Trump toys with the idea of running for a third term in 2028, despite it being unconstitutional

A new item has joined the dozens of products on the official merchandise website of U.S. President Donald Trump: for $50, plus tax and shipping, anyone can now purchase his signature red baseball cap, this time featuring a new embroidered slogan: “Trump 2028.” Whether a nod to his light-hearted remarks about a third term or a serious declaration of intent, the release comes as Trump marks his first 100 days back in the White House.

It began as a joke, a provocation of sorts. Shortly after taking office, the Republican leader floated the idea of running for re-election — something the U.S. Constitution clearly and categorically prohibits.

At a rally in Nevada in January, just days after returning to office, he told supporters that it would be “the greatest honor of my life to serve not once, but twice or three times or four times”

At the time, many dismissed the comment as simply a joke for his supporters amid polls that showed him enjoying higher approval ratings than at any point during his first term.

But the idea didn’t end there. Since then, the president has continued to bring up the idea. In an interview with Time magazine last Tuesday, he said: “All I can say is this, I am being inundated with requests. I’m doing a good job.” He added: “There are some loopholes that have been discussed that are well known. But I don’t believe in loopholes. I don’t believe in using loopholes.”

A third Trump term — starting when he would be 82 years old and ending at 86 — would be yet another challenge to constitutional norms, joining a long list of threats that have emerged during the Republican administration’s first 100 days: from calls to end birthright citizenship to attacks on the separation of powers, including the judiciary. Just last Friday, the FBI arrested a judge in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, accusing her of obstructing an operation to detain a Mexican immigrant — another flashpoint in the Trump administration’s escalating clashes with the courts.

At first glance, the idea of a third term seems more like a smokescreen than a genuine political plan, say analysts. While citizens and journalists argue over the possibility, other, thornier issues are left unaddressed, such as the uncertain future of tariff negotiations, potential concessions to end the war in Ukraine, and the persistent court challenges blocking the administration’s drastic — and cruel, according to its victims — immigration policies.

According to prestigious pollster Frank Luntz, this is a way to avoid losing relevance — a risk that hangs over U.S. presidents in their second term, as the Constitution bars them from seeking re-election. From the moment they are sworn in, they face a fixed deadline to leave office. They become what is known as a “lame duck” president — a leader with limited ability to influence either their international counterparts or lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

“He knows he can’t run for a third term and that [toying with the idea] is just a political distraction, but it’s something that galvanizes people, that galvanizes his base. He doesn’t want to be a lame duck, so he’s resorting to this,” Luntz notes during an interview at his Washington home. “It’s an attempt to ensure he stays relevant for the four years he’s going to be president. And no one in our history has done that until he came along.”

Newt Gingrich, former Republican Speaker of the House, added another layer in a statement to NBC: as long as talk about Trump and a possible third term continues, no other potential contender will want to step forward and risk alienating core Republican voters. “He’s not going to run,” he said. But, he added: “Don’t underestimate the degree to which he believes any Trump-centered noise is good, because it starves his opponents.”

In short, Trump is guaranteed to remain free of challengers for much, if not all, of his term: within the Republican Party, no one would dare contest the nomination if there’s even a hint that he intends to continue.

Both Luntz and Gingrich caution against dismissing the president’s comments as mere bluster. “Every time we’ve underestimated him, we’ve paid the price,” Luntz notes. “The U.S. hasn’t experienced a phenomenon like Donald Trump since Andrew Jackson was elected president in 1828. You have to go back 200 years to see political change and a level of populism similar to the one that has now shaken our democracy to its roots.”

After all, Trump’s determination to cling to power has already been evident — even at the cost of embracing theories of dubious constitutional legality — as shown when he pressured his then-vice president Mike Pence not to certify Joe Biden’s 2020 electoral victory.

“Don’t underestimate Donald Trump’s willingness not only to socialize the unthinkable in American politics, but actually to act on it,” journalist Susan Glasser, author of a new book documenting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rise, told CNN.

In March, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he was not “joking” when he said he was considering ways to serve a third term after the 2028 election. The law would require him to leave the White House by noon on January 20, 2029. “There are methods to do it,” he said cryptically.

The idea, plainly, seems absurd. And legally, it is impossible. The U.S. Constitution is clear. The 22nd Amendment, passed in 1951 after Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s unprecedented four-term presidency, states: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” In principle, there is no room for ambiguity or loopholes.

How, then, would Trump plan to bypass this? The president has so far declined to explain what methods he believes could allow him to run for a third term.

His former strategist and confidant, Steve Bannon, has been somewhat more forthcoming. On a talk show two weeks ago, Bannon said he was convinced that Trump would run for a third term and be sworn in again in 2029. “President Trump is going to run for a third term, and President Trump is going to be elected again on the afternoon of January 20th of 2029. He’s going to be president of the United States,” Bannon told television host Bill Maher, claiming that “a team of people” was already working on exploring possible avenues.

One option, Bannon suggested, would be to amend the Constitution — but this would be an almost impossible feat. Amending the Constitution requires a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate, a scenario that is currently unimaginable. Alternatively, a constitutional convention would need the support of at least 38 states — three-quarters of the country — another goal that seems unattainable.

Another theory circulating in MAGA circles suggests that the current vice president, J.D. Vance, or another close Trump ally, could run for president, win, and then appoint Trump as vice president. After taking office, that person would resign, making Trump president once more. However, this plan is flatly prohibited by the 12th Amendment, which states that “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President.” Since Trump would be ineligible for another presidential term, he cannot legally serve as vice president either.

For now, there appears to be little public appetite for Trump remaining in office beyond his current term. His approval ratings have plummeted during his first 100 days. A series of polls released this past weekend show a sharp decline in support, driven by distrust of his tariff policies, his economic management, his increasingly authoritarian style, and his ties to the world’s richest man, Elon Musk. While Trump enjoyed approval ratings above 50% at his inauguration, they now hover between 39% and 44%, with a majority believing he has gone “too far” in his efforts to expand presidential powers.

According to a poll conducted by Ipsos and Reuters, fewer than a quarter of Americans support Trump remaining in the White House for another term, while 75% oppose the idea. Even among Republicans, a majority — 53% — believe he should not attempt to stay.

That seems to matter very little to the president. On his merchandise website, the “Trump 2028” cap remains one of the first products featured. His son Eric has already been photographed wearing one. Whether a bold statement of intent or a big joke, it is, in any case, another way to make money.

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition