Chapter 13: How Trump radicalizes debate to sway opinion

When political scientist Joseph P. Overton died in 2003, Donald Trump was about to make his debut as a television star on The Apprentice. His leap into politics was still more than a decade away, but when it finally happened, his communication strategy put a central spotlight on an idea developed by Overton in the 1990s: the Overton Window.

According to the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, where Overton served as vice president, the concept is a model that explains how ideas can change in societies over time and influence policy. The window represents the space in which proposals are considered acceptable and legitimate, so they do not cause alarm. However, this space is not fixed; it can shrink or expand over time depending on the debates and issues introduced into public discourse.

Since entering politics, Trump has understood that to implement unconventional measures, it is important to radicalize popular debate with proposals and statements that shock. This initial exaggeration is the first step before gradually convincing the public. If he ultimately executes only part of what he proposes, the negative impact is greatly reduced — or can even cause for relief.

“I will build a wall, and I’ll have Mexico pay for it.” That was one of Trump’s first experiments to expand the Overton Window in 2016. He pushed the immigration debate to such extremes that it was hardly surprising when he entered the White House banning citizens from several Muslim-majority countries or when 451 miles (727 kilometers) of wall were constructed in his first four years (with the U.S. ultimately paying for the entire project).

In his second term, Trump has once again used the Overton Window to shape public debate before taking economic, foreign policy, domestic, and homeland security measures. He does this through jokes and gaffes, by approving and then halting measures, with offhand comments in official meetings, and even by exploiting disinformation. In this new chapter of the Trump Observatory, we analyze some of the most notable cases.

Tariffs and the stock market

On April 2, 2025, Trump declared “Liberation Day” after signing an executive order that increased tariffs on imports from around the world. The increases were particularly steep for products from strategic trade partners such as China, which he targeted with a 125% rate. The announcement triggered a frantic stock market sell-off that wiped out, in less than a week, all the gains made over the past year.

Trump eventually backtracked. He paused the implementation of the new tariffs and reached specific agreements with key partners such as China, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. In the end, he did implement one of the largest tariff increases in history, but given the impact of the initial proposal, the markets were actually relieved. They closed the year near all-time highs. Whether this was a premeditated strategy or sheer improvisation will never be known.

Whitewashing deportations

According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 605,000 people have been deported from the U.S. since January 20, 2025. To counter the impact of this measure, Trump has sought to expand the Overton Window in two different ways. First, he declared himself willing to deport even U.S. citizens — a statement captured on an open microphone when he met with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House. While this has not happened, it now creates the impression that his measures are not as extreme as they could be.

Furthermore, he has significantly increased his attacks on immigrants: during the campaign, he said they “poison” the blood of the country, accused them of eating pets, and called them “animals.” As president, he referred to Somali immigrants as “garbage.”

Trump 2028

According to the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, no person may be elected president more than twice. No one had challenged this mandate — until Trump returned to the White House. Since then, he has brought the topic into the public agenda in various ways, both explicitly and implicitly, seeking to normalize the debate.

In March, he told the media that he was not ruling out running again and hinted that there might be “methods” to make it happen. A month later, he put a cap with the slogan “Trump 2028” on sale on his website. In October, he placed several of these caps on the desk in the Oval Office when he met with Democratic Party leaders in Congress. The cap can also be found in a room of the presidential residence where he keeps merchandise and shows it to visiting international leaders. With the president of Azerbaijan, he even joked about running again.

Militarization of cities

On the official page for the Overton Window concept, the Mackinac Center notes that it reflects societal beliefs and is therefore susceptible to manipulation through lies and disinformation. One of the most notable examples linked to the Trump administration is the message that crime has increased in the U.S., which has been used to target immigrants and militarize several cities, even though the data actually show a decline in thefts and murders.

In early September, after the National Guard had already been deployed to Washington and Los Angeles, MAGA activists on social media began circulating a video of a young woman’s murder on a bus in Charlotte, North Carolina. Trump also shared it and used the opportunity to promote a speech defending militarization — a highly unpopular measure. So far, the National Guard has been deployed in six cities.

Rolling back rights

Just as public opinion can be influenced to expand the Overton Window and push through radical measures, it can also be manipulated to shrink it and roll back policies already in place. That is what Trump has sought to do with equality policies. The goal of his rhetoric and several of his actions has been to frame these policies as discriminatory against the white majority in the U.S., particularly men. In doing so, he aims to reduce the level of acceptance for affirmative action or similar measures, taking the first step toward their elimination.

To find out more:

Articles:

• Laura Marsh: The Flaws of the Overton Window Theory
• Anthony L. Fisher: Trump’s Gaza ‘takeover’ comments are meant to shatter the Overton Window
• Nate Silver: Are we entering a Conservative Golden Age?

Videos:

• Mackinac Center for Public Policy: A brief explanation of the Overton Window
• Voxdotcom: How Trump makes extreme things look normal
• Mariano Sigman: Trump and the Overton Window

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition