The tariff boomerang effect: How Trump’s move could hurt international tourism

The trade war launched by Donald Trump — through the widespread imposition of tariffs on the United States’ main trading partners in an effort to reduce the country’s large trade deficit and boost domestic economic activity — could have a negative impact on tourism in the world’s largest economy.

The U.S. was the third most-visited country in 2024, welcoming 72.3 million travelers, and ranked first in tourism-related revenue, earning some $194 billion, according to the latest data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).

While there’s no direct correlation, the imposition of tariffs, the retaliation by affected countries, and the broader economic fallout of this tariff war with key partners is fueling a growing backlash against the U.S. — one that could eventually translate into a tourism boycott. In February, when Trump first floated the idea of applying tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S., the number of Canadians crossing the border by car dropped by 24% compared to the same period in 2024, and U.S. carrier United Airlines also sharply reduced its flights from Canada.

This trend has yet to emerge globally, but it’s not far-fetched when considering the overlap between countries targeted by the new tariffs and those that send the most tourists to major U.S. destinations.

In 2024, the two largest sources of tourists to the U.S. were Canada, with 20.24 million visitors, and Mexico, with 16.98 million. Together, they accounted for more than half of all inbound travel.

Both countries are now facing new 25% tariffs on their exports to the U.S. as of April 2. The negative implications for their businesses are clear: companies will be forced to raise prices, cut profit margins, or both. In response, both governments may consider imposing similar countermeasures.

Aware of the critical role these two countries play in both trade and tourism, the U.S. government has made an exception: the new tariffs will not apply to goods covered under the USMCA trade agreement. However, this only partially softens the blow. Mexico’s powerful auto industry will still be hit hard, and around 50% of the country’s exports to the U.S. will be affected.

The U.K. ranks third, with 4.03 million tourists, making up 5.6% of the total. So far, the country has ruled out any commercial retaliation against the U.S., in part because it was one of the least affected, receiving only a 10% tariff on its exports. Brazil, the sixth-largest source of U.S. tourists in 2024 with 1.91 million visitors (2.64% of the total), is in a similar situation.

The steepest tariffs target countries whose tourist numbers grew the most in 2024. China, which ranked tenth with 1.62 million visitors (2.24% of the total), saw its exports slapped with a 34% tariff. This could significantly hinder a promising and fast-growing market of high-spending tourists who tend to stay longer than average. Chinese tourism to the U.S. surged by 50% in 2024 — the highest growth among the top 10 countries, according to WTTC — and had been expected to continue expanding rapidly.

India and China, both in the Asia-Pacific region, experienced similarly strong growth in U.S.-bound tourism last year — up 24.3% and 21.4%, respectively. But while outbound tourism from Europe had already rebounded to pre-Covid levels by the end of 2023 and even reached record highs in 2024, Asia’s recovery has been slower due to ongoing travel restrictions and a focus on promoting domestic tourism.

The final two countries in the top 10 — Germany and France — rank fifth and eighth respectively, with 1.99 million and 1.7 million travelers. Like Spain, both are now subject to a 20% tariff on their exports to the U.S.

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