Two Sandinista fronts battle for votes in Nicaragua

Sunday's presidential race in Nicaragua is actually being seen by many as a plebiscite on Daniel Ortega's re-election to another five-year-term. It is also being viewed as a referendum on the Central American nation's destiny in which voters will have to choose between a populist caudillo or an institutional regime.

Absent from this year's campaign are the typical Sandinista revolutionary slogans or any reminders of the so-called 1979-90 "civil conflict" with the US-backed Contras. For a long time now, Nicaraguan politics has not been defined by the struggle between leftists and rightwing conservatives.

The latest polls show that Ortega, leader of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), is heading to victory with at least 48 percent of the popular vote. It will be a third term for Ortega - his first term was from 1985-1990 - following his controversial constitutional reform that allowed him to run for re-election and was upheld by "friendly" judges, but which is viewed as illegal by the liberal opposition.

Fabio Gadea, the 80-year-old leader of the Independent Liberal Party (PLI), is expected to come in second with around 31-percent support. The owner of an important radio station, Gadea is very popular - especially in the rural areas where people often tune in to his satire show in which he plays Pancho Madrigal, a poor farmworker who makes simple observations about Nicaraguan life. Gadea is backed by the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS).

Former President Arnaldo Alemán, who governed from 1997 to 2001 and has supported Ortega on most of his controversial measures, places third in polls with 11 percent.

The political polarization between both Sandinista fronts created by Ortega and Gadea is noticeable on the streets of Managua. It is still too early to assume Ortega will win an absolute victory; the opposition claims there are still 10 percent of undecided voters and blame Alemán's candidacy for dividing the anti-FSLN vote.

For its part, the FSLN has opted to keep a low profile. Its supporters, mainly young people, have taken the campaign to the squares of different cities where they hold mini-rallies using Ben E. King's popular 1962 ballad Stand by Me, with new lyrics written by first lady Rosario Murillo, as a backdrop.

"Ortega has widened his grassroots base. He has strong support in the capital and among the country's most moderate sectors, especially among the young and the poor," said Carlos Fernando Chamarro, editor of the weekly Confidencial and son of former President Violeta Chamorro.

Dora María Téllez, a former FSLN guerrilla who violently took over Congress in 1978, said Ortega is mimicking former dictator Anastasio Somoza, the man he helped overthrow. "Daniel has done what all rightwing populist caudillos have done - liquidate the institutions and turn their family members into a closest circle of loyal supporters."