Sheinbaum’s approval ratings drop seven points after Sinaloa and Chihuahua crises

Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is going through her most delicate moment just as she reaches a year and a half in office. Faced with multiple open fronts, the president is showing signs of wear, with a seven-point drop in approval since last March. It is the steepest fall so far in her term, although approval ratings remain high at 68%, according to an Enkoll poll conducted for EL PAÍS and W Radio. To the crisis triggered by the indictment of the governor of Sinaloa, along with nine other senior officials accused by a New York prosecutor of collaborating with drug traffickers, is added a worrying economic weakness that threatens the viability of social policies—a flagship of the leftist Morena government. Insecurity, corruption and the economy are the president’s main shortcomings and the principal concern of Mexicans, with rates slightly up since the last poll in early March.

The historic U.S. indictment against the Sinaloa governor, Rubén Rocha—the first ever against a sitting governor—also had a precursor that accelerated pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who counts Mexico as one of his favorite targets. At the end of April, an accident in the Sierra Madre of Chihuahua, near the border, revealed that two CIA agents who died in the crash had been carrying out joint operations with the state attorney general’s office—specifically, the dismantling of a huge drug lab. The incident greatly strained the political climate both inside and outside Mexico.

Sheinbaum’s defensive strategy has been to raise the shield of sovereignty against threats from the U.S., which often flirts with the idea of direct intervention under the pretext of its particular and aggressive war on drug trafficking across the region. The Mexican president stepped up her rhetoric both against the governor of the northern state, Maru Campos, and against U.S. authorities for not having the proper authorization for this type of operation. Like a snowball, events gathered momentum. Just 10 days later came the blow against Rocha and part of his team, accused of working for the Sinaloa Cartel and facilitating its business in exchange for multimillion-dollar bribes.

For 62% of those surveyed, the accusations against Governor Rocha are credible. The charges include, for example, the involvement of one faction, Los Chapitos, in the 2021 state elections—threatening and kidnapping political rivals to favor Rocha’s victory. On the motivations behind the indictment, 45% say it is “real evidence of links to organized crime groups,” while 36% believe it is more about “political interests or U.S. interference in Mexico.” The Department of Justice has sought the arrest and extradition of the 10 indicted politicians. Two of them—the former security secretary and the former finance secretary—have already surrendered voluntarily to U.S. authorities.

After an initial defensive reaction from the Mexican government, demanding evidence to gain space and time to maneuver, Rocha submitted his temporary resignation from office, opening the door to an investigation by Mexican authorities. This past weekend Rocha had his first hearing before the Attorney General’s Office (FGR). A majority of respondents (63%) favor Mexican authorities conducting the investigation, although nearly the same proportion agree he should be extradited to the United States. The customary distrust of the justice system is evident: almost half of those surveyed are not optimistic that the FGR will carry out “an adequate investigation of the case.” Only 24% believe all those implicated will be investigated and punished.

Bilateral relations have escalated to a new, more critical phase with shrinking room for maneuver for Mexico. After the judicial blow, a series of political statements followed that suggest this may be only the prelude to a more aggressive U.S. campaign against ties between politics and organized crime. Despite the escalation, a majority of respondents trust the way the president is handling Trump’s moves.

Amid debate over the level of U.S. agency involvement in the fight against drug trafficking—both the CIA and the DEA—rejection has risen to 65% for those agencies conducting operations on Mexican soil. At the same time, approval has also increased (74%) for greater cooperation in intelligence and training, the approach both governments have publicly promoted. Caught in that crossfire is the governor of Chihuahua, whom the federal government accuses of opening the door to the CIA without permission. Some 59% of respondents find those accusations credible and 66% support the initiatives promoted by Morena to strip the governor of immunity.

The pillar of social welfare

The most valued area, consolidating an upward trend over these two years, is social welfare at 40%, broken down into scholarships and subsidies for older adults and women. Social programs are one of the main pillars of Sheinbaum’s social policy, which this year raised its budget above one trillion pesos. The areas with the lowest approval remain insecurity at 26%, followed by corruption at 11% and the economy at 4%. Amid the tempest of confronting pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, the Mexican economy is showing increasing signs of weakness.

It narrowly avoided recession at the end of last year and first-quarter data are not encouraging, with growth of just 0.4% and rating agencies’ guns pointed at Mexican debt. “A limited revenue base, energy sovereignty and a redistributive spending model have weakened the foundations of fiscal policy,” said a recent Moody’s report.

Almost half of respondents say insecurity is the country’s main problem, although the perception has improved slightly since the last survey, falling from 48% to 45%, followed by economic problems and corruption, both at 19%, slightly worse than in the March poll. Asked whether the situation has worsened or improved since the start of the six-year term, 58% are optimistic. Yet in the breakdown by area, more than half believe security and the fight against corruption have worsened. In moves largely synchronized with U.S. pressure, the government has increased arrests and strikes on key targets—such as the fall of El Mencho—and drug seizures. Hard data show a 40% drop in homicides. Despite everything, when asked whether the security strategy is yielding results, respondents are almost evenly split.

Sheinbaum’s electoral strength does not seem, in any case, to have suffered greatly. Some 67% of respondents would vote in favor of the president if the recall referendum were held today; it is scheduled for 2028 after the government’s failed attempt—blocked in parliament by its allies—to move it forward to next year. That move sought precisely to capitalize on the president’s pull in the midterm elections. Morena also remains the favorite for next year’s midterms, where the ruling party risks losing its majority in both chambers. The gap with PAN, second in voting intention, is more than 20 points, although Morena’s lead has fallen almost 10 points from its highs last year.

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