Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric fails to boost Latino support for Harris, according to poll

With just over three weeks until the November 5 elections, Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has struggled to fully secure the support she needs from Latino voters, a key demographic in determining the election’s outcome. In contrast, her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, has managed to maintain the gains he made over the past four years with this community, particularly among men, despite his anti-immigrant rhetoric.

A New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris holding the support of 56% of Latino voters, while Trump garners 37%.

At first glance, this 19-point lead may seem significant. However, four years ago, Trump received a similar share — 36% of the Latino vote — while the Democratic candidate at the time, Joe Biden, captured 62%, giving Democrats a 26-point advantage. The gap was even larger in 2016, when Trump secured 28% of the Latino vote, and his rival, Hillary Clinton, received 68%, a difference of 39 percentage points.

These figures are concerning for the vice president’s campaign: the last time a Democratic candidate garnered less than 60% of Latino support was in 2004, when John Kerry faced a resounding defeat and George W. Bush was re-elected following the invasion of Iraq.

The poll indicates that Trump’s escalating attacks on immigrants, which have intensified as the election approaches, have not prompted Latino voters to rally around the Harris. Two-thirds of U.S.-born Latinos believe that the former president’s threats and insults are not aimed at them, and 51% of foreign-born and naturalized Latinos share this sentiment.

In fact, a significant portion of the Hispanic electorate supports some of Trump’s most stringent immigration measures. According to the poll, conducted among 902 individuals from September 29 to October 6, one-third favors constructing a wall along the border with Mexico and deporting immigrants who are in the United States illegally. While the majority of these supporters identify as Trump voters, 9% of those planning to vote for the Democrat also endorse such proposals.

The economy remains the primary concern for Latino voters, with three out of 10 identifying it as their top priority when deciding how to cast their ballots. Far behind are abortion rights, which rank as the main issue for 15% of this electorate, and immigration, important to 10%.

The gender gap observed in polls between Harris and Trump supporters is also evident among Latino voters. Among women, 62% support the vice president, while only 31% back the Republican. In contrast, support among men shifts, with 45% favoring Trump and 48% backing Harris.

Both parties have been actively courting Latino voters, the fastest-growing demographic in the United States, throughout this campaign. Just last week, both candidates participated in discussions with voters on the Spanish-language television network Univision.

However, the poll data suggest that the outcome remains uncertain, as voting trends among Hispanic voters could still shift. Nearly a quarter of respondents indicate they have not yet made a decision or are open to changing their minds, a proportion that is higher than the national average.

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition