One less question

On Saturday, the Socialist Party's federal committee approved primary elections to decide on a successor to Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in the next general election, which must take place before March next year. In doing so, the committee has ruled out the idea of holding an extraordinary general congress ? as had been proposed by the Basque Socialist Party leader, and head of the Basque regional government, Patxi López. Instead, the federal committee accepted his suggestion that the party hold a conference after the summer parliamentary recess to examine current policies and to look at new ideas.

In all likelihood, there will be just one candidate announced at the end of June following the upcoming primaries: Deputy Prime Minister Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, who has been unanimously backed by the party's regional leaders.

The idea of putting forward a single candidate is to limit the damage caused by the Socialist Party's disastrous performance in the May 22 regional and municipal elections by avoiding infighting. Not that the crisis is over yet; but the federal committee's announcement can be seen as an important first step. The party's longer term fate largely depends on whether the economy improves.

It should not be forgotten that the problems facing the Socialist Party are not internal. The electorate, and many of the party's own supporters, have turned their back on the Socialists. The regional election results may not translate into a rout at the general elections, but there is no doubt that there is widespread disaffection that will be hard to overcome.

The federal committee has, to all intents and purposes, resolved the question of who will lead the Socialist Party in the general elections. But other doubts remain. Are Rubalcaba's Cabinet responsibilities compatible with those of his candidacy? If he steps down he would largely disappear from the public eye; but if he stays on, he will be criticized by the opposition. That said, in the past, prime ministers have run for a second and third term in office, with no conflict of interest being raised by the opposition.

The conference proposed for September will offer little scope for an overhaul of the Socialist Party's program: at the same time as examining the policies that have alienated much of the electorate, Zapatero will have to continue applying them. The country's economic climate will also make it difficult to implement any kind of major change. If the Socialist Party comes up with new campaign proposals, the electorate might reasonably ask why it doesn't just go ahead and implement them now. Given his limited room for maneuver, Rubalcaba will have to play his cards very intelligently if he is to be in any kind of position to win the general election.

If Zapatero is to remain as party secretary general, as well as in office until March 2012, much will depend on whether the federal committee's decision is seen as adding value to the political alternative represented by the Socialist Party for the country.

The Socialist Party will now have to stick to its timetable, aware that it cannot control all the possible scenarios that might emerge in the coming months. Some are linked to the economy, and others will depend on the strategies of other groups in Parliament, starting with the Popular Party's refusal to budge an inch now that it has gained such a strong foothold in the climb toward power.