Decision time for the Socialists

Defense Minister Carme Chacón announced on Thursday that she would not be running in the primaries convoked by the Socialist Party to elect a successor to secretary general José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who is stepping down as leader, and will not be running for a third term as prime minister in next year's general elections. Her decision is a curious one, not because she has decided to throw in the towel in the face of assorted machinations and pressures, something she has criticized, but because the primaries she refers to have not yet been called. Her decision merits comment also because Chacón, who has been preparing her candidacy in secret for several weeks, made several serious accusations about an alleged plot by party members who, with absolute transparency, have made clear that they prefer to elect a new leader via a congress.

The Socialist Party's federal committee meets on Saturday to decide whether to allow grassroots members to decide on a candidate, or whether to hold a congress that would also have to elect a secretary general. With Chacón's decision to step aside, the federal committee now faces the decision of which is the best course of action to avoid a defeat in next year's general elections along the lines of the electoral disaster that took place on May 22.

Chacón's supporters say that electing a candidate at a congress would greatly favor her rival, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, although for the moment the interior minister has yet to formally announce his candidacy. It would now seem that with Chacón out of the race, primaries will be held, albeit with a single candidate, who will be announced following the federal committee's meeting over the weekend.

After that, everything depends on whether Zapatero, in his capacity as secretary general, is able to get his way, and if those in favor of a congress agree to substitute this route with another that would allow for other candidates to come forward, thus initiating a much-needed debate within the party over its future.

In the event that this weekend sees the federal committee agree on a candidate to lead the party in next year's elections without the need for a vote, then a congress will still be needed to discuss the future of the party following its disastrous performance in the regional and municipal elections. That said, a congress might well simply end up revealing the extent of the in-fighting within the party, frightening off voters.

Even if a congress is held, others besides Rubalcaba may well come forward as candidates for secretary general on the basis that the elections are already lost, and that the real task is to rebuild the party the day after the polls.

Whatever happens, the Socialist Party's goal is to get over the crisis as soon as possible, to elect a candidate with the backing of the federal committee, and over the next 12 months to focus all its efforts on the party and government and on implementing the reforms begun a year ago.