New Orleans attack highlights the power of the ISIS brand to spread terror in the West

The black flag of the Islamic State (ISIS) has once again been linked to a brutal attack in the United States. Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old Texan, killed at least 14 people with his vehicle and firearm during New Year’s Eve celebrations in New Orleans. Hours later, President Joe Biden stated that the attack was “inspired by ISIS.”

The jihadist group’s flag, found on the van Jabbar used to plow into the crowd, is not the only connection linking him to the terror organization rooted in Syria and Iraq. Investigators have also uncovered videos on social media in which Jabbar swore allegiance to ISIS. Sources close to the investigation, speaking to local press, suggest that Jabbar’s declaration of loyalty to the group may have been an attempt to escape his troubled personal life. He had three children, two ex-wives, and reportedly planned to gather his family for a “celebration” with the intention of killing them.

This allegiance, the process of radicalization, and the method chosen for the attack serve as clear evidence of the enduring influence ISIS holds as a catalyst for spreading terror in the West, even more than five years after the fall of its caliphate.

ISIS’ shadow over terrorist acts in the United States is not new, nor is Jabbar’s modus operandi. On October 31, 2017, 29-year-old Uzbek Sayfullo Saipov killed eight people by driving a van down a bicycle path next to the Hudson River in New York. Once again, authorities discovered the ISIS flag on the vehicle. While no direct operational link to the group was found, the investigation revealed that Saipov had radicalized independently, largely through videos of the group’s first leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Like the early investigations in New Orleans suggest, Saipov’s attack was inspired by the potent global jihadist brand that ISIS continues to represent today.

According to an analysis by the American think tank The Soufan Center, led by terrorism expert Colin P. Clarke, the attack in Louisiana was celebrated in several ISIS supporter chat rooms, where Jabbar was praised for his approach. After running over dozens of people, he opened fire on the police in what appeared to be a suicidal final act until he was shot down, a common ending for ISIS terrorists.

Jabbar’s profile aligns with that of many Western terrorists who have carried out attacks under the ISIS banner in recent years, though most of them were younger. He was an unstable individual with a minor criminal record, struggling with financial and family issues. After converting to Islam, he became radicalized and ultimately turned to violence.

Express recruits

It is at the intersection of extremism and action, where individuals like Jabbar cross the line from radicalization to committing murder, that ISIS has served as both fuel and detonator. Firstly, the group provides justification for such acts through its propaganda, framing them as part of its campaign of indiscriminate terror against those it deems infidels. And secondly, the psychological impact of a mass murder carried out in the name of the most ruthless and notorious group amplifies its effect on public opinion.

Although the caliphate, which was central to ISIS’s recruitment and fundraising efforts, was dismantled more than five years ago, the group remains active, with approximately 2,500 fighters spread across Syria and Iraq. It also continues to expand through regional branches, including the Afghan faction, which was behind the deaths of more than 130 people in Moscow last March, and the Somali branch.

Jihadist terrorism remains one of Washington’s primary threats. In recent assessments, the FBI has repeatedly stated that it is conducting around 1,000 investigations related to ISIS. In a statement released in 2022, the agency’s director, Christopher Wray, said: “ISIS and its supporters continue to aggressively promote its hate-based rhetoric and attract like-minded violent extremists with a willingness to conduct attacks against the United States.”

Only a few attacks that have shaken the West were directly organized by ISIS in Mesopotamia, such as the attacks in Paris (November 2015) and Brussels (March 2016). Most acts are carried out under the ISIS banner have been perpetrated by individuals inspired by its propaganda. These individuals often act alone or with a small cell of co-religionists. This widespread appeal has been a key factor in the success of the group’s terror campaigns.

With Syria’s borders sealed, preventing the expansion of the caliphate, ISIS has managed to continue spreading its message through its propaganda networks: its followers did not need to travel to conflict zones; they could remain in their own communities and carry out attacks with whatever weapons were available to them.

This has sparked a copycat effect. The brutal truck attack in Nice in July 2016, which claimed 86 lives, was followed by attacks in Berlin, London, Barcelona, Stockholm, and New York in the years that followed. All were carried out using vehicles as weapons, inspired by ISIS terror. An analysis published by The Guardian last November warned of a rise in online messages on Rocket.Chat, a platform popular among jihadist supporters, discussing attacks during holidays such as Thanksgiving and Christmas. The impact of such brutality is amplified when the intended victims are enjoying a moment of celebration. This was the case in New Orleans, just as it was in Berlin nine years ago and in New York during Halloween 2017.

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