The month that shook Venezuela (again): Chavismo digs in and represses hope for change

The Venezuelan political conflict has accelerated in the last month as it had not done since 2019. The presidential election on July 28 triggered a chain reaction with multiple effects: Chavismo, the governing force, has chosen to entrench itself in its unverified claim that President Nicolás Maduro won the election, while the opposition insists that the winner was their candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, and demands that the government make public the voting records. The goal of the Bolivarian apparatus is to corner its adversaries, led by the disqualified opposition leader María Corina Machado, and play the attrition game as it has done on other occasions. But this time, suspicions of serious irregularities on election day have caused an enormous shake-up in the foundations of Chavismo. Venezuela is once again in the spotlight of the international community; the president and his hardcore of aides are increasingly isolated, while tension increases and fear of repression spreads. In this climate, both the opposition and the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) will mobilize their followers this Wednesday in Caracas in two parallel marches.

Machado and González Urrutia have been holed up in a safe place for weeks to avoid reprisals. Their teams have been decimated by arrests and police harassment. The opposition candidate was summoned twice this week by the Attorney General’s Office, which accuses him of, among other crimes, “conspiracy” for publishing on a website the records that dismantle the official version of events and support his victory. Chavista leaders are trying to corner the opposition through judicial action and propaganda, to take away their visibility. That is why the parallel march called by Machado aims precisely to keep the spirit alive on the street, as the opposition did five years ago. There are similarities, but also substantial differences with the events of 2019, when Juan Guaidó proclaimed himself interim president. In this case elections have been held, and Maduro has not shown the world evidence of his own victory.

The opposition demonstration is scheduled to be held on Francisco de Miranda Avenue, in the eastern end of Caracas, at the gates of Petare, one of the most densely populated slums in Latin America. The deployment of the so-called “Bolivarian Fury,” a social tool used by the PSUV to activate its grassroots, has also contributed in recent days to making the atmosphere more tense.

Chavismo, on the other hand, is seeking to settle the dispute over the election results. For the first time, it has called on its supporters to “celebrate the victory” instead of rejecting what they describe as an attempted coup by the opposition. In other words, the idea is to interiorize the victory that was announced on the night of July 28 by the National Electoral Council and which weeks later was validated by the Supreme Court, the highest judicial body in the country and controlled by Chavismo. Maduro is still refusing to release the vote tallies despite the growing pressure from the international community and the attempts at mediation promoted by leftist presidents such as Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

On Monday, during the virtual summit of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), Maduro even put the focus on a new electoral process, announcing that in 2025 a “mega-election” will be held for the National Assembly, the governorships and the mayor’s offices of Venezuela. However, he took advantage of the announcement to threaten those who question his victory. That is, those who do not recognize and abide by “the powers of the State” will not be able to participate in those elections. The functioning of these powers is precisely at the core of the conflict, since all the controls of public management and administration are in the hands of Chavismo.

The complaints voiced by the CNE’s principal rector, Juan Carlos Delpino, who recently reported a “lack of transparency and veracity” in the vote, provoked the sudden reaction of Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, who asked for his dismissal and replacement. But beyond the dispute over the vote, it remains to be seen how the crisis will evolve in the coming months. The road ahead remains unpredictable and Maduro has just remodeled the government to try to ensure direct control of strategic sectors such as oil and the police forces. However, the long transition period between election and inauguration also opens up new scenarios.

Maduro is expected to officially take office in January 2025. There are more than four months left in which many factors can change. Until then, attempts at mediation driven from abroad will continue. The consequences of the November elections in the United States, in which the current vice president, Kamala Harris, will face former president Donald Trump, are still unclear. But there are no signs that Chavismo is willing to give in. On the contrary, the latest signs show a willingness to redouble pressure on the opposition while, at the same time, Maduro has refused to open up to a possible dialogue. He even accused the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, of “pointing his rifles and cannons” at Caracas. Borrell had asked for transparency, a word that on July 28 became taboo in the circles of power of Chavismo.

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