Netanyahu digs in on his war in Lebanon, as Iran warns that dialogue with the United States will become ‘meaningless’

Representatives from Iran and the United States are still preparing for their first meeting to negotiate an end to the war, scheduled for Saturday, and the 15‑day ceasefire meant to allow dialogue is already dangerously fragile. On just the second day of the truce, nearly all disputes revolve around Lebanon.

The mediator, Pakistan, was clear from the outset that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire, but U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have since argued the opposite. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, warned on Thursday that talks in Islamabad would be meaningless if Lebanon remains under attack. And EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has called for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire and accused Israel of putting it under “severe strain.”

Netanyahu, however, has turned a deaf ear and raised the stakes, warning that he will continue to strike Hezbollah “with force” and “wherever necessary,” increasing the risk of shattering an already fragile ceasefire. After killing more than 200 people the previous day, the Israeli military continued its bombardment on Thursday and ordered another urgent displacement of residents in Dahiya, the Shiite suburbs of Beirut. As a result, Iran has reversed its decision to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Hezbollah has resumed attacks, firing 30 projectiles at northern Israel.

The ceasefire had briefly sparked optimism by averting the mass bloodshed with which Trump had threatened Iran, but renewed tensions in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz have swiftly replaced it with global concern.

Especially after U.S. President Donald Trump realigned himself with Netanyahu and excluded Lebanon from the agreement. This is even though Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif explicitly said hours earlier that the ceasefire covered “everywhere, including Lebanon.”

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh revealed on Thursday that his country was on the verge of responding to Israel’s brutal bombing campaign in Lebanon, but Pakistan persuaded them to refrain. “You cannot ask for a ceasefire and then accept terms and conditions, accept all the areas that a ceasefire is applied to, and name Lebanon, exactly Lebanon in that, and then your ally [Israel] just starts a massacre,” he protested in an interview with the BBC.

The deputy foreign minister urged Washington to choose “between war and ceasefire,” and refused to reveal whether Iran’s representatives would attend peace negotiations if Israel continues attacking Hezbollah. Tehran faces a dilemma: the Lebanese militia — which it finances and arms — opened a new front a month ago precisely in its support, after Israel killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and following a year of ceasefire violations in Lebanon marked by near‑daily airstrikes.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz’s assessment of the situation offers little cause for optimism: “Hezbollah is desperate for a ceasefire,” he said on Thursday. And Iran fears that “Israel will crush Hezbollah.”

As both sides put it, a finger remains on the trigger — an image used this week by both Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Underscoring the uncertainty, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency has extended its recommendation that airlines avoid airspace over the Middle East and the Gulf until April 24, covering the full 15‑day ceasefire.

Dialogue in Islamabad

A Pakistani source familiar with the talks told Reuters that the inclusion of Lebanon and Yemen — where the Houthis warned on Thursday that they could resume missile attacks against Israel — in the ceasefire “will be discussed [at the upcoming negotiations] and we will settle it.” In Islamabad, authorities have already sealed off a perimeter around the hotel where the peace talks are set to begin.

On Thursday, Pezeshkian issued a statement on the social media platform X, describing the attacks on Lebanon as a “flagrant violation” of the ceasefire agreement and “a dangerous sign of deception and lack of commitment” to any deals that might be reached with the United States beginning Saturday in Islamabad. “The continuation of these actions will render negotiations meaningless […] Iran will never abandon its Lebanese sisters and brothers,” he added.

Israel announced that in the previous day’s wave of airstrikes — 160 in just 10 minutes, according to the military — it killed Ali Yusef Harshi, the personal secretary of Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s top leader. Qassem himself is also a target and, sooner or later, “his time will come,” Defence Minister Katz warned on Wednesday.

Once again, the other central issue is the Strait of Hormuz, the main transit route for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply and other vital goods such as fertilisers. Khatibzadeh said Iran would “guarantee security for safe passage” if Israeli attacks on Lebanon cease. Technically, the ceasefire’s entry into force is conditional on the strait’s reopening, turning it into a major point of leverage just as the truce is getting under way.

For now, Iran will limit traffic to 15 vessels a day, according to a senior Iranian source cited by TASS. Tehran partially closed the strait — which links the Gulf to the Indian Ocean — in retaliation for the Israeli‑U.S. attack of February 28 that marked the start of the war.

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