Mexico reaches security, migration and trade agreement as Trump’s tariff deadline looms

Mexico is facing a crucial week for its economy. Thursday marks the end of the 90-day deadline that U.S. President Donald Trump gave the Mexican government to evaluate their trade relationship and define the tariffs that will remain in place between them. The Latin American country is the United States’ main trading partner; however, it has failed to contain the protectionist onslaught that Trump has launched globally. With some concessions, and anchored to the free trade agreement (USMCA), the Republican leader has imposed 25% tariffs on all products not covered by the agreement, 25% levies on automobiles, and 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper.

The tariff spat between the two countries began almost at the start of the Trump administration’s second term, in January of this year, when the U.S. president shook up bilateral relations by announcing new tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The tariff impositions began in March, on the argument that Mexico was not doing enough at the border to stem irregular migration flows or to prevent the trafficking of fentanyl into the United States. Since then, the two countries have maintained a tension that increases uncertainty for Mexico’s economic future.

The back-and-forth has essentially been between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Trump, who, within a series of deadlines — established by the U.S. president — have been on the phone to find a way to ease the tension. Sheinbaum has boasted of keeping a “cool head” and has deployed all the information at her disposal to prevent the U.S. president from moving forward with tariffs.

Trump, for his part, has nothing but praise for the first female president of Mexico and has admitted that while he is extremely tough on other countries, he has avoided direct confrontation and the harshest trade measures with Mexico. The complexities of an agreement with Mexico are somewhat different from those with other countries due to the problems and advantages of the border, the Republican acknowledged in July, after imposing the latest extension.

It’s only been in the last three months that the conversation between the two countries has taken a turn. In Mexico, there is now talk of an agreement that includes security, migration, and trade. Sheinbaum mentioned on Friday that a team from the Ministry of Economy, led by Minister Marcelo Ebrard, will travel to South Korea this week to meet with members of the Trump administration who are there for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, where they will finalize the last details of this alliance. As the deadline approaches, Mexico and the United States plan to seal a deal that, according to Sheinbaum, “is already well underway” and could end eight months of uncertainty.

Amid this back-and-forth, the elephant in the room is the USMCA. Mexico, the United States and Canada have strengthened North America as a powerful trading bloc over the past 30 years through free trade. It was Trump himself who, in 2018, proposed redesigning the agreement and called his partners to the table. Against all odds, the three countries managed to reach an agreement and set 2026 as the year in which they would review whether the changes had worked. With his eye on July of next year, Trump has toyed with the idea of breaking up the USMCA and designing bilateral agreements with each of the partners. The U.S. tariff war reinforces every day the possibility that the world’s largest economy will decide to go it alone.

Both Mexico and Canada have insisted that the agreement will remain three-way, given that its value lies in the strength of the trading bloc. “What I foresee is that we’re going to review the treaty. It will surely have some changes, but I don’t expect them to be substantial in terms of modifying the entire treaty or its main content,” Ebrard stated a few days ago. The three countries have already begun internal consultations among the productive sectors covered by the treaty. Each country is expected to announce the points it would like to renegotiate by the end of November. The USMCA has become an umbrella protecting trade between the three countries, while the rest of the world adjusts to a new commercial dynamic.

Sheinbaum is pushing for calm, but she’s also keeping a close eye on Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has clashed with Trump’s harsher side. Canada has also had its own tariff conditions since March for everything not included in the USMCA, most with fewer advantages than those for Mexico. Despite Carney’s commitment to conciliation with the White House, the response to his administration has been blunt: on Thursday, Trump indefinitely suspended talks with Canada. Faced with this rupture, Sheinbaum has opted to wait and see.

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