A blue dot in an ocean of red: Why Omaha could break a possible tie between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

Jason Brown decided to give his own meaning to John Kennedy’s famous saying — “Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country” — after listening to Michelle Obama’s speech at the Democratic National Convention on television. The idea came to him when the former first lady recalled what the mother of Kamala Harris — who could become the first female U.S. president — used to tell her daughter: “Don’t sit around and complain about things: do something.”

Speaking from his home in an upper-middle-class neighborhood in Omaha, Nebraska, Brown said that after hearing those words, he went to the garage, found a can of blue paint, and, “by instinct,” spray-painted a thick blue dot on a campaign yard sign. The result of that eureka moment could make U.S. history: it could win Harris the presidential election against Donald Trump on November 5.

The district that includes Omaha is in southeastern Nebraska, a deeply Republican state that is also the unlikely birthplace of Harris’ vice-presidential candidate, the progressive Tim Walz. This district has voted Democratic in the presidential elections twice since 1992: in 2020, when Joe Biden won the White House, and in 2008, when Obama won. As a result, it is seen as a blue dot in an ocean of red. This difference also points to the broader tensions that define U.S. politics: the conflict between urban and rural America.

The first blue-dot yard sign — now “waiting to become a museum piece,” Browns joked — was the beginning of a blue measles that spread first through the neighborhood, which is predominantly Democratic, and then through the rest of Omaha. “At first we made 10, then another 10. When we asked for 100 more white rectangles, we thought we would have too many left over,” said Ruth Huebner-Brown, Jason Brown’s wife. On the day of EL PAÍS’ visit, the couple estimated that they had made “about 2,500 posters.” On Friday, Huebner-Brown said in a text message that they had distributed 7,800 locally, and that they were ready to make the leap beyond the city’s borders.

The success of the initiative is due to the exceptional nature of Nebraska: together with Maine, it is the only state in the United States that in presidential elections does not award all its electoral votes (five, in this case) to the winner, who takes only two. The other three are distributed among the different congressional districts into which the state is divided. In November, two are projected to go to the Republican Party. The third — District NE-2, which includes Omaha — is the only one that is contested.

And that is why, in this corner of America, there is a lot of debate about what could happen at the election. If Harris were to win in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — the three swing states that form the so-called Blue Wall —, and if Donald Trump, as the polls indicate, were to win most of the electoral votes of the Sun Belt — Arizona, Nevada and Georgia —, then Omaha could be the crucial blue dot that would give the Democrats victory. If, in that case, the city of Nebraska were to vote for Trump, the tiebreaker would be in Congress, by virtue of a bizarre system that favors the Republicans. The latest poll published by The New York Times and Sienna College gives Harris a considerable eight-point lead in the NE-2 district.

Anticipating what was coming, Nebraska Republicans tried in April to end the split electoral system, so that the winner in the state takes all the electoral votes. But the proposal did not have enough backing in the state capitol. The initiative was recently resurrected, with a plan that involved Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen calling a special session of the unicameral legislature to seek a qualified majority that would justify changing the rules. But the plan was thwarted by GOP senator Mike McDonnell — an Omaha firefighter and former Democrat — who said in a statement that he did not think it opportune to make such sweeping changes “43 days from Election Day.” Trump reacted to the news on his social network, Truth: “I LOVE OMAHA, and won it in 2016. Looks like I’ll have to do it again!!!”

Candidate Tony Vargas

The politician who is working hardest to undermine Trump’s ambitions is a 40-year-old Latino of Peruvian descent named Tony Vargas. A state senator from Nebraska, Vargas is running for Congress in Washington as a Democrat. This is the second time that the former school teacher — born and raised in New York — has run for office. In 2022, he lost by 5,856 votes to Republican Don Bacon, who is seeking reelection.

Vargas is convinced that this time will be different, and the polls — which he is leading by up to four points — seem to suggest he is right. “We have knocked on tens of thousands of doors, 10 times more than two years ago; we have increased the number of phone calls 15-fold; the number of volunteers has increased by 500%; and we have raised more money than any candidate in the history of this city,” Vargas told EL PAÍS in a café in Omaha.

If he succeeds, he will become the first Latino representative in Washington from a state where 15% of the population is Hispanic, a figure that is projected to reach 25% by 2040. “Bacon doesn’t care about the problems of our community, he’s just a weak and self-interested politician incapable of saying no to Trump,” said the Democratic candidate.

But, unfortunately for Vargas, the district he hopes to win extends beyond Omaha. After the 2020 census, it was redrawn to include a portion to the west of the city that votes Republican, a suburb where, instead of blue dots, yards display pro-Trump signs and messages waning that trespassers will be shot.

Asked if he is feeling under pressure because the future of the United States may be in his hands, Vargas replied: “My mother felt more pressure, she had to work several jobs to make ends meet. Democracy in this city and in the whole country is at stake, so I’m not going to complain if I have to get up every day at dawn to help out at home [he is the father of two children] and then campaign until night. It doesn’t worry me.”

The Republican Party’s campaign in District NE-2 is more discreet than Vargas’. This could also be seen in the party’s relationship with the international press. EL PAÍS visited the group’s headquarters in Omaha, but was told by a man in a MAGA hat to go back to where they had come from. Requests for an interview about the Republican campaign in Nebraska — made at the national, state and local levels of the conservative party — were also unsuccessful.

Meanwhile, the Browns have been continuing to make blue-dot yard signs to get the message out. When EL PAÍS visited, production was in full swing, with three volunteers helping to spray-paint the signs. A five-gallon can was cut in half and used as a template. Cars stopped in front of the house to pick up the campaign signs so quickly, there was barely enough time for them to dry in the late-summer sun. The suggested donation was $10.

Tim and Karen Conn, a married couple who live across the street, have also helped meet the growing demand. They are fans of Led Zeppelin and vintage cars and have set up their own blue-dot factory. Tim Conn, a bit of a handyman, has invented an original drying system reminiscent of the racks used to hang paintings in a museum storeroom. The Browns have put their lives on hold to devote themselves full-time to what they call “the Blue Dot Movement.” “Frankly, we can’t think of anything more important than this mission we’re on,” said Karen Conn.

And if such dedication does not help Harris win the White House, they hope at least that it will serve to “start a conversation.” “The electoral college is antiquated: it comes from a time when representatives from each territory had to go to Washington by horse-drawn carriage to communicate what their people had decided. That no longer makes sense,” said Ruth Huebner Brown (according to a Gallup poll, 60% of Americans support abolishing the electoral college, a change that would require a more than improbable amendment to the Constitution).

“In the Midwest, we are very proud of our origins,” added Jason Brown. “But Nebraska is not a very well-known state, except for [the billionaire] Warren Buffett and Bruce Springsteen’s album Nebraska. That is why I am doubly happy, because our blue dots have put Omaha on the map. The electoral map. Literally.”

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