Maps | How the Kursk offensive has changed the front lines in Ukraine war

The summer months have brought significant movement on the front lines of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Kyiv’s offensive, launched on August 6, took advantage of the element of surprise to advance into Russia’s Kursk region. The attack, however, has failed to divert troops from the Kremlin’s attack in the Donetsk region, where the Russian army is advancing relentlessly. There, Moscow’s troops have been taking towns as they move in the direction of Pokrovsk, a key base for Ukraine’s defense.

The following chart compares the advances by both sides over the past month. Ukraine has occupied some 1,150 square kilometres in its Kursk offensive: the surprise attack allowed Kyiv’s forces to take control of a large area defended by inexperienced troops in the first few days. Meanwhile, in the same period, Russia has added around 300 square kilometres to its conquests on Ukrainian soil, of which it controls around 18% (see methodology).

The Russian invasion of Donbas has extended a front line that had been consolidated since the early stages of the war. Ukraine’s strategy to counter this enemy advance was to take the war to Russia: following instructions from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, up to 15,000 military personnel stormed Russian soil on August 6, the first land invasion Moscow has faced since World War II.

Ukraine’s progress in Kursk has slowed as the weeks have passed and the incursion has not yielded the anticipated results. Zelenskiy has said that the attack was intended to force the redeployment of the Russian troops in Donetsk, which would allow the Ukrainian defenders to rest and regroup. So far, this has not been achieved. Russian propaganda describes the Ukrainian incursion as a serious mistake by Kyiv, even though it caught the Kremlin off guard in its early stages. President Vladimir Putin has downplayed the effectiveness of the attack: “The enemy’s goal was to make us nervous and force us to redeploy troops in order to stop our offensive in Donbas. Has it worked? No,” the Russian president said last Thursday.

Progress of Russian troops in Donbas

The advance of Russian troops in the Donbas region (made up of the the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces and Russia’s main objective) has intensified in recent weeks, especially in the direction of Pokrovsk, a strategic town that serves as a logistical hub for Ukrainian troops. If Pokrovsk falls into enemy hands, Kyiv will be forced to send supplies to the Donetsk front by less direct routes, which will affect its ability to react, according to the British Ministry of Defence. Russian troops are less than 10 kilometres (6.2 miles) from the city, although their advance is expected to slow down due to the added difficulty of entering urban areas. More than 60,000 people lived in the municipality before the war.

Putin’s army is also pushing towards the nearby town of Toretsk, in the north, and has begun the siege of Vuhledar in the south. It is also continuing to launch attacks on Ukrainian territory far from the front lines. On August 26, Moscow carried out one of the largest bombings of the war: the Ukrainian energy network in 15 provinces was hit with more than 100 missiles and over 100 drones. The advance of Russian troops in the east of the country is constant, and capturing Pokrovsk would bring the Kremlin closer to its goal of controlling the entire province of Donetsk. The attacks in the area, however, have failed to break the Ukrainian defensive lines, according to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The front line in the area has moved about 40 kilometers (25 miles) since last October, and this gain has come at significant human cost to Russian troops, the think tank points out in its latest report.

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