‘Ally-enemy structure’ on Musk’s X is driving polarization

Elon Musk’s rise to head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the U.S. following Donald Trump’s victory is no coincidence, nor is it solely the result of his estimated $200 million financial contribution to the Republican candidate’s campaign. Musk has provided populism with a powerful tool: the social network X.

A new study conducted in nine countries reveals that X has become a platform for polarization. The research highlights that this is exploited by both left-wing and right-wing users to marginalize opponents, dissenters, or moderates, treating them as “enemies.” As a result, many users have started to leave the platform, seeking alternatives like Threads and Bluesky.

The study, published in Nature Communications and led by the City St. George’s School of Science & Technology at the University of London in collaboration with the Alan Turing Institute, analyzed 375 million interactions on X over one day in September 2022. It focused on political communication in nine countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The conclusion is common across all the nations analyzed: “We find that there is a common ally-enemy structure in how members classified as part of the political left and right interact with each other.”

The mechanism driving this phenomenon goes beyond simply sharing or disliking messages; it is driven primarily by the toxicity of the content itself. “Out-group interactions, defined by the network, are more toxic than in-group interactions,” the study states, noting that political discussions are far more toxic than discussions on other topics.

In this way, the authors broaden the scope of harm caused by the platform, which many studies limit to “filter bubbles” or “echo chambers,” where users are exposed only to content that aligns with their existing biases. According to the researchers, the effects are more significant because X facilitates communication between groups with differing ideologies, but this communication is often toxic. “Psychological models suggest that this could induce a reinforcing cycle which may worsen interactional polarization over time,” the study acknowledges.

The problem driven by what is known as “affective polarization,” which the study defines as “the tendency to dislike one’s partisan opponents.”

For Andrea Baronchelli, a mathematics professor at City St. George’s and the lead researcher on the study, the consistent finding across all nine countries is critical: “Our research reveals a key attraction of large platforms like X [formerly Twitter]: the opportunity to engage in toxic exchanges with political opponents, as opposed to smaller platforms that simply allow conversations between like-minded users. This work confirms that the trend extends across all countries, suggesting a society in which the other is seen only as an opponent and listening is reserved for [like-minded] allies.”

The situation, Baronchelli warns, may worsen — though it will be difficult to track due to the data access restrictions Musk imposed after acquiring the platform. “We no longer have access to the high-quality data necessary to study these issues,” he explains. “This lack of transparency is a significant democratic concern and poses a challenge if we want to improve the quality of political communication online.”

This restriction is one of the limitations acknowledged by the authors of the study. The research was limited to a single day and nine countries within a specific context, so it does not capture the trajectory of political discourse over time, nor is it applicable to countries outside this sample.

However, Baronchelli says that his team remains committed to “continuing to study broader impacts” due to the significant risks posed to democratic life by platforms like X.

The study challenges the view that social media simply reflects an existing societal divide, instead arguing that it actively exacerbates it, with potentially severe consequences: “Severe polarization can stifle debate, drive animosity between groups, and may result in democratic backsliding or violence.”

X exodus and rise of alternative networks

One reason for the growing exodus from X is the warning issued by the European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, Thierry Breton, who cautioned the platform against using it to spread disinformation and illegal content related to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Breton reminded Musk that X must comply with the European Digital Services Act, which mandates content moderation obligations. The Brazilian government echoed these concerns, even temporarily suspending the platform.

In addition to government action, several users, such as The Guardian, and La Vanguardia, are abandoning Elon Musk’s network or turning to alternative platforms like Threads and Bluesky for their social media interactions.

Prominent figures, including actress Jamie Lee Curtis, have also joined the growing list of X dropouts. “God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change. Courage to change the things I can. And the wisdom to know the difference,” Curtis posted on Instagram, where she announced her departure from X.

The Berlin International Film Festival (Berlinale) has also announced that it will cease its use of X by the end of the year. “The Berlinale has decided to say goodbye to X on Dec 31, 2024. Thank you for following us here all these years. Stay connected with all things Berlinale on Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube, and our website. See you there!” the organization posted.

In the meantime, alternatives to X are experiencing strong user growth. Bluesky, founded by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, claims to have surpassed 14 million users, with nearly 10% of them joining after Trump’s victory, primarily from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.

“We’re seeing increased activity levels across all different forms of engagement,” Emily Liu, a company spokeswoman, told The New York Times. in an email. New or newly active users on the platform include celebrities such as rapper Flavor Flav, author John Green, as well as political figures and media personalities. “Hello less hateful world,” Mark Cuban, the billionaire and Kamala Harris supporter, posted on Tuesday.

Threads, the platform created by Meta to compete with X, has reported reaching 275 million monthly active users this month.

No spokesperson or representative for X has responded to this newspaper’s request for comment on the study published in Nature Communications.

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