Venezuela’s political crisis enters uncharted territory

The Venezuelan crisis is entering uncharted territory. A week after the high turnout of the July 28 presidential elections, there are still no verifiable results, and Chavismo — the political movement led by President Nicolás Maduro based on the ideas of the late Hugo Chávez — is showing its most repressive side amid the growing suspicions of election fraud.

The opposition is defending itself as best it can, but the persecution is taking a toll on its organizational strength. By publishing online the tally sheets from the results — a key element in the election — the entire world, from journalists, data experts, international observers such as the Carter Center, have been able to conduct analyses that cast doubt on the verdict of the National Electoral Council (CNE) that declared Nicolás Maduro the winner.

The international community, with the United States on one side and Brazil, Mexico and Colombia on the other, is trying to mediate, but is not sure what to do. Even traditional allies of Chavismo, such as Argentina’s former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, have called for the tally sheets to be published “for the sake of Chávez’s legacy.” At the same time, there is a growing wave of dissident Chavistas, close to Chavéz, who are confronting Maduro. If a week ago, it was believed that the presidential elections would serve as a way out of the prolonged Venezuelan conflict, now it is difficult to see where the path that the crisis has now taken will lead.

The government has unleashed an open, televised and unprecedentedly violent persecution against protesters, political leaders, activists and, of course, the heads of the opposition leadership, María Corina Machado, presidential candidate Edmundo González and the leaders of the Unitary Platform. Police and intelligence services are on the streets hunting down opponents as part of the so-called “Operation Tun Tun.” The state has issued a widespread propaganda, warning that security forces will knock on the doors of Venezuelans’ homes to arrest them. The fear is also being felt on social media, where people have changed their profile photos and their contact details, and deleted past messages that may seem critical of the government. Venezuelans have stopped talking.

The Attorney General’s Office says it has arrested more than 1,200 people in just one week. Other sources put the figure at 2,000. These numbers are far higher than those of 2017, when there were four months of protests. The NGO Foro Penal has confirmed that at least 80 teenagers are among those arrested. On television, Maduro, prosecutor Tarek William Saab and Maduro’s No.2, Diosdado Cabello, have called the detainees criminals. Chavismo is continuing to push the theory that the detainees are young migrants who were recruited and trained in the United States, Colombia, Chile and Peru to generate violence during the protests.

The opposition seems to have no other option than to defend itself, limiting its exposure and public appearances — Edmundo González, 74, did not attend the march on Saturday — while it deals with hundreds of arrests of its collaborators and raids on their homes. The strategy, according to various sources, is now to insist on the publication of the tally sheets and to denounce the violation of human rights.

It seems only the international community is in a position to move the Venezuelan crisis. It is seeking a solution to the new conflict, but after a long history of stalled talks, from Doha to Barbados and passing through Mexico, it is not clear whether it is possible to negotiate with Maduro and his leadership. This week, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico are expected to work further on their plan to find a solution. A meeting of foreign ministers in Venezuela has not been ruled out, but this would only take place if there are guarantees of progress. The plan of the three leftist powers in Latin America involves an “impartial” verification of the tally sheets and a dialogue between Maduro and Edmundo González that does not involve María Corina Machado, a point that has been rejected by a large part of the opposition.

Maduro has taken the conflict over the results to a safe ground, the Supreme Court, controlled by the ruling party. This move appeared to have been brewing since the beginning of the year, when changes were made to the composition of the magistrates that make up the court. The president of the Electoral Chamber, Caryslia Rodríguez, became president of the Supreme Court despite not having a judicial career. Rodríguez was an active member of the ruling PSUV party until 2021, when she encouraged people to participate in the party’s primaries to choose regional candidates. Judge Edgar Gavidia, the brother of the ex-husband of the first lady Cilia Flores, was appointed as vice president. Tania D’Amelio, who was a deputy for Chavismo and then director of the CNE for 15 years, was also appointed to the top court, according to investigations by the NGO Acceso a la Justicia.

For the dispute over the results to reach the Supreme Court, the president of the CNE Elvis Amoroso — a close friend of Maduro and Flores — remained silent for almost five days. On Friday, he gave new figures that still do not clarify the results. The National Electoral Council remained closed in the week after the election. The CNE claims it is the victim of an alleged conspiracy, orchestrated by opponents in exile from North Macedonia, to attack the CNE’s automated system during the transmission of the votes. That’s why they claim they have not released the full results. It is also allegedly the reason why the CNE did not also hold the post-election audits established by law, including the telecommunications audit, which would allow the organization to unravel what happened during the alleged interruption in the transmission of votes that was made through an encrypted communication to the state broadcaster Cantv.

After calling on the presidential candidates to request the collected tally sheets, the Supreme Court finally gave the CNE a deadline of 72 hours to present the results. The opposition published some 25,000 tally sheets of the 30,000 collected from the night of July 28. After polls close, each voting machine prints a tally sheet showing the candidates’ names and the votes each received. These tally sheets are given to present and parties, and sent electronically to the CNE, which is in charge of calculating the totals. The delivery of the data held by the CNE should take place this Monday.

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