Mounting cost of Iran war clouds Trump’s prospects ahead of the midterms
A congressional report estimates that spending had approached $40 billion by August, while the Pentagon’s inspector general has acknowledged shortages in munitions stockpiles
The cost of the U.S. war against Iran is soaring, complicating Donald Trump’s prospects just seven weeks before November’s midterm elections. According to congressional figures, the United States has already spent nearly $40 billion. The rapid consumption of critical munitions is depleting the Pentagon’s stockpiles, especially missile interceptors. According to the congressional report, the consequences are likely to feed inflation in the United States well into next year.
President Donald Trump continues to insist, despite evidence to the contrary, that his main objective in the conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, has been achieved, that the war has been won and that it will be over after the midterm elections, in which control of both chambers of Congress is at stake. But there is little sign that the war will end anytime soon. Quite the opposite. In recent exchanges of fire, Iran has demonstrated greater accuracy and intensity, perhaps aided, according to a CNN analysis, by Russian satellite support. Its Houthi allies in Yemen are threatening to close a second key chokepoint for oil transport, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Red Sea.
A report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) paints an equally troubling picture for the White House regarding the war that the United States and Israel launched on February 28, with the stated aim of forcing regime change and preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. According to the CBO’s estimates, the direct cost to the United States had exceeded $38.1 billion by August 1. Each additional month of fighting is expected to add between $2 billion and $3 billion, a figure that could rise during periods of intense combat. Last spring, the Pentagon requested an emergency appropriation of $90 billion, still awaiting congressional approval, of which roughly $70 billion would go toward war-related expenses, among other items.
More than half of the war’s cost so far, roughly $21.7 billion, has gone toward replenishing munitions, including $13.1 billion worth of missile interceptors, according to congressional estimates. The CBO calculates that U.S. forces have depleted between one-half and two-thirds of their stockpiles of these costly weapons, including Patriot, THAAD, Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors, since June 2025.
The situation would be particularly alarming if another conflict were to erupt elsewhere in the world, for example between China and Taiwan, especially given the long production timelines for such weapons. Restoring inventories to their pre-June 2025 levels could take five years or more. Each Patriot interceptor costs about $4 million. Its manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, produced 620 units in 2025 and is seeking to accelerate output to 2,000 a year.
Shift in Iran’s strategy
Iran is well aware of this U.S. vulnerability and appears to have adjusted its strategy accordingly. In its most recent attacks, Tehran has launched large volleys of projectiles, forcing the United States to expend more interceptors than it would ideally like in response. Last week alone, during the latest major exchange between the two adversaries, Iran fired more than 20 missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan. Some struck the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, though most were intercepted.
To repel the attack, U.S. forces reportedly had to fire dozens of interceptors. According to The Wall Street Journal, that included around a dozen THAAD missiles and between 60 and 70 Patriots. In just a few hours, the United States consumed roughly one-fifth of the 300 Patriot interceptors that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says Ukraine needs to defend the country through the winter.
In a separate report released alongside the CBO’s assessment, the Pentagon’s inspector general offered Congress its first official review of the war. The document concludes that the fighting has caused “strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply.” The document calls on the Department of Defense to “streamline procurement processes and production lead times, and to stockpile critical materials, components, and selected munitions to respond rapidly to a contingency.”
The inspector general’s analysis also warns that Iranian strikes have damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings and facilities at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan. Dozens of aircraft have been damaged or destroyed in those attacks.
Both Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have denied that U.S. arsenals are facing munitions shortages. Two weeks ago, Trump claimed on his social media platform Truth Social that the United States has a “virtually unlimited” supply of missiles, and on Monday, he returned to the platform to argue that more missiles are being produced and delivered than ever before. “A primary focus of this production has been Patriots, THAAD Systems, Tomahawks, and other Standard Missile Systems, of which we already have large numbers in stock,” he wrote.
In its report this week, the CBO notes that its cost estimates may not be fully precise because the Pentagon failed to respond to its requests for information, leaving the agency to rely on government databases and publicly available information. It also warns that the Defense Department’s lack of cooperation prevented it from calculating the cost of damage to military bases across the Middle East.
Meanwhile, those costs are increasingly being felt by ordinary Americans, putting the White House on the defensive and fueling voter discontent as gasoline prices surge, driving up the cost of everything from transport to household bills. The congressional analysis forecasts that the conflict will add half a percentage point to inflation in the first quarter of 2027, owing to elevated energy prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential disruption of Red Sea shipping. It also estimates that the crisis has contributed to higher borrowing costs. According to the CBO, the war’s effects have added 0.2 percentage points to short-term interest rates relative to prewar expectations.
Trump, eager to bring an end to a deeply unpopular conflict that threatens Republican control of Congress in November, continues to insist that developments in the Persian Gulf have nothing to do with rising oil and fuel prices. Throughout the week, he has instead blamed Ukraine and its attacks on Russian refineries. “The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran,” he said on Monday.
Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition