Arrests of Cubans skyrocket under Trump, while green card approvals plummet
An analysis by the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank based in Washington, finds that approvals for permanent residency for Cubans fell 99.8% last year
The number of green cards granted in the United States has plummeted under the Trump administration. According to an analysis by the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank based in Washington, the figure has fallen to half is previous level, with the drop disproportionately affecting Cubans, asylum seekers, and refugees. The study notes that the Trump administration has virtually halted the approval of permanent residency for Cubans, a group historically favored by U.S. immigration policies. At the same time, arrests of these individuals by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have skyrocketed.
According to the study, green card approvals for Cubans — which exceeded 10,000 in October 2024 — plummeted to just a few dozen by the end of last year, a 99.8% drop, while apprehensions rose from fewer than 200 to more than 1,000 per month during the same period, a 463% increase. David Bier, Cato’s immigration director, told EL PAÍS that the slowdown in processing residency applications “is part of a broader strategy to deport or otherwise force immigrants to leave the United States.”
In South Florida, home to the largest Cuban community in the country, many who once would have qualified under the Cuban Adjustment Act — which allows Cubans to apply for residency after one year in the United States — now find themselves in limbo, with their cases stalled and no clear path to regularization.
The Cuban vote was key to the Republican shift in Miami‑Dade County in the 2024 presidential election, but Trump’s immigration policy has eroded some of the president’s support. Although most Cuban Americans continue to back Trump’s hard‑line stance toward Cuba, a majority opposes the deportation of Cubans with no criminal record and supports legal migration pathways, according to recent polls.
The Cato report also notes that family‑based green‑card approvals fell by 54% between July 2025 and January 2026, and that approvals for refugees dropped by 99%, despite an increase in applications. The analysis documents cases of spouses of U.S. citizens whose residency applications were pending and who were detained when their status expired while they awaited a decision. It also cites the case of a Cuban man who entered legally in 2024 and was detained in 2026 despite having a residency application in process, as well as other cases involving asylum seekers and individuals with parole or temporary status who have been arrested.
The Trump administration, which has promised to carry out the largest deportation campaign in U.S. history, has implemented a series of measures to restrict legal immigration. Late last year, it suspended all immigration processing — including applications for citizenship, residency, and asylum — for citizens of a growing list of countries that now includes Cuba and Venezuela. Some estimates suggest that one million Cubans could be affected by the measure.
Trump has also ended temporary protected status and humanitarian programs that allowed hundreds of thousands to live and work legally in the country for up to two years, and revoked their work permits. Cubans who entered through a Biden-era program known as CHNV can, in theory, apply for permanent residency after one year and one day in the country under the Cuban Adjustment Act. However, many have been unable to move forward with that process and, faced with uncertainty, have opted to apply for asylum as an alternative — yet even then, they have been detained despite having pending applications. The administration has restricted access to asylum, leading to a significant drop in approvals. The administration has restricted access to asylum, and there has been a significant drop in approvals.
Authorities have arrested people during their hearings in immigration courts, as well as in large‑scale operations with local police on highways and at worksites. Trump has ordered mass deployments of immigration agents in Democrat‑led cities, resulting in at least three deaths, dozens of injuries, and thousands of arrests. These policies have led to a cascade of lawsuits in federal courts.
When asked by EL PAÍS about the Cato study, a spokesperson for the Department of Homeland Security said in an email that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) “is ensuring that all foreign nationals from high-risk countries are subjected to the highest possible levels of verification and screening.”
“USCIS is conducting a comprehensive review of any person, from any location, who poses a threat to the United States, including those identified in the president’s most recent proclamation to restore order and the rule of law to our immigration system,” said the spokesperson.
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