Trump’s iron fist crushes number of daily illegal migrant crossings

Donald Trump’s offensive against migrants seems to be yielding results. Administration officials have been on a triumphal tour of conservative television networks for a couple of days to boast about a sharp drop in irregular border crossings from Mexico. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem has focused on one fact: the detention of only 200 people on Saturday, February 22, along the entire border with Mexico. “That’s the lowest single apprehension day in over 15 years,” Noem said on social media. In contrast, Noem claimed, during the Joe Biden era up to “fifteen, sixteen thousand” encounters were recorded in a single day.

“To have that kind of drop under President Trump is because of a change of policy. It’s because of telling the world to stay away, if you want to come to this country illegally you will be stopped, because America comes first,” Noem said Monday night on Sean Hannity’s show on Fox News. The secretary has personally taken charge of the campaign that the department launched last week to discourage those seeking to migrate to the United States.

“If you are a criminal alien considering entering America illegally: Don’t even think about it. If you come here and break our laws, we will hunt you down. Criminals are not welcome in the United States,” Noem says in an official DHS video advertisement. As she speaks, footage shows Donald Trump signing executive orders and federal agents arresting migrants, mostly Black and Latino. “If you try to enter illegally, you will be caught. You will be removed and you will never return,” she adds in a version of the ad for international release.

A Homeland Security spokesman says this message “has been received” by the rest of the world, hence the drop in illegal crossings along the border that was the scene of a migration crisis during the previous administration. Republicans believe that part of the decrease is due to the cancellation of the CBP One application, through which federal officials could track asylum applications initiated by immigrants outside the country at eight points along the border. The Trump administration cancelled all open processes on the application on the day of his inauguration, ending the dream of thousands of people hoping to legally migrate to the United States.

Despite the administration’s triumphalist tone, there is still no official data showing the effect of Trumpism on the migration phenomenon. Irregular crossings had been on the decline for 13 months by the final days of the Biden era, the former president leaving the White House on January 20. That month, 61,400 people were apprehended, according to the most recent data provided by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

Analysts believe the drop is due to anticipation of the measures Trump promised to implement upon his inauguration. The monthly total for the start of 2025 represents a drastic 40% decline compared to November and December, when 94,000 and 96,000 arrests were recorded. Those months were the only ones below 100,000 encounters since February 2021, and the lowest of the Democratic president’s administration.

The Trump administration has provided some clues as to what to expect from its first month of crackdown on immigration. Federal authorities have stated, in a series of leaks to conservative media, that the average number of apprehensions per day in February was around 359. This would put the monthly total at just over 10,000, a figure not seen in decades.

To find the month with the fewest border crossings in recent history (not counting during the Covid pandemic), you have to go back to Trump’s first term. In April 2017, his third full month in the White House, 15,700 encounters were recorded.

There are other indicators of the slowdown in migration flows. Another can be found at the Darién Gap, the dangerous jungle pass that divides Colombia from Panama, a point on the route for thousands of people who undertake the journey north from South America. Only 2,200 people passed through there in January, about 72 a day, one of the lowest figures in four years, according to the Panamanian government. In August 2023, however, 85,000 citizens from Venezuela, Haiti, Ecuador, and Colombia, among other nations, passed through there.

While the crossing figures are generating euphoria within the administration, the deportation statistics, another of the Republican government’s priorities, continue to provoke frustration. Some 37,660 people were repatriated in the first month of Trump’s second term, according to the DHS. Those in charge of the operation have been careful to communicate that the number will rise in the coming months. The figure is far from the monthly average of 57,000 deportations during Biden’s final year. The annoyance with the results led to a series of adjustments within Noem’s team, which removed the head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to speed up the machinery of expulsions.

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