The summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, in five key points: From Taiwan to AI and rare earths

Ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s imminent visit to Beijing, China’s Foreign Ministry has dusted off an old Soviet Cold War concept: “peaceful coexistence.” This is the current state of affairs between the two superpowers: “The world is too small for China and the United States to be at odds,” argues a propaganda video, laden with meaning, released Monday.

The highly anticipated summit between Trump and Xi Jinping, the leaders of the world’s two largest economies, will take place between Wednesday and Friday, and it marks the first trip by a U.S. president to Beijing in almost nine years. Only after the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 was there a similar hiatus until the two countries resumed diplomatic relations.

The meeting could be seen as a new episode in an old battle: Trump himself was the last to visit the Chinese capital in 2017. At that time, in his first term, he had only been in office for nine months. He went to Beijing complaining about the “unsustainable” trade imbalance, was dazzled by his host’s impressive display, and, upon returning, unleashed a trade war that continues to this day.

This time, the meeting follows the fragile entente sealed between the two leaders in Busan (South Korea) last October, after a year of trade barbs in which Beijing and Washington showed that they have weapons capable of making a considerable hole in each other, a kind of “mutually assured destruction,” to continue with the nomenclature of the Soviet era — although, in this case, in economic terms — with the capacity to drag a good part of the planet to the brink of the abyss.

The visit will undoubtedly be a grand affair, with the People’s Republic pulling out all the stops to entertain its guest. However, the circumstances are complicated. The war in Iran — Beijing’s major oil supplier — has introduced a new thorny element into a bilateral relationship that is as tense as it is essential for both countries.

The United States arrives at the meeting in a different position than it would have liked, at a time of relative weakness: the war in the Middle East has impacted alliances with its partners in Europe and Asia, allies’ trust in Washington has weakened, its arsenals have been reduced, and the unpopularity of the war is putting pressure on Trump to reach an agreement with Tehran.

Trump may need Beijing’s support, which puts Xi in a strong position. For its part, China aims to establish a period of strategic stability in the relationship between the two powers, while simultaneously promoting its priorities: Taiwan — above all — tariffs, and trade in general.

The war in Iran

The conflict in the Middle East had already forced the postponement of the meeting, which had initially been scheduled for mid-April. The U.S. president needs to deal with rising fuel prices and public discontent that could lead the Republicans to lose their majority in both chambers in November, according to polls. And with it, the ability to implement the presidential agenda.

Trump may need Xi’s help to get Iran to agree to a deal, to halt all arms transfers to Tehran, and to get Beijing to agree to reduce or eliminate its purchases of crude oil from the Islamic Republic. But, in turn, China is also harmed by the continuation of the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. “The extent to which Iran is a dominant theme at this summit will be key to seeing what concrete results and agreements are reached,” explains Brett Fetterly of the consultancy The Asia Group (TAG).

The face-to-face meeting follows a visit to Beijing last week by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which highlighted the influence the Asian giant wields over Tehran. Araghchi thanked the Chinese government for its “tireless efforts” to prevent the crisis from escalating, and expressed confidence in reaching a solution to the Hormuz strangulation: the issue, he stated, “could be resolved very soon.”

Taiwan

This is undoubtedly the central issue of this visit for China. Beijing may be seeking to persuade Trump to change the official language the United States uses to refer to the democratically governed island, adopting terms more favorable to the position of the People’s Republic, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve annexation.

“They would like him to say something like he opposes Taiwanese independence, or that he supports peaceful unification. And they would love for him to say something that could undermine the authority of [Taiwanese] President Lai Ching-Te,” notes Melanie Hart, a former China advisor at the U.S. State Department and currently with the Atlantic Council think tank.

The importance the Chinese government attaches to this issue should not be underestimated. “The Taiwan question is at the core of China’s fundamental interests and the political foundation of China-U.S. relations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian asserted last week. He demanded that Washington fully respect the ambiguous body of agreements governing the status quo: “An indispensable condition for ensuring the stable, healthy, and sustainable development” of ties. It is expected that Xi will pressure Trump to delay or reduce U.S. arms sales to Taipei.

“I will have that conversation with President Xi,” the Republican leader declared on Monday when questioned by the press about military support for Taiwan.

Trade, tariffs, and rare earths

The underlying current at the summit is largely commercial. The two leaders took a breather in October after escalating the tariff dispute to stratospheric levels, and after Beijing demonstrated, with its restrictions on rare earth exports, that it has ample capacity to retaliate. In the Chinese capital, there is a prevailing sense of victory in the tariff battle, but also a feeling that the conflict could reignite at any moment.

To get things moving ahead of the summit, the trade envoys from both countries, Scott Bessent and He Lifeng, are scheduled to hold another round of negotiations in South Korea this Wednesday. “The last-minute meeting increases the likelihood that Trump’s trip will yield positive and substantial results,” analysts at Trivium China noted in a recent bulletin. It will serve to finalize agreements and reduce the pressure on the leaders during the face-to-face meeting.

Trump will also be accompanied by a delegation of top executives from U.S. multinationals, including Tim Cook (Apple) and Elon Musk (Tesla), both of whom have very good relations with the Chinese government, which underlines the economic dimension of the meeting.

China “will try, to the extent possible, to get the United States to back down from some of its actions, both regarding tariffs and investigations into Chinese trade practices under Section 301 [with which Trump seeks to impose a new round of tariffs]. If agreements can be reached in which China makes substantial purchases of beef or agricultural products, pork, or Boeing aircraft, Beijing will want to get something in return,” adds Kurt Campbell, founder of the consulting firm TAG and former assistant secretary of state during the administration of Joe Biden.

Washington aims to secure Chinese commitments to purchase, among other things, more than 500 Boeing aircraft. It also seeks purchases of agricultural products such as beef and soybeans, which would boost the farming and livestock industry in the rural states that represent the Republican voter base. Trump also hopes to obtain Beijing’s cooperation on issues such as rare earth elements and fentanyl trafficking. These agreements, which would improve relations, will be key.

Gaining time

“My impression is that Beijing intends to buy time, room to maneuver, and relief from U.S. pressure so it can strengthen itself for the next round of disputes with the United States,” said Jon Czin, director for China at the National Security Council during the Biden administration, in an online chat with correspondents. In his opinion, both leaders are keen to convey that the outcome of the meeting is “positive.”

On the U.S. side, much of the logic behind the current diplomatic approach is also about buying time to strengthen internal resilience regarding rare earth elements: one of the Trump administration’s main concerns is that China could reimpose export controls, which would deal a severe blow to the current strategic stability of the relationship.

Artificial intelligence

AI could be on the summit’s agenda, according to some media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal. The aim of the discussions would be to establish security measures before a crisis occurs, address the risks posed by AI models that behave unpredictably, autonomous military systems, or attacks by non-state actors. Some analysts, however, consider meaningful dialogue unlikely: “The lack of trust between the two sides is profound. And they remain determined to outdo each other,” says Trivium. “It is unlikely that either side will be willing to compromise.”

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition