More than 1 billion young people will suffer from health problems by 2030

The health and wellbeing of young people worldwide is at a turning point that will shape future generations. Lack of funding, shortcomings in public policies, changes in consumption habits, and challenges caused by climate change, among other factors, have resulted in unequal care for adolescent health and the emergence of conditions related to obesity and mental health disorders on a global scale.

This is highlighted in a study published on Wednesday by The Lancet, which compiles the findings of the Second Lancet Commission on adolescent health and wellbeing — the first to prioritize youth participation. This commission involved young people from 36 countries to identify priorities and develop recommendations by listening to those most affected.

By 2030, it is estimated that there will be two billion adolescents and young people worldwide (aged 10 to 24). Of this total, more than half will live in countries where known health issues such as HIV, early pregnancy, or sexually transmitted infections will increase. What’s more, cases of obesity and mental illnesses, such as depression or climate change-related distress, will also rise.

“The health and wellbeing of adolescents worldwide is at a tipping point, with mixed progress observed over the past three decades,” said Sarah Baird, co-chair of the Commission from George Washington University in the United States. “Whilst tobacco and alcohol use has declined and participation in secondary and tertiary education has increased, excess weight and obesity have risen by up to eight-fold in some countries in Africa and Asia over the past three decades.”

The Commission highlights that today’s adolescents are the first generation to grow up under harsher climate conditions, with the widespread use of digital technologies, and they disproportionately face emerging threats to global health.

“Without targeted action, more than half of the world’s adolescents will be at risk of poor health,” Baird added.

In view of these constantly evolving challenges, experts are urging countries to allocate a big enough budget to care for this demographic and to develop public policies. However, despite adolescents representing 25% of the world’s population and 9% of the disease burden, they currently receive only 2.4% of global aid, according to the study.

According to the Commission, by 2030, young people will have lost years of healthy life due to the increase in mental disorders — a trend that has risen since the pandemic and continues because of the ongoing climate emergency facing the planet.

“Covid-19 highlighted the mental health challenges young people face as a result of isolation, disrupted schooling, and a lack of social interaction,” said Baird.

It is believed that the challenges facing young people and adolescents may worsen due to emerging issues such as the climate crisis, international conflicts, and the rapid transition toward a more digital world. This constant anxiety about the uncertain future has triggered what is called eco-anxiety, a feeling of fear about an impending catastrophe caused by climate change.

The Lancet study found that by 2100, about 1.9 million adolescents will experience a temperature rise close to 2.8ºC, which “will pose catastrophic health risks,” along with food insecurity due to shortages of water and food.

“Young people will be the most affected because they have a longer life expectancy,” said María Pastor Valero, associate professor of preventive medicine at Miguel Hernández University in Spain, who was not involved in the study. “Ruminative thoughts in young people, which are very high in certain more vulnerable populations, cause clinical depression, anxiety, insomnia, and can even cause post-traumatic stress for those who have experienced the effects of climate change firsthand.”

In its systematic review, the Lancet Commission analyzed how climate change affects adolescent mental health and found that both rapid-onset climate disasters, such as hurricanes, and slower-onset effects contribute to mental health conditions.

“There’s no adolescent health without planetary health,” said Surabhi Dogra, Youth Commissioner on the Commission that conducted the study. Her participation, along with that of other young people, was fundamental in creating this assessment.

“There is an urgent need to invest in the future of adolescents,” said Dogra from India. “Adolescent workers in informal sectors, such as agriculture, continue to face exploitation and occupational health hazards. We need to equip adolescents with skills and opportunities to secure jobs in the green and blue economies. Adopting an intergenerational approach is essential for a sustainable, equitable, and healthy future.”

The Commission also highlights that the digital transition offers new opportunities for social interaction, education, employment, and the promotion of adolescent health. However, many key social and emotional experiences now occur online, raising concerns about potential negative impacts on development and wellbeing.

“The Commission also points to areas requiring further research, including the impact of digitalization on adolescent mental health,” Dogra noted. “The Commissioners recommend that the pros and cons of social media need to be weighed to ensure access while preventing digital harms.”

In this regard, experts are calling for increased investment, the creation of public policies, and the active involvement of government and private sector actors, and especially young people from affected regions. This call was previously highlighted by the World Health Organization last year.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that investing in adolescent health is both “a moral imperative and an economic no-brainer,” warning that failing to address these challenges “will not only have serious and life-threatening consequences for young people themselves, but will create spiraling economic costs for societies.”

Dogra shares some conclusions from the working group about where government economic efforts might be focused in the future: “We have identified solutions that require investment to improve mental health, such as exposure to biodiversity, which improves adolescents’ wellbeing and neurocognitive outcomes,” she said.

The Lancet study highlights that current funding for the health and wellbeing of adolescents worldwide is insufficient and poorly targeted. Investment in adolescence programs are as effective as initiatives for young children and are more beneficial than campaigns aimed at adults, yet a lack of leadership and governance has hindered progress on this front.

“We need to ensure that young people’s voices are part of designing solutions from the outset, thus ensuring their participation in public policymaking, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation,” said Baird.

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