Sinwar’s death presents Netanyahu with an opportunity to reach a Gaza ceasefire deal

Shortly after the Hamas attack in October 2023, a group of cowboys from HaYovel, an evangelical Zionist organization in the United States that annually sends hundreds of volunteers to Jewish settlement farms in the West Bank, distributed 10,000 decks of cards to Israeli troops. These cards bore the names and images of the 52 most wanted figures in the Islamist movement. The idea was inspired by a similar deck distributed by American intelligence to soldiers during the 2003 Iraq invasion, which featured Saddam Hussein as the ace of spades — the highest-value card — because everyone in Washington understood that his capture (which took place months later and ended in his execution) would mean the difference between victory and defeat.

In the Hamas deck, Yahya Sinwar was not the highest-value card, but the queen of hearts (in a sexist attempt to humiliate him). Nevertheless, it was widely understood in Israel that without eliminating Sinwar, the cycle of revenge would remain incomplete, even though Israel claimed 30 of the 52 figures on the cards were already dead. The death of this symbolic figure now provides Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with an opportunity to stage a victory photo that could pave the way for a ceasefire in Gaza — something he has resisted for months.

Netanyahu hinted at this after his conversation with U.S. President Joe Biden. According to a statement released late Thursday by Netanyahu’s office, both leaders “agreed that there is an opportunity to advance the release of the hostages and [to] work together to achieve this objective.”

Indeed, as soon as Sinwar’s death was confirmed, the Hostages Families Forum — which represents the families of the 101 remaining hostages (both dead and alive) in Gaza — urged Netanyahu to seize this opportunity, echoing other voices, such as Dennis Ross, the former U.S. special envoy for the Middle East. Ross, who mediated Israeli-Palestinian negotiations under then-president Bill Clinton, stated: “With the Hamas leaders in Gaza gone, Israel should say it will end the war, provided the hostages are released.”

For some time now, Sinwar’s demise has been viewed as the ladder Netanyahu needed to descend from the lofty and unrealistic goal of “total victory” with some measure of dignity. However, this exit strategy would have made more sense months ago, when Netanyahu’s popularity was at a historic low, and growing doubts clouded the nation’s view of the invasion’s strategic purpose. Today, the situation has shifted. The prime minister is once again leading in the polls, buoyed by recent successes.

What’s more, the same intelligence services that failed to foresee the October 7, 2023 attack have since regained some of their lost prestige. First, they remotely detonated thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies, equipment commissioned by Hezbollah — a feat that has garnered more attention for Mossad’s technical skill than for the operation’s death or injury toll. Then, in what Netanyahu described as the elimination of Hezbollah’s leadership, the Mossad orchestrated the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, his designated successor, Hashem Safieddine, and Safieddine’s successor, along with nearly all of Hezbollah’s military leadership.

Eran Etzion, a former deputy director-general of Israel’s National Security Council, captured the prevailing sentiment in a post on the social network X. Rather than gloating over Sinwar’s potential death, he argued, a “competent government” would take advantage of Hamas’s weakened state by offering public amnesty to anyone who surrenders the hostages, monetary rewards for immediate and reliable information about their locations, and an announcement of readiness for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

Etzion warned, however, of what an “incompetent government” would likely do: “Celebrate the elimination and credit it to military pressure, which has actually been significantly reduced; attempt to escalate the fighting in Gaza, even at the expense of the hostages’ lives; and persist in efforts to prolong and expand the war, with a focus on attacking Iran and drawing the United States into the conflict.”

Israel’s focus is now on Lebanon, where it conducts daily bombings and orders evacuations, pushing the population farther from the border. Simultaneously, Israeli forces are attempting to advance on the ground in southern Lebanon, though they recently announced the loss of five soldiers. With Hamas largely neutralized and reduced to pockets of armed resistance, the primary battle is now against Hezbollah. This is so significant that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly favored launching a war with Lebanon as soon as Israel was shelled from this front (the day after the Hamas attack), rather than waiting a year, as eventually happened. A ceasefire in Gaza would allow Israel to transfer troops from Gaza to the Lebanon front, setting the stage for what may become another prolonged war of attrition.

Before killing Sinwar, Israel had assassinated his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, as well as the second-in-command, Saleh al-Aruri. The military leader Mohamed Deif and the third-ranking figure, Marwan Issa, are also presumed dead. While Hamas claims that no individual is irreplaceable — arguing that ideas matter more than names — their most prominent remaining leader is Khaled Mashal, who resides in Qatar, one of three countries negotiating an end to the war. In Gaza, it is expected that the insurgency will be led by Yahya Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed Sinwar.

“Mission accomplished”

“Mission accomplished,” Gallant posted in a message on X, along with a photo of the crossed-out faces of Deif, Nasrallah, and Sinwar. But George W. Bush also declared “mission accomplished” aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln in 2003 — eight years before Barack Obama withdrew U.S. troops and Iraq plunged into chaos, claiming a million lives. In other words, the death of the Hamas leader does not signal the automatic end of the war. Just as the assassination of Nasrallah in southern Beirut last month did not halt the rocket fire on Israel.

For one, Sinwar was not seen as the primary obstacle to a ceasefire agreement. According to many in private circles, the real obstacle is Netanyahu. Sinwar’s death also comes during a period of war euphoria in Israel, with the hostage issue sidelined, military momentum on Israel’s side, and Israel’s looming retaliation against Iran for its missile attack last month. In announcing Sinwar’s death, Netanyahu seized the moment to boast that Sinwar was in Rafah, and took credit for ordering the invasion of the area in May, despite “all the pressures” from international leaders, including President Biden, who had marked Rafah as a “red line” — a line now all but forgotten.

Benny Gantz, a former minister under Netanyahu and ex-chief of staff, who saw his popularity drop from first to second place in the polls after leaving the wartime government in June, acknowledged that while the fall of Sinwar is an “important achievement,” the army “will continue operating in the Gaza Strip for years to come.”

As a ceasefire draws nearer, another issue has become clear: Israel currently lacks a viable plan to replace Hamas in the Gaza Strip in the foreseeable future. The government has appointed a military humanitarian aid officer and has recently intensified its encirclement of northern Gaza — the very area where Sinwar was not located. Netanyahu has stated that Israel does not intend to rebuild the Israeli settlements it unilaterally evacuated in 2005. However, up to 10 of his Likud Party’s 32 lawmakers are set to attend a conference next week near the Palestinian enclave, under the slogan “Preparing to Resettle in Gaza,” where they plan to declare, “Gaza is ours, forever.”

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition