EU explores sending military and civilian missions to Ukraine to guarantee security

The European Union does not want to be sidelined in the debate on the future protection of Ukraine. The bloc is even considering becoming involved militarily and with civil missions to deter a future attack from Russia, after a potential peace agreement is reached. The EU, according to the draft conclusions of the Special European Council convened Thursday and to which EL PAÍS has had access, is exploring resorting to the instruments of the common security and defense policy, which includes patrol operations, missions to strengthen national security, and the deployment of military forces under a European flag, such as those already involved in the Atalanta anti-piracy mission in the Red Sea or supporting the Mozambican army.

“The European Union and the Member States are ready to continue to contribute to security guarantees on the basis of their respective competences and capabilities,” says the document of conclusions that the leaders of the 27 member states will discuss Thursday at an emergency meeting in Brussels, in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will participate. It will not be an easy discussion. The Hungarian prime minister, the nationalist-populist Viktor Orbán, who has close ties to the Kremlin, has threatened to veto any conclusion on Ukraine.

The debate on these security guarantees is “still to mature,” says a senior EU source. In fact, the member states have not specified which instruments of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) they are analyzing. However, by putting the option on the table, for the first time, they have set out the path for the day after the war launched by Russia ends. And, above all, they have made clear the intention of the majority of the EU nations to get involved in some way in maintaining peace in Ukraine against the threat of future Russian aggression. Currently, the EU has 21 ongoing missions and operations within the framework of the CSDP, including 12 civilian, eight military and one mixed civilian-military initiative.

The EU’s stance — with a change of tone on defense and announcements of rearmament — comes at the height of a rift with U.S. President Donald Trump, who is increasingly showing indications of rapprochement with Russia while pressuring Europe to manage its own security alone, including that of Ukraine. In this turbulent context, the European Union is losing ground in the face of the leadership of France and the United Kingdom, which have had direct dialogue with Washington. London and Paris are promoting the formation of a “coalition of the willing” that would bring together several countries to help protect Ukraine with troops on the ground, intelligence, and logistical contributions.

Despite everything, Europe does not want to completely cut the umbilical cord to its American ally. The future security architecture of Ukraine still depends on the United States. Most European countries do not want to join the future coalition if Washington does not get involved in some way — if not with a presence on the ground, with air support and intelligence — because they consider it essential for the model to be robust and to truly act as a deterrent to Vladimir Putin. “Security guarantees must be adopted in consultation with Ukraine, as well as with like-minded NATO partners,” stresses the draft conclusions of the extraordinary summit Thursday in Brussels, pending discussion and still subject to change.

“The message from most member states is that we must continue to support Ukraine militarily,” said a senior Brussels official. “The next step is security guarantees and seeing what the EU can do. The first step is to strengthen [Ukraine’s] army in the face of any possible aggression,” the source continued. The so-called “porcupine strategy” — arming Kyiv in such a way that it would be indigestible in the event of any aggression — would be the first security guarantee, and the most desirable and feasible for most EU partners and European allies. “Another dimension is to analyze whether the Union is willing to contribute in other ways, such as putting troops on the ground. This is still a premature debate, because there is still no ceasefire. But we cannot ignore that there are member states that have already said they would be willing,” insisted the senior official.

In this discussion on security guarantees and how such a shield would be built, the EU seeks to join with other like-minded allies. European Council President António Costa, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security Kaja Kallas will hold a meeting by videoconference on Friday with countries that are not members of the EU — such as the United Kingdom, Norway or Turkey, but who have participated in the debates on shielding Ukraine, for example last week in London — to update them on the debate at the summit.

Threat of veto from Hungary

However, the threat of a veto by Hungary — which has gone so far as to demand that the EU enter into direct negotiations with Russia — on any conclusion supporting Ukraine could thwart all efforts by the majority to show a common position. Hence, some voices believe that the other member states should move forward. They even advocate speaking, in terms of this security architecture, of “the Europeans” instead of “the European Union.”

U.S. negotiations with Russia for peace in Ukraine and to restore bilateral relations between the two powers are moving quickly, spurred on by Trump. And the Republican, who has suspended military aid to Ukraine and the provision of intelligence information, continues to pressure Zelenskiy to accept some of his conditions. The EU has not managed to get a seat at the negotiating table and it has few levers of pressure to achieve this with a U.S. administration that is also threatening the bloc and its 450 million citizens with a trade war.

One of these levers is precisely the contribution to shielding Ukraine with a deployment of troops. A few weeks ago, Washington asked NATO’s European allies what military equipment they have and what they would do in the event of a Russian attack.

The leaders of the 27 insist: “There can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine. There can be no negotiations affecting European security without Europe being involved,” they say in the document, which is still pending debate and may still be subject to change. They add: “The security of Ukraine, of Europe, and of the world are intertwined.”

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