António Costa: ‘We should not speculate on what Trump is going to do’

Despite its labyrinthine structure, António Costa is unlikely to get lost within the headquarters of the European Council, the institution representing the leaders of EU member states in Brussels, which he officially takes the helm of on Sunday. The Portuguese socialist is no stranger to this institution, having spent much time there during the eight years (2015-2023) he served as Portugal’s prime minister, participating in the often marathon-like summits of European leaders that he is now set to head for the next five years.

This is no easy task, especially in times of intense political polarization and uncertainty, both within the European Union and beyond its borders. However, Costa, a seasoned politician from Lisbon, has thoroughly prepared for the role. In an interview with several European newspapers, including EL PAÍS, he revealed that he has already met with 25 of the 27 EU leaders (excluding Bulgaria and Romania, due to their ongoing government formation) to understand their priorities — “for all of them, immigration is a top priority,” although they differ on how to address it — and to find out what they expect from him during these turbulent times, which Costa believes require a crucial trait: listening. Listening to politicians, but, above all, “listening to citizens and acting for them.”

Costa also aims to speak as soon as possible with the man who, despite being the biggest international unknown at the moment, will play a significant role throughout his mandate: Donald Trump. In the face of widespread uncertainty, the Portuguese leader, an unabashed optimist, believes it is unwise to “speculate on what the new Trump administration will do.” However, Costa is not waiting for the new Republican administration to take office in late January. “I will try to contact him after December 1. And of course, we will coordinate our positions on the basis of our common interests and a long-term alliance,” he says. “Our dialogue with Trump has to be developed on the basis of the mutual interest of Europe and the United States. We are allies, partners and friends. I am sure we will find a good way to engage when he is in the White House.”

When asked if he plans to visit Donald Trump at his residence in Florida, as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently did, Costa responds with a smile, “No, I can use the phone.” Despite the heavy workload and packed agenda, Costa maintains his characteristic composure. In addition to his planned outreach to Trump, he has another important meeting on the horizon: “I’ve arranged to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to personally tell him that we will support Ukraine for as long as it takes and as much as necessary.”

Costa is acutely aware that these are challenging times, even for a veteran like him. A year ago, many thought his political career was over when he resigned as prime minister of Portugal amid a judicial investigation involving his inner circle, an investigation that has since lost momentum. The Europe Costa will now lead at the European Council is facing multiple crises. There is the war in Ukraine on its doorstep, and the shadow of another potential conflict in the Middle East looms large — one in which the 27 EU member states have yet to find a unified stance. “We are 27 countries with 27 different histories that look at the world with 27 different points of view,” says Costa. “It’s not easy, it takes time, but the important thing is the will to achieve it.” This division has been most apparent in discussions surrounding the Middle East crisis, one of the issues that has highlighted the fractures within the EU.

Costa will also have to navigate a trade struggle, not only with China but likely with a U.S. administration under Trump, which has threatened half the world with tariffs.

All of this is happening within a Europe whose traditional Franco-German leadership is faltering, amid growing political polarization among citizens, many of whom seem increasingly drawn to right-wing solutions. This shift is already visible in European institutions: the European Parliament now includes more far-right forces than ever before, and the new European Commission has tilted to the right, with 14 commissioners from the European People’s Party and even a vice-president from a far-right political family. This rightward shift is reflected in the European Council as well, where far-right leaders such as Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán now sit.

The situation does not deter Costa. The Portuguese leader, who insists he has not forgotten his socialist roots but emphasizes that as president of the European Council, he must act “above” his political family and even his country, views these social and political fractures as one of his greatest challenges.

“We live in times when our democracies are, at the same time, more polarized and more and more fragmented than ever,” he says. “Perhaps this is the new normal. It is more complex, but democracy is about the will of the citizens, and this is the result of their decision. Our democracy is more diverse, but it works.” Displaying what Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has called his “chronic and sometimes irritating” optimism, Costa insists: “It is important that citizens feel that we are listening to them and that we are working for them.”

This mindset also applies to his relationships with other EU leaders. Unlike his predecessor, Belgium’s Charles Michel, who often clashed with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Costa assures that he has an “excellent political and personal relationship” with the German conservative, with whom, he says, he has been meeting regularly since September. Costa’s first mission, he says, is to “contribute to the unity of the Member States.” His “second mission” is to “guarantee fluid relations between the institutions, ensuring the Union’s representation in foreign and security policy,” but, he emphasizes once again, it is equally important to “bring the institutions closer to citizens, to boost their confidence in the EU.”

Costa’s diplomatic approach is evident in his European tour. His first stop was in Rome, where he had “a very good chat” with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. “I’m sure we will work very well together,” the socialist leader confides. Costa is also unshaken by Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for frequently putting up barriers against Brussels to score national points. “We may not share the same position on key issues, but I’ve always seen him take a constructive approach in the Council to overcome difficulties,” he observes, pointing to the December 2023 summit where the EU approved the historic decision to open negotiations for Ukraine’s EU membership. To avoid explicitly supporting the decision, but without blocking it, Orbán left the room to grab a coffee just as the point was being approved.

“Sometimes we need creativity to solve problems. Unanimity is not always spontaneous, but leaders are willing to solve problems and make decisions,” Costa reflects.

The socialist politician plans to continue fostering such creativity. In fact, he is already organizing, together with Poland’s Donald Tusk, what he calls a “defense brainstorming day” with European leaders. He also plans to invite NATO’s Secretary General, and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Set for February 3 “near Brussels,” this informal meeting is aimed at giving leaders more space to discuss issues without the pressure of having to announce results.

“We will discuss our relationship with NATO, what we can do between the 27 member states, what capabilities we need at a European level, and, of course, how to finance it,” Costa explains. While he acknowledges that positions still need to be aligned, he stresses that no topic will be off-limits, not even proposals such as issuing European defense bonds. “Many leaders say they do not agree, but no one says it is impossible,” says Costa. “What I have seen with everyone is that they are facing this with an open mind, they are aware of what we have to do, and they are trying to find a good balance between the different solutions.” He will have his work cut out for him.

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