s center, in a bid to reach Kyiv from that direction as well. British intelligence on Thursday provided an update on a convoy of Russian vehicles first spotted northwest of Kyiv a few days ago, and which has made little progress over the past week; the convoy has reportedly suffered continuous losses.
Russian forces are besieging five cities, according to British intelligence reports: Chernihiv, Sumy, Konotop, Kharkiv and Mariupol. Hundreds of thousands of people are trapped in these locations without food, water, electricity or medicines.
Shopping mall
1
Mariupol
Shopping mall
2
3
Residential neighborhood
Residential
area
4
Sea of Azov
1
Shopping mall damaged in attack/ Maxar
2
Shopping mall reduced to ashes / Maxar
3
Residential neighborhood / Maxar
4
Residential neighborhood after bombing / Maxar
1
2
Shopping mall damaged in attack/ Maxar
Shopping mall reduced to ashes / Maxar
Shopping mall
Mariupol
1
Mariupol
Shopping mall
3
2
Residential neighborhood
4
Residential
area
Sea of Azov
3
4
Residential neighborhood / Maxar
Residential neighborhood after bombing / Maxar
1
2
Shopping mall damaged in attack/ Maxar
Shopping mall reduced to ashes / Maxar
Shopping mall
Mariupol
1
Mariupol
Shopping mall
3
2
Residential neighborhood
Residential
area
4
Sea of Azov
3
4
Residential neighborhood / Maxar
Residential neighborhood after bombing/ Maxar
After several unsuccessful attempts to establish a safe route to evacuate residents from Mariupol, Ukraine and Russia held another meeting on Thursday, but it ended without agreement. “Ukraine has proposed a humanitarian corridor to and from Mariupol and a ceasefire of at least one day to address the humanitarian problems of civilians. The Russian side did not agree. I am willing to continue negotiations,” said Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Satellite images published on Thursday by the private US company Maxar Technologies show the damage caused by Russia’s bombardment of key infrastructure in Mariupol, which has been in a critical situation for days.
March 9 | Few advances and new bombings
The Russian army continued to bomb Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol, some of Ukraine’s main cities, as it prepared for a siege of Kyiv.
The humanitarian crisis led both sides to agree to a 12-hour ceasefire starting early on Wednesday to provide some relief for the hundreds of thousands of people trapped in cities under attack. Ukrainian authorities said that they were only able to carry out evacuations in Sumy and Energodar.
Recent advances
Under Russian
control
(as of March 9)
Previous advances
Besieged city
City controlled by the
Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Chernihiv
Konotop
Irpin
Sumy
Kyiv
Brovary
Kharkiv
Bila Tserkva
UKRAINE
Donbas
Central
nuclear
Zaporizhzhia
Mykolaiv
Odessa
Melitopol
Kherson
Mariupol
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legit
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
Recent advances
Previous advances
Under Russian control (as of March 9)
Besieged city
City controlled
by the Russians
Recent
fighting
Recent
bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kursk
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Bila Tserkva
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
Rostov
del Don
Melitopol
Mariupol
Odessa
Kherson
MOLD.
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legit
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
Recent advances
Previous advances
Under Russian control (as of March 9)
Besieged city
City controlled by the Russians
Recent fighting
Recent bombings
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Kursk
Chernihiv
Konotop
Sumy
Irpin
Belgorod
Brovary
Yitomir
Kyiv
Kharkiv
Bila Tserkva
UKRAINE
Lugansk
Dnipro
Donbas
Zaporizhzhia
Donetsk
Nuclear power plant
Mykolaiv
Rostov-on-Don
MOLD.
Melitopol
Mariupol
Odessa
Kherson
Berdiansk
Sea of Azov
CRIMEA
ROMANIA
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
Black Sea
250 km
Note: What does “control” mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legit
Sources: ISW, United Kingdom intelligence
In the south, Russian troops were apparently trying to reach Odessa, the main port on the Black Sea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on social media that Russia has bombed a children’s hospital in Mariupol, a city where the situation is “apocalyptic” according to the Red Cross. The hospital has been destroyed, as seen in footage verified by this newspaper, and local authorities said that 17 people have been injured.
Near the capital, the most active front was in Irpin, in the western outskirts of Kyiv, where civilians have been hit by shelling in recent days. Russian troops did not make any gains, but they were reportedly concentrating their forces ahead of new operations. All analysts agree that Russia’s goal is to encircle Kyiv and force it to surrender.
In northeastern Ukraine, there was fighting in Chernihiv and in Sumy, two cities from which Russian troops are trying to create a communication line to Kyiv. In the east, British Defense Ministry intelligence reports talked about shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second biggest city. From here, it is believed that Russian forces are seeking to connect with the troops currently deployed in the Donetsk and Donbas regions to create a large front in this part of the country.
March 8 | Supplies and reinforcements for the siege
Russian troop movement around Kyiv has several goals: surrounding the capital from several sides, accumulating supplies and reinforcements, and cutting off the city’s links to the outside world, according to the ISW. The Kremlin is reportedly massing tanks and men on two flanks: the northwest one, where it is trying to gain control of the cities of Irpin, 15 miles from the capital, and Bucha, three miles further north. On the eastern flank, the target is Brovary, a small town on the outskirts of Kyiv. In both cases, Russian soldiers are running into resistance from Ukrainians.
Shelling has also been reported in the last two days around 59 miles south of the capital, in the city of Bila Tserkva. This could be an attempt to reach Kyiv from a front where there was little activity in previous days, according to the Rochan Institute and The Guardian.
Evacuation in Irpin on the bridge to Kyiv on Tuesday, after a safe passage was opened. Sergey Supinsky (AFP).
A day earlier, Russian troops had fired on civilians leaving Irpin on that same bridge to the capital. Emilio Morenatti (AP).
The Russian attack on the bridge area caused several civilian casualties among Ukrainians. Roman Pilipey (EFE).
Irpin and the surrounding area was bombed at the beginning of the invasion, and Hostomel airport was rendered useless. Planet Labs (PBC).
A residential neighborhood in the north came under heavy shelling between March 1 and 2. Serhii Nuzhnenko (Reuters).
The fighting reached the city. There are images of Russian tanks in a neighborhood near the Bucha River. @Militarylandnet.
Irpin, a dormitory town of around 60,000 residents, has become a containment wall against Russia’s advance west of the capital. It was targeted for bombing at the beginning of the invasion and it has been the scene of fighting over the past week.
Russian soldiers may be using “siege-and-starve” tactics on the city, using a strategy that was already used in Syria, according to the ISW. The goal is to get the population to surrender by preventing water and food from coming in, said Ukrainian authorities.
Last Sunday, images of civilians killed by artillery fire as they were trying to flee Irpin created greater pressure for humanitarian corridors to evacuate people and bring in supplies. Attempts at establishing safe passages failed on Monday, but were established on Tuesday in Sumy and Irpin. Around 150 people had fled the latter city in the early morning hours, according to local authorities.
In the east, fighting continued in major cities such as Kharkiv and Sumy, where a bomb attack killed at least 10 people according to Ukrainian authorities. The city of Mariupol is reportedly surrounded by Russian troops.
In the south, a bloody battle took place on Monday for control over the city of Mykolaiv, according to The New York Times. This is a key port on the Black Sea and would help Moscow prepare its attack on Odessa. If it manages to take both cities, Russia will have almost total control over the country’s access to the sea.
