Business leaders want early elections

Spanish business leaders say they have lost confidence in the government's economic policies and want it to bring forward elections slated for next March, according to a survey carried out by EL PAÍS and consultants Deloitte Touche.

The survey, carried out between June 15 and July 19, polled the responses of 232 companies, among them half of those in the blue-chip Ibex 35, and showed that following the governing Socialist Party's hammering in May's regional and local elections at the hands of the Popular Party, Spanish business leaders believe that the time has come for a change of government.

Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero said in the wake of his party's electoral defeat on May 22 that he intended to press ahead with labor reform and drastic cuts to public spending. Since then, he has announced that he will not be running for a third term in office at the next general elections. Former Interior Minister Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba will now be the Socialist Party's candidate to lead the next government.

But the international money markets have kept up pressure on Spain, which along with Italy, is seen at risk of contagion from the Greek financial crisis. Spain continues to pay around 300 basis points more to borrow money than Germany, thus crippling any chance of medium-term growth.

In this context, some 67 percent of companies polled believe that elections should be brought forward, against 18.9 percent who say that the government should continue to the end of the current legislature.

The speed with which Rubalcaba was named to replace Zapatero has led some commentators to doubt the prime minister will keep his promise and wait until March before calling elections.

More than 62 percent of business leaders surveyed say that the Popular Party, which enjoys a 14 percentage point lead in the opinion polls, will win the next election, and that this would strengthen Spain's position in the international money markets.

The media has been pushing the story that Spain's economic crisis and political instability could force the Socialist Party into calling elections, saying that the government is preparing behind the scenes to call a snap election, probably in November.

Socialist party heavyweight José María Barreda, the outgoing president of the regional government of Castilla-La Mancha, said earlier this month that early elections may be appropriate.

"If the situation continues to be as extraordinarily complicated as it is then bringing forward the elections may be advisable," said Barreda, who was beaten by the PP in May's elections.

But Labor Minister Valeriano Gómez insisted the government was committed to elections in early 2012.

"It must be clearly stated that our program is a program to finish the legislature sometime around March," he told a news conference.

"The return from (the Christmas break) is when the parliament should be dissolved and an election held, at the end of February or the beginning of March. That is our idea, and our program has not changed."

The PP is ready to govern "now, in the fall or in March", said the party's secretary general María Dolores de Cospedal, adding that it was time for Spanish politics "to make an about-turn."

Unemployment, the highest in the industrialized world at more than 21 percent in the first quarter of 2011, traditionally falls in the summer due to seasonal work contracts, which could give the Socialists a boost.

But other arguments back the holding of elections in March, including the government's determination to move forward with its economic reforms and a need to let as much time pass as possible following the rout in local elections.

If elections are scheduled for November, there is unlikely to be an announcement before September. Until then, Zapatero will continue to affirm that he intends to see out his mandate.

Zapatero, who was first elected in March 2004, announced in April he would not seek a third term.

A survey in the first quarter of 2011 showed that 68.7 percent of business leaders were critical of the Zapatero government's handling of the crisis.

The area of government policy that won the most support among business leaders is pensions, with 26 percent backing the government's decision to delay retirement. Just 18.7 percent supported the public spending cuts.